Modeling the epidemiological history of plague in Central Asia: Palaeoclimatic forcing on a disease system over the past millennium

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Human cases of plague (<it>Yersinia pestis</it>) infection originate, ultimately, in the bacterium's wildlife host populations. The epidemiological dynamics of the wildlife reservoir therefore determine the abundance, distribution and evolution of the pathogen, which in turn shape the frequency, distribution and virulence of human cases. Earlier studies have shown clear evidence of climatic forcing on contemporary plague abundance in rodents and humans.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We find that high-resolution palaeoclimatic indices correlate with plague prevalence and population density in a major plague host species, the great gerbil (<it>Rhombomys opimus</it>), over 1949-1995. Climate-driven models trained on these data predict independent data on human plague cases in early 20th-century Kazakhstan from 1904-1948, suggesting a consistent impact of climate on large-scale wildlife reservoir dynamics influencing human epidemics. Extending the models further back in time, we also find correspondence between their predictions and qualitative records of plague epidemics over the past 1500 years.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Central Asian climate fluctuations appear to have had significant influences on regional human plague frequency in the first part of the 20th century, and probably over the past 1500 years. This first attempt at ecoepidemiological reconstruction of historical disease activity may shed some light on how long-term plague epidemiology interacts with human activity. As plague activity in Central Asia seems to have followed climate fluctuations over the past centuries, we may expect global warming to have an impact upon future plague epidemiology, probably sustaining or increasing plague activity in the region, at least in the rodent reservoirs, in the coming decades.</p> <p>See commentary: <url>http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7007/8/108</url></p

Surveillance of antimicrobial resistance in the environment - Scientific Opinion of the Panel on Microbial Ecology, Norwegian Scientific Committee for Food and Environment

Source at https://vkm.no/</a

Surveillance of antimicrobial resistance in the environment - Scientific Opinion of the Panel on Microbial Ecology, Norwegian Scientific Committee for Food and Environment

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Surveillance of antimicrobial resistance in the environment - Scientific Opinion of the Panel on Microbial Ecology, Norwegian Scientific Committee for Food and Environment

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Assessment of the risk to Norwegian biodiversity from import and keeping of American bison, European bison, domesticated water buffalo and domesticated yak.Scientific Opinion of the Panel on Alien Organisms and Trade in Endangered Species of the Norwegian Scientific Committee for Food and Environment

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Assessment of the risk to Norwegian biodiversity from import and keeping of American bison, European bison, domesticated water buffalo and domesticated yak. Scientific Opinion of the panel on Alien Organisms and Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) of the Norwegian Scientific Committee for Food and Environment

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Assessment of possible adverse consequences for biodiversity when planting vascular plants outside their natural range in Norway - Scientific Opinion of the Panel on Alien Organisms and Trade in Endangered species (CITES) of the Norwegian Scientific Committee for Food and Environment (VKM)

We sow or plant vascular plant species on a large scale in revegetation and restoration projects in Norway today. Some of the species used are already found in Norway, but many of the species, subspecies or populations used though native are not local, that is, they are regionally alien. A regionally alien species is a species that is native to Norway (has been in Norway since 1800) somewhere in the country, but which has been spread by humans to places in Norway where they do not occur. In theory, and according to the Biodiversity Act, it is desirable to use local seeds or plants to preserve local biodiversity. The aim of this report is to define guidelines that helps prevent the planting of vascular plant species with a high potential for negative effects on local biodiversity. It is assumed that the native or local populations are better adapted to local environmental conditions than populations from other areas or regions, and the risk of harmful genetic changes is therefore considered small when using local plant and seed sources. Arriving at a common definition for the area within which plants are “local” is difficult, though; vascular plant species are numerous (3317 species in mainland Norway, of which more than half are alien species introduced after 1800, Artdatabanken 2015), have different growth forms, different environmental requirements, and different reproductive and dispersal ecology. Even closely related vascular plant species can differ in such characteristics and hence in the extent of the "place" or “area”. The dispersal ecology of a plant species is of great importance for whether the species has genetically distinct populations within its range or not. Different strategies (wind pollination vs. insect pollination, vegetative propagation vs. seed dispersal, large seeds vs. small seeds) have an impact on the degree of gene flow between populations and thus also how locally adapted the species is in different areas. Whether the species has primarily vegetative reproduction or whether it spreads mainly by means of seeds, and whether the seed dispersal takes place ballistically, with wind or water, or by zookori (attached to animals or eaten by animals) determines how far the species can spread and how large gene flow there is between different populations. Whether the species is pollinated by wind or by the help of insects also affects the degree of gene flow differently. In Norway, there is great variation in many biophysical and ecological conditions (climate, topography, hydrology, and geology) over relatively short distances. This means that species that grow only a few meters apart can grow under different environmental conditions. This large variation in environmental conditions - on different spatial scales - can give rise to local genetic adaptation. However, plants have been moved around the landscape for several hundred years by our livestock (as seeds in fur and hooves, and in faeces) from lowland pasture to mountain pasture and along traffic arteries across the country due to the extensive transport of animals and people. Over time, this has led to expanded geographical distribution for several species and increased gene flow between populations over relatively large distances. .............publishedVersionpublishedVersio

