171 research outputs found
Deep Learning and Linear Programming for Automated Ensemble Forecasting and Interpretation
This paper presents an ensemble forecasting method that shows strong results
on the M4 Competition dataset by decreasing feature and model selection
assumptions, termed DONUT (DO Not UTilize human beliefs). Our assumption
reductions, primarily consisting of auto-generated features and a more diverse
model pool for the ensemble, significantly outperform the statistical,
feature-based ensemble method FFORMA by Montero-Manso et al. (2020). We also
investigate feature extraction with a Long Short-term Memory Network (LSTM)
Autoencoder and find that such features contain crucial information not
captured by standard statistical feature approaches. The ensemble weighting
model uses LSTM and statistical features to combine the models accurately. The
analysis of feature importance and interaction shows a slight superiority for
LSTM features over the statistical ones alone. Clustering analysis shows that
essential LSTM features differ from most statistical features and each other.
We also find that increasing the solution space of the weighting model by
augmenting the ensemble with new models is something the weighting model learns
to use, thus explaining part of the accuracy gains. Moreover, we present a
formal ex-post-facto analysis of an optimal combination and selection for
ensembles, quantifying differences through linear optimization on the M4
dataset. Our findings indicate that classical statistical time series features,
such as trend and seasonality, alone do not capture all relevant information
for forecasting a time series. On the contrary, our novel LSTM features contain
significantly more predictive power than the statistical ones alone, but
combining the two feature sets proved the best in practice
Bridging contexts and interpretations: Mobile blogging on art museum field trips
In this study of art museum field trips by high school students, we investigate the ways in which features of different social and mobile technologies, specifically blogs and mobile phones, are able to bridge and support meaning making in young peopleâs encounters with contemporary art. Empirical material is presented from Gidder, a web-based learning environment with a mobile blogging feature. Through close examination of studentsâ use of contextual resources and the writing and editing of blog entries, this study contributes a deeper understanding of the ways in which digital technologies may be designed for pedagogical use on museum field trips
âDonât confuse me with factsââhow right wing populism affects trust in agencies advocating anthropogenic climate change as a reality
Everyday public denial of anthropogenically caused climate change (ACC) has complex antecedents and exists on both individual and institutional levels. Earlier research has linked ACC denial to opposition to formal science and elites, perceived threats to the industrialist capitalist order and existing system properties. Research also suggest that trust in public organizations is a key factor in determining support or opposition to climate change policies. In this paper, we explore the possibility that right wing populism and anti-elitist attitudes fuel both ACC denial and low trust in environmental institutions. We surveyed a representative sample of Norwegians (N = 3032) to measure ACC denial, how denial is linked to socio-demographic characteristics, trust in environmental institutions, attitudes toward elites and immigration, as well as environmental attitude orientations. Results show that lack of trust in environmental institutions is strongly associated with ACC denial, and furthermore that the degree of trustâor lack thereofâis partly a function of anti-elitist attitudes, opposition to migration and views of nature
Environmental justice in a very green city: Spatial inequality in exposure to urban nature, air pollution and heat in Oslo, Norway
Poorer citizens are often more exposed to environmental hazards due to spatial inequalities in the distribution of urban blue-green space. Few cities have managed to prevent spatial and social inequality despite sustainable development strategies like compact city planning. We explore whether environmental injustice exists in a city where one would least expect to find it: a city with abundant nature, an affluent population governed by a left leaning social democratic city council, and an aggressive densification strategy; Oslo, Norway. Green space was measured with a satellite-derived vegetation index which captures the combined availability of gardens, street trees, parks and forest. Blue space was defined by the proximity of residential areas to the closest lake, river or fjord. We found that poorer city districts, often with greater immigrant populations, have less available blue-green spaces and are disproportionately exposed to hazardous air pollution levels, but not extreme heat compared to wealthier city districts. Citizens living within 100 m of a water body are likely to earn US 3000 increase in annual income corresponds to a 10 % increase in green space availability. Hazardous air pollution concentrations in the poorest city districts were above levels recommended by the WHO and Oslo municipality. Historical trends showed that districts undergoing population densification coincide with the lowest availability of blue-green space, suggesting that environmental justice has been overlooked in compact city planning policy. Despite Oslo's affluence and egalitarian ideals, the patterns of inequality we observed mirror the city's historical east-west class divide and point to spatial concentration of wealth as a core factor to consider in studies of green segregation. Urban greening initiatives in Oslo and other cities should not take spatial equality for granted, and instead consider socio-economic geographies in their planning process. Green space Blue space Densification Urban nature Urban sustainability ExposurepublishedVersio
