Estimating regional unemployment with mobile network data for Functional Urban Areas in Germany

The ongoing growth of cities due to better job opportunities is leading to increased labour-relatedcommuter flows in several countries. On the one hand, an increasing number of people commuteand move to the cities, but on the other hand, the labour market indicates higher unemployment ratesin urban areas than in the surrounding areas. We investigate this phenomenon on regional level byan alternative definition of unemployment rates in which commuting behaviour is integrated. Wecombine data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) with dynamic mobile network data by small areamodels for the federal state North Rhine-Westphalia in Germany. From a methodical perspective, weuse a transformed Fay-Herriot model with bias correction for the estimation of unemployment ratesand propose a parametric bootstrap for the Mean Squared Error (MSE) estimation that includes thebias correction. The performance of the proposed methodology is evaluated in a case study based onofficial data and in model-based simulations. The results in the application show that unemploymentrates (adjusted by commuters) in German cities are lower than traditional official unemployment ratesindicate

After the Flood. Mobility as an Adaptation Strategy in High Mountain Oases. The Case of Pasu in Gojal, Hunza Valley, Karakoram

The high mountain environment of the Hunza Valley in the Karakoram is characterised by significant potential energy, extended glaciation and related events that tend to threaten habitations and settlements. The village oasis of Pasu is taken as a case in point to highlight adaptation and coping strategies over a longer period. The village lands of Pasu have been shrinking over time owing to glacier outburst floods in the upper valleys. The inhabitants of Pasu have developed a set of coping strategies that are linked to mobility. Shifting populations to newly created irrigated oases in previously barren lands, out-migration to urban areas within the Karakoram and to metropolises in downcountry Pakistan in search of employment and education, international migration to overseas destinations, and the broadening of income generation by reducing the importance of agriculture in favour of services and tourism are measures of adaptation that are embedded into the sociopolitical and economic framework conditions. The shrinking village lands of Pasu have posed tremendous challenges to the mountain farmers, who have developed their own responses

The Central Asian oases - from trading towns to centres of modernisation

International audienceLes oasis d'Asie central ont connu de vrais changements lies à des paramètres historiques et aux transformations récentes dans les sociétés associées. L'Asie centrale chinoise a, elle, connu des changements très rapides. L'oasis de Kashgar est utilisée ici comme exemple pour démontrer les processus de modernisation vers des standards chinois, qui ont mené à l'établissement d'une Zone économique Spéciale

Electron donors and acceptors for members of the family Beggiatoaceae

The family Beggiatoaceae comprises large, colorless sulfur bacteria, which are best known for their chemolithotrophic metabolism, the oxidation of reduced sulfur compounds with oxygen or nitrate. This thesis contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of the ecophysiology of these organisms with several studies on different aspects of their dissimilatory metabolism. Section 2 proposes a general model of sulfur compound oxidation in this family and Section 3 presents a possible rationale for sulfur respiration under strongly sulfidic conditions. Section 4 describes physiological and genomic studies, showing that members of the family Beggiatoaceae can use molecular hydrogen as an electron donor. The possible influence of hydrogen oxidation on the metabolic plasticity of the Beggiatoaceae is discussed and environmental settings are pointed out, in which hydrogen oxidation could be important for these organisms. Section 5 compares the energetics of hydrogen and sulfur oxidation

Contested commons – multiple insecurities of pastoralists in North-Eastern Afghanistan

Pastoralists in North-Eastern Afghanistan are exposed to a multitude of contemporary challenges and threats while practising mobile animal husbandry in differing locations and within the spheres of varying power constellations. In this article a historical perspective is adopted to explore the challenges and multiple insecurities of Pashtun and Uzbek pastoral communities who seasonally engage in long-distance migration from the lowlands in Northern Afghanistan to the high pastures of Badakhshan. The same pasture area is regularly utilised by Shughni mountain farmers who practise combined mountain agriculture in the high mountain settlements close to Lake Shewa. Debates about nomadism's place in transforming societies, the drama of the commons, human security, and vulnerability issues frame the discussion of pastoralism in contested commons. Based on empirical evidence derived from open interviews with migrating pastoralists and sedentary groups on the Shewa plateau in Badakhshan, interpretations of pastoralism are presented, embedded in the context of contemporary Afghanistan. Pastoralism as a valuable survival and adaptive strategy is challenged by multiple environmental, social and political insecurities, by militancy and weak state authorities, and it unfolds in contested commons and along dangerous routes. The nexus of legal pluralism, tenure insecurity and changing control of space is identified as an important determining factor for the shape of mobile pastoralism in present-day Afghanistan

Universal service obligations and the liberalization of network industries: taming the Chimera?

This paper considers the protection of universal service in the network industries, with a focus on the postal service and telecommunications sectors. We define the concept of universal service and explain how it was seen as a necessary quid pro quo for securing the liberalization agenda in the EU. We go on to explain and analyse the two competing means of protecting and compensating universal service, either under the State aid regime or the relevant sectoral legislation. In order to gain a better understanding of how these competing mechanisms operate in practice, we look in detail at two areas where liberalization and universal service are in particular tension: (i) high-speed broadband and (ii) letter collection and delivery. We conclude by discussing some of the problems of using State aid rules as a substitute for a sectoral framework and contemplate the future of universal service

Projected earnings accuracy and the profitability of stock recommendations

Analysts providing more accurate earnings forecasts also issue more profitable recommendations. We demonstrate how investors can profit from this contemporaneous link by differentiating between able and lucky analysts. In line with previous studies, we find that past track records alone are not sufficient to identify profitable recommendations. Only skilled analysts working in a superior environment provide consistently profitable recommendations. The overall profitability of their recommendations is not driven by a post-announcement drift effect. We find that an implementable, i.e. look-ahead bias free, trading strategy based on the projected - rather than past - earnings accuracy yields substantial excess returns