The global distribution of Bacillus anthracis and associated anthrax risk to humans, livestock and wildlife.

Bacillus anthracis is a spore-forming, Gram-positive bacterium responsible for anthrax, an acute infection that most significantly affects grazing livestock and wild ungulates, but also poses a threat to human health. The geographic extent of B. anthracis is poorly understood, despite multi-decade research on anthrax epizootic and epidemic dynamics; many countries have limited or inadequate surveillance systems, even within known endemic regions. Here, we compile a global occurrence dataset of human, livestock and wildlife anthrax outbreaks. With these records, we use boosted regression trees to produce a map of the global distribution of B. anthracis as a proxy for anthrax risk. We estimate that 1.83 billion people (95% credible interval (CI): 0.59-4.16 billion) live within regions of anthrax risk, but most of that population faces little occupational exposure. More informatively, a global total of 63.8 million poor livestock keepers (95% CI: 17.5-168.6 million) and 1.1 billion livestock (95% CI: 0.4-2.3 billion) live within vulnerable regions. Human and livestock vulnerability are both concentrated in rural rainfed systems throughout arid and temperate land across Eurasia, Africa and North America. We conclude by mapping where anthrax risk could disrupt sensitive conservation efforts for wild ungulates that coincide with anthrax-prone landscapes

Analysing the spatial patterns of livestock anthrax in Kazakhstan in relation to environmental factors: a comparison of local (Gi*) and morphology cluster statistics

We compared a local clustering and a cluster morphology statistic using anthrax outbreaks in large (cattle) and small (sheep and goats) domestic ruminants across Kazakhstan. The Getis-Ord (Gi*) statistic and a multidirectional optimal ecotope algorithm (AMOEBA) were compared using 1st, 2nd, and 3rd order Rook contiguity matrices. Multivariate statistical tests were used to evaluate the environmental signatures between clusters and non-clusters from the AMOEBA and Gi* tests. A logistic regression was used to define a risk surface for anthrax outbreaks and to compare agreement between clustering methodologies. Tests revealed differences in the spatial distribution of clusters as well as the total number of clusters in large ruminants for AMOEBA (n = 149) and for small ruminants (n = 9). In contrast, Gi* revealed fewer large ruminant clusters (n = 122) and more small ruminant clusters (n = 61). Significant environmental differences were found between groups using the Kruskall-Wallis and Mann-Whitney U tests. Logistic regression was used to model the presence/absence of anthrax outbreaks and define a risk surface for large ruminants to compare with cluster analyses. The model predicted 32.2% of the landscape as high risk. Approximately 75% of AMOEBA clusters corresponded to predicted high risk, compared with ~64% of Gi* clusters. In general, AMOEBA predicted more irregularly shaped clusters of outbreaks in both livestock groups, while Gi* tended to predicted larger, circular clusters. Here we provide an evaluation of both tests and a discussion of the use of each to detect environmental conditions associated with anthrax outbreak clusters in domestic livestock. These findings illustrate important differences in spatial statistical methods for defining local clusters and highlight the importance of selecting appropriate levels of data aggregation

Analyzing the spatial and temporal distribution of human brucellosis in Azerbaijan (1995 - 2009) using spatial and spatio-temporal statistics

Abstract Background Human brucellosis represents a significant burden to public and veterinary health globally, including the republic of Azerbaijan. The purpose of this study was to examine and describe the spatial and temporal aspects of the epidemiology of human brucellosis in Azerbaijan from 1995 to 2009. Methods A Geographic information system (GIS) was used to identify potential changes in the spatial and temporal distribution of human brucellosis in Azerbaijan during the study period. Epidemiological information on the age, gender, date, and location of incident cases were obtained from disease registries housed at the Republican Anti-Plague station in Baku. Cumulative incidences per 100,000 populations were calculated at the district level for three, 5-year periods. Spatial and temporal cluster analyses were performed using the Local Moran’s I and the Ederer-Myer-Mantel (EMM) test. Results A total of 7,983 cases of human brucellosis were reported during the 15-year study period. Statistically significant spatial clusters were identified in each of three, five year time periods with cumulative incidence rates ranging from 101.1 (95% CI: 82.8, 124.3) to 203.0 (95% CI; 176.4, 234.8). Spatial clustering was predominant in the west early in the study during period 1 and then in the east during periods 2 and 3. The EMM test identified a greater number of statistically significant temporal clusters in period 1 (1995 to 1999). Conclusion These results suggest that human brucellosis persisted annually in Azerbaijan across the study period. The current situation necessitates the development of appropriate surveillance aimed at improving control and mitigation strategies in order to help alleviate the current burden of disease on the population. Areas of concern identified as clusters by the spatial-temporal statistical analyses can provide a starting point for implementing targeted intervention efforts.</p

Human Cutaneous Anthrax, Georgia 2010–2012

We assessed the occurrence of human cutaneous anthrax in Georgia during 2010–-2012 by examining demographic and spatial characteristics of reported cases. Reporting increased substantially, as did clustering of cases near urban centers. Control efforts, including education about anthrax and livestock vaccination, can be directed at areas of high risk

Evidence of local persistence of human anthrax in the country of georgia associated with environmental and anthropogenic factors.

BACKGROUND: Anthrax is a soil-borne disease caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis and is considered a neglected zoonosis. In the country of Georgia, recent reports have indicated an increase in the incidence of human anthrax. Identifying sub-national areas of increased risk may help direct appropriate public health control measures. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the spatial distribution of human anthrax and identify environmental/anthropogenic factors associated with persistent clusters. METHODS/FINDINGS: A database of human cutaneous anthrax in Georgia during the period 2000-2009 was constructed using a geographic information system (GIS) with case data recorded to the community location. The spatial scan statistic was used to identify persistence of human cutaneous anthrax. Risk factors related to clusters of persistence were modeled using a multivariate logistic regression. Areas of persistence were identified in the southeastern part of the country. Results indicated that the persistence of human cutaneous anthrax showed a strong positive association with soil pH and urban areas. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Anthrax represents a persistent threat to public and veterinary health in Georgia. The findings here showed that the local level heterogeneity in the persistence of human cutaneous anthrax necessitates directed interventions to mitigate the disease. High risk areas identified in this study can be targeted for public health control measures such as farmer education and livestock vaccination campaigns

Seroprevalence of Brucellosis in Livestock within Three Endemic Regions of the Country of Georgia

Brucellosis is the one of most common livestock zoonoses in Georgia, resulting in significant economic losses. Livestock were sampled in three regions of Georgia (Kakheti, Kvemo Kartli, Imereti). Districts that historically reported high numbers of brucellosis related morbidity were selected for serological, bacteriological and molecular surveys. Surveying efforts yielded samples from 10,819 large and small ruminants. In total, 735 serological tests were positive on Rose Bengal and 33 bacterial isolates were recovered and identified as Brucella melitensis or Brucella abortus by microbiology and AMOS-PCR. A Bayesian framework was implemented to estimate the true prevalence of the disease given an imperfect diagnostic test. Regional posterior median true prevalence estimates ranged from 2.7% (95% CI: 1.4, 7.2) in Kvemo Kartli, 0.8% (95% CI: 0.0, 3.6) in Kakheti, to an estimate of 0.6% (95% CI: 0.0, 2.9) in Imereti. Accurate and efficient surveillance of brucellosis is not only of economic value, but also informs efforts to reduce the disease impact on the human population