Warranty for a better world? The politics of environmental knowledge in bioeconomic sustainability certificates
Sustainability certificates are increasingly used as tools for shaping bioeconomic production processes and trade. However, their specific effects are subjected to debate. A multitude of certificate schemes and standards are currently in use, defining and measuring sustainability in the bioeconomy in highly varying ways. Different representations of environmental effects, resulting from the use of different standards or scientific methods in certification, can have very real implications for how, where and to which degree bioeconomic production can be conducted and the environment will be conserved. Further, the implications for bioeconomic production practices and management embedded in the environmental knowledge employed in bioeconomic sustainability certificates will produce different winners and losers, and privilege some societal or individual concerns at the expense of others. In this way, sustainability certificates share some characteristics with other standards and policy tools that embody political contingencies, but are presented and often understood as objective and neutral. The paper argues that the politics of environmental knowledge involved in these processes warrant more awareness, scrutiny and explicit consideration from decision makers, policy developers and researchers. Bioeconomy Certificates Environmental knowledge Politics of knowledge SustainabilitypublishedVersio
Den skjulte styringen
Lately, we have seen several overt attempts from politicians and corporate interests to steer research in the directions they prefer. However, such attempts are always met with outrage and resistance, and they lead to extensive public debate. We contend that more subtle and hidden control over research is exercised on a day-today basis, yet it is rarely discussed. Research programs and new research centers are often designed based on premises that are no less political than clumsy attempts at controlling scientists. Programs are designed to stimulate economic growth, energy production, commodification, job creation, a more effective government, etc. These premises are rarely articulated and almost never discussed. Many Norwegian and EU research programs will automatically exclude research that questions them. This means that only research that is âusefulâ for particular interests is funded. The claim that this form of âusefulnessâ is universally good is in fact strongly political. This hidden political control impairs our possibilities to conduct research to facilitate alternative societal development trajectories and serve civic society. It should be discussed much more openly and critically than is the case today. research policy, power relations, politicspublishedVersio
Evaluering av norsk handlingsplan for dverggÄs
Kvalnes, T., Follestad, A., Krange, O. & Tombre, I.M. 2023. Evaluering av norsk handlingsplan for dverggÄs. NINA Rapport 2349. Norsk institutt for naturforskning.
DverggÄsa (Anser erythropus) er en kritisk truet art i Norge, den har gÄtt fra Ä vÊre en tallrik fugl pÄ 1940-tallet til Ä ha en hekkebestand som de siste tre generasjonene gjentatte ganger har vÊrt fÊrre enn 50 reproduserende individer. Den norske hekkebestanden utgjÞr nesten hele den gjenvÊrende fennoskandiske bestanden av arten. Dette har gjort at dverggÄsa har blitt utpekt som en prioritert art med egen forskrift. BirdLife Norge (tidligere Norsk Ornitologisk Forening) har siden 1985 gjennomfÞrt Ärlige prosjekter i Finnmark, for Ä kartlegge og overvÄke bestanden. Gjennom blant annet merking med halsringer, fotringer og GPS-loggere har de kartlagt trekkrutene fra Norge til overvintringsomrÄdene i Hellas. NINA har pÄ oppdrag fra MiljÞdirektoratet foretatt en samlet evaluering av aktivitetene i den norske handlingsplanen for dverggÄs som ble publisert i 2009.
MÄlene med evalueringen var 1) Ä evaluere mÄloppnÄelse i forhold til handlingsplanen, 2) Ä evaluere hvorvidt kunnskap fra overvÄkningen blir tilrettelagt og formidlet for videre bruk, 3) Ä evaluere organisering og finansiering av tiltak og 4) Ä gi innspill til videre kunnskapsinnhenting og tiltak i det framtidige arbeidet. Evalueringen er basert pÄ en gjennomgang av relevante publiserte resultater, slik som rapporter fra BirdLife Norge og vitenskapelige artikler, og annen informasjon som er laget i tilknytning til prosjektet. Dette for Ä fÄ en oversikt over nÄvÊrende kunnskap om bestanden. Vi har intervjuet informanter som representerer en rekke interessegrupper og brukere av informasjon fra arbeidet med dverggÄsa. I tillegg har vi, ved bruk av den sÄkalte rÞd til grÞnn metoden, vurdert behovet for kunnskapsinnhenting og tiltak pÄ veien videre.
