Un siècle de variabilité hydro-climatique sur le bassin de la Durance : Recherches historiques et reconstitutions

Understanding and predicting hydrological variability is becoming a major issue to improve water resources management at the watershed scale, as climate variability and multipurpose use of water increase stress on the available resources. In France, the Durance watershed (South part of the Alps) is both characterised by numerous water-related activities such as hydropower, irrigation, water supply, tourism, and by a wide range of meteorological contexts ranging from mountainous to dry Mediterranean watersheds. As a consequence, this watershed appears as very sensitive to observed and projected climate variability, with an impact on water resources sufficient to question the current balance between users. In order to better forecast the Durance watershed hydrological variability, tracing back its past evolution is an essential step. Indeed, historical knowledge provides a better understanding of how the watershed works, and put into perspective hydro meteorological projections for the next century. The main goal of this Ph.D. thesis is then to improve our knowledge of the hydrological variability of the Durance watershed over the last century. Two main themes have been developed.The first step focused on historical research, bringing to light 11 centennial time-series of daily streamflow on the Durance watershed. Those data were quite well documented, allowing us to follow the evolution of the methods used to construct some of those time-series. Based on recent streamflow time-series, a simulation process allowed us to quantify the uncertainty associated to the methods used in the past, and to highlight the significant biases they carried on some periods of time. A correction process was then developed, leading to the partial revision of some of the time-series. A second step involved reconstructing hydrological time-series at different points of the watershed. An original method, called ANATEM, has been introduced and exhaustively applied to rebuild climatological time-series at the watershed scale. This method is based on the use of large scale climatological variables (atmospheric pressure fields) combined with regional scale observations (observed precipitation or air temperature). Those reconstructed climatological time-series were then prescribed in a rainfall-runoff model, allowing the computation of hydrological simulations on the 1884-2010 period. The comparison of the simulated data with our 11 centennial observed time series allowed us to validate our hydro-climatological reconstruction chain over more than a century. Finally, the observed and simulated time-series illustrate the climatological and hydrological variability of the Durance watershed. This variability is characterised by the succession of alternatively dry and humid periods lasting for ten to fifteen years, and by a slight trend to streamflow decrease. These long-term hydrological time-series will then put into perspective future investigations on water resources available over the next century.Dans un contexte de variabilité climatique et de multiplication des usages de l'eau, la compréhension et la prévision de la variabilité des débits des cours d'eau est aujourd'hui un enjeu majeur pour améliorer la gestion des ressources en eau à l'échelle des bassins versants. En France, le bassin versant de la Durance (Alpes du Sud), lieu de multiples usages de l'eau (hydroélectricité, agriculture, alimentation en eau potable, loisirs), fait l'objet d'une attention particulière en ce qui concerne les impacts du changement climatique qui pourraient être importants du fait de sa situation géographique et de son régime partiellement nival, et remettre en question les équilibres en place permettant le partage de la ressource. Dans l'optique d'une meilleure anticipation de la variabilité hydrologique d'un bassin versant, bien connaître le passé est une étape fondamentale permettant à la fois une meilleure connaissance du fonctionnement hydrologique du bassin et une mise en perspective des projections hydro-climatiques futures. Cette thèse a pour objectif et résultat principal de faire progresser l'état des connaissances sur la variabilité hydrologique du bassin de la Durance à l'échelle du dernier siècle. Deux axes principaux ont été développés pour remplir cet objectif. Une première étape a été la recherche et la mise au jour d'un ensemble de longues séries hydrométriques concernant la Durance et ses affluents, permettant d'élever à 11 le nombre de séries centenaires de débits journaliers aujourd'hui disponibles sur ce bassin. Les nombreux documents accompagnant les données retrouvées nous ont par ailleurs permis de retracer, pour une partie de ces séries, l'évolution des méthodes utilisées pour les construire. Un processus de simulation des méthodes anciennes à partir de données horaires disponibles sur la période récente nous a permis de quantifier l'incertitude associée à ces méthodes et de mettre en évidence des biais importants causés par celles-ci sur certaines portions de séries. Une méthode de correction a été proposée et appliquée à plusieurs séries. Le deuxième axe de notre travail a consisté en la reconstitution de séries hydrologiques en différents points du bassin. À cette fin, nous avons présenté et appliqué une méthode originale appelée ANATEM de reconstitution de séries climatiques à l'échelle du bassin versant à partir de données climatiques de grande échelle (champs de pressions atmosphériques), combinées à des informations plus régionales (séries de précipitations ou de températures observées). Les séries climatiques ainsi reconstituées ont ensuite été utilisées en entrée d'un modèle hydrologique pour construire des séries de débits. Ce processus nous a permis d'obtenir une vingtaine de séries hydrologiques couvrant la période 1884-2010 sur le bassin de la Durance. La comparaison des reconstitutions hydro-climatiques avec les longues séries de débits observés aujourd'hui disponibles a permis de valider la chaîne de reconstitution sur une période de plus d'un siècle. Les séries observées et reconstituées illustrent finalement la variabilité hydrologique du bassin de la Durance qui se caractérise par une alternance de périodes sèches et humides à l'échelle de la décennie, ainsi que par une légère tendance à la baisse des débits. Ces longues séries de l'hydrologie du passé permettront de mettre en perspective les études prospectives sur les ressources en eau disponibles à l'échelle du siècle prochain