An integrated approach to pathogen transmission via environmental reservoirs

To mitigate the effects of zoonotic diseases on human and animal populations, it is critical to understand what factors alter transmission dynamics. Here we assess the risk of exposure to lethal concentrations of the anthrax bacterium, Bacillus anthracis, for grazing animals in a natural system over time through different transmission mechanisms. We follow pathogen concentrations at anthrax carcass sites and waterholes for five years and estimate infection risk as a function of grass, soil or water intake, age of carcass sites, and the exposure required for a lethal infection. Grazing, not drinking, seems the dominant transmission route, and transmission is more probable from grazing at carcass sites 1–2 years of age. Unlike most studies of virulent pathogens that are conducted under controlled conditions for extrapolation to real situations, we evaluate exposure risk under field conditions to estimate the probability of a lethal dose, showing that not all reservoirs with detectable pathogens are significant transmission pathways

Assessment of the risk to Norwegian biodiversity from import and keeping of crustaceans in freshwater aquaria

Introduction The Norwegian Scientific Committee for Food and Environment (VKM) was requested by the Norwegian Environment Agency to assess the risk of negative impacts to biodiversity in Norway resulting from import of crustacean decapods for keeping in freshwater aquariums. VKM was asked to 1) list species of crayfish, crabs and shrimps that are currently kept in freshwater aquaria in Norway, and species that are likely to be kept in freshwater aquaria in Norway within the next 10 years, 2) assess the ability of the species to survive under Norwegian conditions and cause impacts on ecosystems and other species, and 3) state the potential negative effects on the biological diversity of diseases caused by pathogens, regulated under the Norwegian Food Act.Methods The risk assessment, without focus on pathogens, was performed in two steps. First, we used a pre-screening toolkit to identify species of crayfish, crabs and shrimps with potential to become invasive in freshwater habitats in Norway. Each species was given an invasiveness score based on 55 questions on biogeography, ecology, and climate change. In a second step, a full risk assessment, including the potential impacts of pathogens, was conducted on those species receiving the highest invasiveness score. This assessment included questions on the organism’s probability of entry and pathways of entry, establishment and spread, potential impacts on biodiversity, and how climate change scenarios might affect the assessment. Likelyhood and confidence was assessed for each question. In conclusion, each species was designated as either low-, moderate-, or high risk. Many crustacean decapod species are confirmed or suspected carriers of pathogens that can cause mass mortality among native crustaceans. The risk posed by crustaceans as carriers of pathogens may be independent of the environmental risk that they pose through ecological interactions. Therefore, the four crustacean disease pathogens that are regulated under the Norwegian Food Act, were assessed separately. These include Aphanomyces astaci causing crayfish plague, white spot syndrome virus (WSSV) causing white spot disease, Taura syndrome virus (TSV) causing Taura syndrome, and yellow head virus genotype 1 (YHV1) causing yellow head disease. The assessments comprised questions on the pathogen’s probability of entry (as a hitchhiker organism with imported crustaceans), pathways of entry, establishment and spread, and potential impact on crustacean biodiversity. Likelihood and confidence were assessed for each question. In conclusion, each pathogen was designated as either low-, moderate-, or high risk.In a third step, we categorized the likelihood that a crustacean species introduces a pathogen associated with a high- or moderate risk into: I) known chronic carriers, II) suspected chronic carriers, III) suspected situational carrier, IV) possible pathogen transmitters, and V) no direct or circumstantial evidence for carrier status or pathogen transmission in the genus.Results Based on information from the Norwegian Pet Trade Association, the project group listed 112 taxa (mainly species and some genera) of freshwater crayfish, crabs and shrimps that are relevant for trade in Norway. These included 38 crayfish taxa, 28 crab taxa, and 45 shrimp taxa. In addition, one marine crab was included. Sixteen species of crayfish, four species of shrimps, and two species of crabs underwent a full ecological risk assessment. The probabilities of entry both into the aquarium trade in Norway, and potentially further into Norwegian nature, were based on the prevalence of the species in the