MÄlene i handlingsplanen var 1) Ä stanse den pÄgÄende bestandsnedgangen innen 2015 og 2) Þke den fennoskandiske bestanden til 1000 individer pÄ lengre sikt. MÄl nummer to har ikke blitt oppnÄdd enda. Bestandsnedgangen er imidlertid stanset og bestanden har utvist en svak vekst, slik at det fÞrste mÄlet dermed er nÄdd. Dette vurderes i stor grad som en effekt av de samlede tiltakene som er igangsatt for Ä bevare arten. En revidering av handlingsplanen anbefales. Nye bestandsmÄl bÞr defineres som steg pÄ veien mot Ä sikre en levedyktig bestand. Dette kan operasjonaliseres ved Ä benytte rÞdlistekriteriene til Ä definere mÄl og informere valg av tiltak.
Tiltakene som er igangsatt har hatt som formĂ„l Ă„ redusere voksendĂždelighet og Ăžke ungeproduksjonen. Det har vĂŠrt innfĂžrt ferdselsforbud i viktige rasteomrĂ„der, som pĂ„ Valdakmyra i Porsanger kommune og RĂžrholmen i Alta kommune. Ă
rlig uttak av rÞdrev (Vulpes vulpes) har vÊrt gjennomfÞrt i og rundt hekkeomrÄdet. Det er innfÞrt jaktforbud pÄ grÄgÄs (Anser anser) i store deler av Finnmark for Ä unngÄ at dverggjess blir felt ved en feiltakelse. Utstrakt internasjonalt samarbeid med Finland, Russland og andre land har vÊrt viktig for Ä overvÄke, redusere ulovlig jakt og sikre viktige funksjonsomrÄder langs trekkrutene og i vinteromrÄdene.
Tiltakene har generelt god stÞtte blant informantene. De uttrykker at folk er opptatt av at en skal ta vare pÄ dverggÄsa. Personer i forvaltningen og museumsansatte benytter i stor grad kunnskapen som genereres av overvÄkingen og ulike forskningsprosjekter. Det er imidlertid en mangel pÄ kunnskap om arbeidet med dverggÄsa blant andre folk som bruker funksjonsomrÄdene og vi har observert et Þnske om at kunnskapen i stÞrre grad formidles. Det er informanter som forteller at flere interessenter ikke er enige i jaktforbudet, sÊrlig gjelder det de etablerte grensene for hvor jaktforbudet skal gjelde. Det er ogsÄ en misnÞye blant noen interessenter som uttrykker at jegerstanden undervurderes nÄr forvaltningen tar som utgangspunkt at de ikke kan skille dverggÄs fra grÄgÄs under jakten. Her anbefales det at forvaltningen gÄr i dialog med interessegrupper (bÞnder og jegere) for Ä se om det kan vÊre mulig Ä gjÞre tilpasninger som mÞter deres behov eller sikrer bedre informasjonsflyt og kommunikasjon samtidig som en forhindrer Þkt risiko for dverggÄsa. En diskusjon om justering av grensene for jaktforbudet bÞr vÊre en del av en slik dialog.
VÄr evaluering tilsier at mye av arbeidet som har vÊrt gjennomfÞrt gjennom mange Är har vÊrt viktig og bÞr fortsette i Ärene framover. Nye mÄl for arten og noen nye tiltak foreslÄs innfÞrt. Men dverggÄsa trekker over store avstander og mange land. Det er begrenset hva man kan oppnÄ med nasjonale tiltak i Norge. For Ä sikre stÞrst mulig sannsynlighet for Ä lykkes vil det vÊre ytterst viktig at det internasjonale arbeidet prioriteres i tiden framover. Evalueringen avdekker ogsÄ noen kunnskapsmangler som vil vÊre viktig Ä dekke slik at mer skreddersydde tiltak kan iverksettes og effekten av tiltak slik som rÞdrev uttak kan evalueres med mer detaljert kunnskap om predasjon. Internasjonalt er det spesielt viktig Ä sikre omrÄdene som benyttes under trekket og overvintringen mot ulovlig jakt, nedbygging og forstyrrelser. En fortsatt overvÄking pÄ overvintring, langs trekkruta og pÄ rasteplass i Norge er vesentlig for Ä kunne evaluere effekten av de ulike tiltakene. Basert pÄ informasjon fra intervjuene kan det ogsÄ vurderes om det skal etableres en form for ressursgruppe, der representanter for ulike involverte og berÞrte aktÞrer kan mÞtes. Et slikt fora vil Äpne for tettere dialog, erfaring- og kunnskapsutvikling og vil sannsynligvis ogsÄ bidra til en Þkt forstÄelse og aksept for ulike tiltak. Dermed kan det ogsÄ bidra til Ä nÄ forvaltningsmÄlene
Environmental attitudes associated with large-scale cultural differences, not local environmental conflicts
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