One century of hydro-climatic variability on the Durance Watershed : Historical research and reconstructions

Dans un contexte de variabilité climatique et de multiplication des usages de l'eau, la compréhension et la prévision de la variabilité des débits des cours d'eau est aujourd'hui un enjeu majeur pour améliorer la gestion des ressources en eau à l'échelle des bassins versants. En France, le bassin versant de la Durance (Alpes du Sud), lieu de multiples usages de l'eau (hydroélectricité, agriculture, alimentation en eau potable, loisirs), fait l'objet d'une attention particulière en ce qui concerne les impacts du changement climatique qui pourraient être importants du fait de sa situation géographique et de son régime partiellement nival, et remettre en question les équilibres en place permettant le partage de la ressource. Dans l'optique d'une meilleure anticipation de la variabilité hydrologique d'un bassin versant, bien connaître le passé est une étape fondamentale permettant à la fois une meilleure connaissance du fonctionnement hydrologique du bassin et une mise en perspective des projections hydro-climatiques futures. Cette thèse a pour objectif et résultat principal de faire progresser l'état des connaissances sur la variabilité hydrologique du bassin de la Durance à l'échelle du dernier siècle. Deux axes principaux ont été développés pour remplir cet objectif. Une première étape a été la recherche et la mise au jour d'un ensemble de longues séries hydrométriques concernant la Durance et ses affluents, permettant d'élever à 11 le nombre de séries centenaires de débits journaliers aujourd'hui disponibles sur ce bassin. Les nombreux documents accompagnant les données retrouvées nous ont par ailleurs permis de retracer, pour une partie de ces séries, l'évolution des méthodes utilisées pour les construire. Un processus de simulation des méthodes anciennes à partir de données horaires disponibles sur la période récente nous a permis de quantifier l'incertitude associée à ces méthodes et de mettre en évidence des biais importants causés par celles-ci sur certaines portions de séries. Une méthode de correction a été proposée et appliquée à plusieurs séries. Le deuxième axe de notre travail a consisté en la reconstitution de séries hydrologiques en différents points du bassin. À cette fin, nous avons présenté et appliqué une méthode originale appelée ANATEM de reconstitution de séries climatiques à l'échelle du bassin versant à partir de données climatiques de grande échelle (champs de pressions atmosphériques), combinées à des informations plus régionales (séries de précipitations ou de températures observées). Les séries climatiques ainsi reconstituées ont ensuite été utilisées en entrée d'un modèle hydrologique pour construire des séries de débits. Ce processus nous a permis d'obtenir une vingtaine de séries hydrologiques couvrant la période 1884-2010 sur le bassin de la Durance. La comparaison des reconstitutions hydro-climatiques avec les longues séries de débits observés aujourd'hui disponibles a permis de valider la chaîne de reconstitution sur une période de plus d'un siècle. Les séries observées et reconstituées illustrent finalement la variabilité hydrologique du bassin de la Durance qui se caractérise par une alternance de périodes sèches et humides à l'échelle de la décennie, ainsi que par une légère tendance à la baisse des débits. Ces longues séries de l'hydrologie du passé permettront de mettre en perspective les études prospectives sur les ressources en eau disponibles à l'échelle du siècle prochain.Understanding and predicting hydrological variability is becoming a major issue to improve water resources management at the watershed scale, as climate variability and multipurpose use of water increase stress on the available resources. In France, the Durance watershed (South part of the Alps) is both characterised by numerous water-related activities such as hydropower, irrigation, water supply, tourism, and by a wide range of meteorological contexts ranging from mountainous to dry Mediterranean watersheds. As a consequence, this watershed appears as very sensitive to observed and projected climate variability, with an impact on water resources sufficient to question the current balance between users. In order to better forecast the Durance watershed hydrological variability, tracing back its past evolution is an essential step. Indeed, historical knowledge provides a better understanding of how the watershed works, and put into perspective hydro meteorological projections for the next century. The main goal of this Ph.D. thesis is then to improve our knowledge of the hydrological variability of the Durance watershed over the last century. Two main themes have been developed.The first step focused on historical research, bringing to light 11 centennial time-series of daily streamflow on the Durance watershed. Those data were quite well documented, allowing us to follow the evolution of the methods used to construct some of those time-series. Based on recent streamflow time-series, a simulation process allowed us to quantify the uncertainty associated to the methods used in the past, and to highlight the significant biases they carried on some periods of time. A correction process was then developed, leading to the partial revision of some of the time-series. A second step involved reconstructing hydrological time-series at different points of the watershed. An original method, called ANATEM, has been introduced and exhaustively applied to rebuild climatological time-series at the watershed scale. This method is based on the use of large scale climatological variables (atmospheric pressure fields) combined with regional scale observations (observed precipitation or air temperature). Those reconstructed climatological time-series were then prescribed in a rainfall-runoff model, allowing the computation of hydrological simulations on the 1884-2010 period. The comparison of the simulated data with our 11 centennial observed time series allowed us to validate our hydro-climatological reconstruction chain over more than a century. Finally, the observed and simulated time-series illustrate the climatological and hydrological variability of the Durance watershed. This variability is characterised by the succession of alternatively dry and humid periods lasting for ten to fifteen years, and by a slight trend to streamflow decrease. These long-term hydrological time-series will then put into perspective future investigations on water resources available over the next century

