Artificially lit surface of Earth at night increasing in radiance and extent

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from AAAS via the DOI in this record.A central aim of the “lighting revolution” (the transition to solid-state lighting technology) is decreased energy consumption. This could be undermined by a rebound effect of increased use in response to lowered cost of light. We use the first-ever calibrated satellite radiometer designed for night lights to show that from 2012 to 2016, Earth’s artificially lit outdoor area grew by 2.2% per year, with a total radiance growth of 1.8% per year. Continuously lit areas brightened at a rate of 2.2% per year. Large differences in national growth rates were observed, with lighting remaining stable or decreasing in only a few countries. These data are not consistent with global scale energy reductions but rather indicate increased light pollution, with corresponding negative consequences for flora, fauna, and human well-being.This article is based upon work from COST Action ES1204 LoNNe, supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology). The authors acknowledge the funding received by ERA-PLANET (www.era-planet.eu) funded by the EC as part of H2020 (contract no. 689443). NOAA’s participation was funded by NASA’s VIIRS science program, contract number NNH15AZ01I. ASM’s contribution was funded by ORISON project (H2020-INFRASUPP-2015-2) Cities at Night

Value at Risk models with long memory features and their economic performance

We study alternative dynamics for Value at Risk (VaR) that incorporate a slow moving component and information on recent aggregate returns in established quantile (auto) regression models. These models are compared on their economic performance, and also on metrics of first-order importance such as violation ratios. By better economic performance, we mean that changes in the VaR forecasts should have a lower variance to reduce transaction costs and should lead to lower exceedance sizes without raising the average level of the VaR. We find that, in combination with a targeted estimation strategy, our proposed models lead to improved performance in both statistical and economic terms

Intercomparison of spectroradiometers and Sun photometers for the determination of the aerosol optical depth during the VELETA-2002 field campaign

[ 1] In July 2002 the VELETA-2002 field campaign was held in Sierra Nevada ( Granada) in the south of Spain. The main objectives of this field campaign were the study of the influence of elevation and atmospheric aerosols on measured UV radiation. In the first stage of the field campaign, a common calibration and intercomparison between Licor-1800 spectroradiometers and Cimel-318 Sun photometers was performed in order to assess the quality of the measurements from the whole campaign. The intercomparison of the Licor spectroradiometers showed, for both direct and global irradiances, that when the comparisons were restricted to the visible part of the spectrum the deviations were within the instruments' nominal accuracies which allows us to rely on these instruments for measuring physical properties of aerosols at the different measurement stations. A simultaneous calibration on AOD data was performed for the Cimel-318 Sun photometers. When a common calibration and methodology was applied, the deviation was lowered to much less than 0.01 for AOD. At the same time an intercomparison has been made between the AOD values given by the spectroradiometers and the Sun photometers, with deviations obtained from 0.01 to 0.03 for the AOD in the visible range, depending on the channel. In the UVA range, the AOD uncertainty was estimated to be around 0.02 and 0.05 for Cimel and Licor respectively. In general the experimental differences were in agreement with this uncertainty estimation. In the UVB range the AOD measurements should not be used due to maximum instrumental uncertainties

Mating skew in Barbary macaque males: the role of female mating synchrony, female behavior, and male–male coalitions

A fundamental question of sexual selection theory concerns the causes and consequences of reproductive skew among males. The priority of access (PoA) model (Altmann, Ann NY Acad Sci 102:338–435, 1962) has been the most influential framework in primates living in permanent, mixed-sex groups, but to date it has only been tested with the appropriate data on female synchrony in a handful of species. In this paper, we used mating data from one large semi-free ranging group of Barbary macaques: (1) to provide the first test of the priority-of-access model in this species, using mating data from 11 sexually active females (including six females that were implanted with a hormonal contraceptive but who showed levels of sexual activity comparable to those of naturally cycling females) and (2) to determine the proximate mechanism(s) underlying male mating skew. Our results show that the fit of the observed distribution of matings with sexually attractive females to predictions of the PoA model was poor, with lower-ranking males mating more than expected. While our work confirms that female mating synchrony sets an upper limit to monopolization by high-ranking individuals, other factors are also important. Coalitionary activity was the main tactic used by males to lower mating skew in the study group. Coalitions were expressed in a strongly age-related fashion and allowed subordinate, post-prime males to increase their mating success by targeting more dominant, prime males. Conversely, females, while mating promiscuously with several males during a given mating cycle, were more likely to initiate their consortships with prime males, thus reducing the overall effectiveness of coalitions. We conclude that high-ranking Barbary macaque males have a limited ability to monopolize mating access, leading to a modest mating skew among them