aquarium trade in Norway. We assumed that all species were equally likely to escape captivity or to be released. The four pathogens regulated under the Norwegian Food Act are either known or potential hazards to biodiversity in Norway. A. astaci is already present in Norway. It is regarded among the greatest threats to European freshwater crayfish, including noble crayfish (Astacus astacus). American freshwater crayfish are either known or suspected chronic carriers of A. astaci, while several crayfish species from other continents, as well as some species of crab and shrimp, may be situational carriers. WSSV is a "non-exotic" list 2 disease. All decapods can be infected by the virus. WSSV is primarily a problem in shrimp farming in Asia, but has spread to America and more recently to Australia. WSSV can cause 100% mortality in noble crayfish at water temperatures above 20 °C. Both TSV and YHV1 are "exotic" list 1 diseases. These can infect and cause high mortality in a limited range of saltwater shrimps. There is no evidence that TSV and YHV1 pose a risk to freshwater crayfish in the Nordic climate, nor is introduction likely through aquarium trade in freshwater crustaceans. Several other pathogens that cause crustacean dirsease are listed by the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE). These were briefly assessed, but not fully risk assessed.Conclusions VKM concluded that the risk of negative impacts on biodiversity caused by ecological interactions following import and private keeping of crayfish is high for Faxonius virilis, Faxonius spp., Procambarus clarkii, P. virginalis, and Pacifastacus leniusculus. These species can displace native crayfish, reduce the abundance of aquatic plants, and cause cascading effects that negatively influence invertebrates, fish, and birds. They can likely establish in Norwegian nature under the current climate conditions. The risk of negative consequences is moderate (with medium confidence) for the crayfish Cambarellus patzcuarensis, Procambarus alleni, Creaserinus fodiens, Cambarellus montezumae, Cherax monticola, Cherax tenuimanus, Faxonius neglectus. Perconon gibbesi of the crabs and Neocaridina davidi and Macrobrachium rosenbergii of the shrimps were associated with a moderate risk with medium confidence. Species associated with medium risk are omnivorous keystone species that will have at least moderate ecological impact on littoral freshwater ecosystems (medium confidence) if established in dense populations. None of the species associated with medium risk are likely to establish today. However, climate change will increase the risk for establishment and resulting ecological impact. The risk for negative impacts caused by the crayfish plague pathogen Aphanomyces astaci is high with high confidence. Crayfish plague can cause up to 100% mortality, and has already eradicated several noble crayfish populations in Norway. For WSSV, the risk for negative impact is moderate with high confidence. The risks associated with TSV and YHV1 are assessed as low for Norwegian crustacean biodiversity. According to the risk assessment of pathogens and the categorization of crustacean species based on their likelihood of being carriers of A. astaci and WSSV, 25 and 13 species of crayfish are associated with a high and medium risk, respectively. Four and 25 species of crabs are associated with a medium and low risk, respectively, and 14 and 31 species of shrimps are associated with medium and low risk, respectively. Notably, all species in the named genera should be regarded as belonging to the given risk category. OIE and general literature provide information of known crustacean diseases along with known susceptible crustacean hosts. However, there is a lack of information regarding carrier status of known and unknown disease pathogens for many exotic crustaceans. In this perspective, all exotic crustaceans should be regarded as potentially infected with a known or unknown pathogen. In order to reduce the risk of spreading diseases, eggs and living or dead animals should under no circumstances be disposed of in nature. The same applies for aquarium water or any material, such as gravel or ornamental plants, that have been in contact with the animals or water in the aquarium. The current permit requirement exemption for import of freshwater organisms that can only survive at temperatures above 5 °C provides no protection against the introduction, establishment, and spread of accompanying pathogens that could cause mass mortality in Norwegian crustacean populations. Finally, we can never predict how, or from which host species, a new disease might emerge. Many pandemics and plagues result from cross-continental pathogen-host jumps often facilitated by human transport, trade, introduction, release, or escape of alien species and associated alien pathogens