Building long-term and high spatio-temporal resolution precipitation and air temperature reanalyses by mixing local observations and global atmospheric reanalyses : the ANATEM model

Efforts to improve the understanding of past climatic or hydrologic variability have received a great deal of attention in various fields of geosciences such as glaciology, dendrochronology, sedimentology and hydrology. Based on different proxies, each research community produces different kinds of climatic or hydrologic reanalyses at different spatio-temporal scales and resolutions. When considering climate or hydrology, many studies have been devoted to characterising variability, trends or breaks using observed time series representing different regions or climates of the world. However, in hydrology, these studies have usually been limited to short temporal scales (mainly a few decades and more rarely a century) because they require observed time series (which suffer from a limited spatio-temporal density). This paper introduces ANATEM, a method that combines local observations and large-scale climatic information (such as the 20CR Reanalysis) to build long-term probabilistic air temperature and precipitation time series with a high spatio-temporal resolution (1 day and a few km(2)). ANATEM was tested on the reconstruction of air temperature and precipitation time series of 22 watersheds situated in the Durance River basin, in the French Alps. Based on a multi-criteria and multi-scale diagnosis, the results show that ANATEM improves the performance of classical statistical models - especially concerning spatial homogeneity - while providing an original representation of uncertainties which are conditioned by atmospheric circulation patterns. The ANATEM model has been also evaluated for the regional scale against independent long-term time series and was able to capture regional low-frequency variability over more than a century (1883-2010)

Streamflow variability over the 1881-2011 period in northern Quebec : comparison of hydrological reconstructions based on tree rings and geopotential height field reanalysis