Nonlinear pharmacokinetics of therapeutic proteins resulting from receptor mediated endocytosis

Receptor mediated endocytosis (RME) plays a major role in the disposition of therapeutic protein drugs in the body. It is suspected to be a major source of nonlinear pharmacokinetic behavior observed in clinical pharmacokinetic data. So far, mostly empirical or semi-mechanistic approaches have been used to represent RME. A thorough understanding of the impact of the properties of the drug and of the receptor system on the resulting nonlinear disposition is still missing, as is how to best represent RME in pharmacokinetic models. In this article, we present a detailed mechanistic model of RME that explicitly takes into account receptor binding and trafficking inside the cell and that is used to derive reduced models of RME which retain a mechanistic interpretation. We find that RME can be described by an extended Michaelis–Menten model that accounts for both the distribution and the elimination aspect of RME. If the amount of drug in the receptor system is negligible a standard Michaelis–Menten model is capable of describing the elimination by RME. Notably, a receptor system can efficiently eliminate drug from the extracellular space even if the total number of receptors is small. We find that drug elimination by RME can result in substantial nonlinear pharmacokinetics. The extent of nonlinearity is higher for drug/receptor systems with higher receptor availability at the membrane, or faster internalization and degradation of extracellular drug. Our approach is exemplified for the epidermal growth factor receptor system

Long-term Site Fidelity and Individual Home Range Shifts in Lophocebus albigena

We investigated long-term site fidelity of gray-cheeked mangabey (Lophocebus albigena) groups in Kibale National Park, Uganda. Concurrently, we monitored shifts in home range by individual females and subadult and adult males. We documented home range stability by calculating the area of overlap in successive years, and by recording the drift of each group’s monthly centroid from its initial location. Home ranges remained stable for 3 of our 4 groups (overlap over 10 yr >60%). Core areas were more labile, but group centroids drifted an average of only 530 m over the entire decade. Deviations from site fidelity were associated with dispersal or group fission. During natal dispersal, subadult males expanded their home ranges over many months, settling ≤4 home ranges away. Adult males, in contrast, typically dispersed within a few days to an adjacent group in an area of home range overlap. Adult males made solitary forays, but nearly always into areas used by their current group or by a group to which they had previously belonged. After secondary dispersal, they expanded their ranging in the company of their new group, apparently without prior solitary exploration of the new area. Some females also participated in home range shifts. Females shifted home ranges only within social groups, in association with temporary or permanent group splits. Our observations raise the possibility that male mangabeys use a finder-joiner mechanism when moving into new home ranges during secondary dispersal. Similarly, females might learn new resource locations from male immigrants before or during group fission

Estrogen and Progestogen Correlates of the Structure of Female Copulation Calls in Semi-Free-Ranging Barbary Macaques (Macaca sylvanus)

Females of many Old World primates produce conspicuous vocalizations in combination with copulations. Indirect evidence exists that in Barbary macaques (Macaca sylvanus), the structure of these copulation calls is related to changes in reproductive hormone levels. However, the structure of these calls does not vary significantly around the timing of ovulation when estrogen and progestogen levels show marked changes. We here aimed to clarify this paradox by investigating how the steroid hormones estrogen and progesterone are related to changes in the acoustic structure of copulation calls. We collected data on semi-free-ranging Barbary macaques in Gibraltar and at La Forêt des Singes in Rocamadour, France. We determined estrogen and progestogen concentrations from fecal samples and combined them with a fine-grained structural analysis of female copulation calls (N = 775 calls of 11 females). Our analysis indicates a time lag of 3 d between changes in fecal hormone levels, adjusted for the excretion lag time, and in the acoustic structure of copulation calls. Specifically, we found that estrogen increased the duration and frequency of the calls, whereas progestogen had an antagonistic effect. Importantly, however, variation in acoustic variables did not track short-term changes such as the peak in estrogen occurring around the timing of ovulation. Taken together, our results help to explain why female Barbary macaque copulation calls are related to changes in hormone levels but fail to indicate the fertile phase