International audienceOver the last decades, different methods have been used by hydrologists to extend observed hydro-climatic time series, based on other data sources, such as tree rings or sedimentological datasets. For example, tree ring multi-proxies have been studied for the Caniapiscau Reservoir in northern Québec (Canada), leading to the reconstruction of flow time series for the last 150 years. In this paper, we applied a new hydro-climatic reconstruction method on the Caniapiscau Reservoir and compare the obtained streamflow time series against time series derived from dendrohydrology by other authors on the same catchment and study the natural streamflow variability over the 1881–2011 period in that region. This new reconstruction is based not on natural proxies but on a historical reanalysis of global geopotential height fields, and aims firstly to produce daily climatic time series, which are then used as inputs to a rainfall–runoff model in order to obtain daily streamflow time series. The performances of the hydro-climatic reconstruction were quantified over the observed period, and showed good performances, in terms of both monthly regimes and interannual variability. The streamflow reconstructions were then compared to two different reconstructions performed on the same catchment by using tree ring data series, one being focused on mean annual flows and the other on spring floods. In terms of mean annual flows, the interannual variability in the reconstructed flows was similar (except for the 1930–1940 decade), with noteworthy changes seen in wetter and drier years. For spring floods, the reconstructed interannual variabilities were quite similar for the 1955–2011 period, but strongly different between 1880 and 1940. The results emphasize the need to apply different reconstruction methods on the same catchments. Indeed, comparisons such as those above highlight potential differences between available reconstructions and, finally, allow a retrospective analysis of the proposed reconstructions of past hydro-climatological variabilities

Hydrométrie et hydrologie historique du bassin de la Durance

Historical hydrometry and hydrology of the Durance river watershed. This paper presents different studies on the Durance river watershed, situated in the south part of the Alps. Our studies explore a large collection of historical archives in hydrology and hydrometry, found by a historian. This watershed is characterised by an incredible density of hydrological stations, with more than 150 stations and 4500 years of hydrological records, since the beginning of the 20th century. As an example, the archives of 10 stations starting between 1900 and 1917 were very detailed, with all the gaugings, rating curves, and streamflows records. Archives also reveal the great scientific and technical involvement at that period to understand, develop streamflow measurements and estimate available water resources. Then, we present an estimation of streamflow uncertainty of historical series due to the height measurement strategy. Results show that long streamflow series are not homogeneous in time and that old streamflows series could be significantly biased during snowmelt. Finally, this paper shows the great interest of historical time-series to better characterise hydrometeorological variability.Cette communication présente différents travaux que nous avons menés sur le bassin de la Durance. Ces travaux explorent l’incroyable patrimoine de données historiques en hydrologie et en hydrométrie de la Durance, où il a existé plus de 150 stations hydrométriques, avec un total de 4500 années de débits. Des séries de débits commençant au début du 20ème siècle ont pu être retrouvées, ainsi que de très nombreuses informations sur les stations hydrométriques, les techniques de jaugeages, les courbes de tarage, etc. Ce patrimoine historique met en évidence le très fort investissement des personnels pour développer les techniques de mesure et faire progresser la connaissance des ressources en eau des bassins. Ensuite, nous présentons des travaux que nous avons menés pour caractériser une partie de l’incertitude des données anciennes, liée au mode d’échantillonnage des hauteurs. Ces travaux montrent que les longues séries ne sont généralement pas homogènes d’un point de vue de la mesure et que les séries anciennes peuvent être significativement biaisées pendant la période de fonte. Enfin, nous présentons des travaux sur la caractérisation de la variabilité hydrologique du bassin de la Durance au cours des 100 dernières années. Ces travaux confirment l’intérêt de ces séries séculaires pour mieux connaître le fonctionnement des bassins versants.Kuentz Anna, Mathevet Thibault, Coeur Denis, Perret Christian, Gailhard Joel, Guérin Laura, Gash Yasin, Andréassian Vazken. Hydrométrie et hydrologie historique du bassin de la Durance. In: 35es journées de l’hydraulique de la Société Hydrotechnique de France. Hydrométrie 2013. Paris, 15-16 mai 2013. 2013

Flood variability over1871-2012 in Northern Québec: comparison of hydrological reconstructionsbased on tree-rings and on geopotential height field reanalysis

International audienc

ANATEM Hydro sur les Alpes du Nord et du Sud : applications sur les bassins versants de l’Isère et de la Durance

International audienc

Flood variability over 1871-2012 in Northern Québec: comparison of hydrological reconstructions based on tree-rings and on geopotential height field reanalysis

International audienc

NR2F1 regulates regional progenitor dynamics in the mouse neocortex and cortical gyrification in BBSOAS patients

International audienceThe relationships between impaired cortical development and consequent malformations in neurodevelopmental disorders, as well as the genes implicated in these processes, are not fully elucidated to date. In this study, we report six novel cases of patients affected by BBSOAS (Boonstra-Bosch-Schaff optic atrophy syndrome), a newly emerging rare neurodevelopmental disorder, caused by loss-of-function mutations of the transcriptional regulator NR2F1. Young patients with NR2F1 haploinsufficiency display mild to moderate intellectual disability and show reproducible polymicrogyria-like brain malformations in the parietal and occipital cortex. Using a recently established BBSOAS mouse model, we found that Nr2f1 regionally controls long-term self-renewal of neural progenitor cells via modulation of cell cycle genes and key cortical development master genes, such as Pax6. In the human fetal cortex, distinct NR2F1 expression levels encompass gyri and sulci and correlate with local degrees of neurogenic activity. In addition, reduced NR2F1 levels in cerebral organoids affect neurogenesis and PAX6 expression. We propose NR2F1 as an area-specific regulator of mouse and human brain morphology and a novel causative gene of abnormal gyrification

HCN1 mutation spectrum: from neonatal epileptic encephalopathy to benign generalized epilepsy and beyond.

Hyperpolarization-activated cyclic nucleotide-gated (HCN) channels control neuronal excitability and their dysfunction has been linked to epileptogenesis but few individuals with neurological disorders related to variants altering HCN channels have been reported so far. In 2014, we described five individuals with epileptic encephalopathy due to de novo HCN1 variants. To delineate HCN1-related disorders and investigate genotype-phenotype correlations further, we assembled a cohort of 33 unpublished patients with novel pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants: 19 probands carrying 14 different de novo mutations and four families with dominantly inherited variants segregating with epilepsy in 14 individuals, but not penetrant in six additional individuals. Sporadic patients had epilepsy with median onset at age 7 months and in 36% the first seizure occurred during a febrile illness. Overall, considering familial and sporadic patients, the predominant phenotypes were mild, including genetic generalized epilepsies and genetic epilepsy with febrile seizures plus (GEFS+) spectrum. About 20% manifested neonatal/infantile onset otherwise unclassified epileptic encephalopathy. The study also included eight patients with variants of unknown significance: one adopted patient had two HCN1 variants, four probands had intellectual disability without seizures, and three individuals had missense variants inherited from an asymptomatic parent. Of the 18 novel pathogenic missense variants identified, 12 were associated with severe phenotypes and clustered within or close to transmembrane domains, while variants segregating with milder phenotypes were located outside transmembrane domains, in the intracellular N- and C-terminal parts of the channel. Five recurrent variants were associated with similar phenotypes. Using whole-cell patch-clamp, we showed that the impact of 12 selected variants ranged from complete loss-of-function to significant shifts in activation kinetics and/or voltage dependence. Functional analysis of three different substitutions altering Gly391 revealed that these variants had different consequences on channel biophysical properties. The Gly391Asp variant, associated with the most severe, neonatal phenotype, also had the most severe impact on channel function. Molecular dynamics simulation on channel structure showed that homotetramers were not conducting ions because the permeation path was blocked by cation(s) strongly complexed to the Asp residue, whereas heterotetramers showed an instantaneous current component possibly linked to deformation of the channel pore. In conclusion, our results considerably expand the clinical spectrum related to HCN1 variants to include common generalized epilepsy phenotypes and further illustrate how HCN1 has a pivotal function in brain development and control of neuronal excitability