UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017: Evidence Report. Chapter 5: People & the built environment

Increasing temperatures, rising sea-levels and modified rainfall patterns will change the climate-related risks to people and the built environment. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency, severity and extent of flooding. According to research conducted to support the CCRA, at present an estimated 1.8 million people are living in areas of the UK at significant risk of river, surface water or coastal flooding. The population living in such areas is projected to rise to 2.6 million by the 2050s under a 2°C scenario and 3.3 million under a 4°C scenario, assuming low population growth and a continuation of current levels of adaptation. Analysis conducted for the CCRA suggests that 0.5 to 1 metre of sea level rise could make some 200km of coastal flood defences in England highly vulnerable to failure in storm conditions. Sea level rise and increased wave action will make it increasingly difficult and costly to maintain current sea defence lines in some areas. The number of heat-related deaths in the UK are projected to increase by around 250% by the 2050s (median estimate), due to climate change, population growth and ageing, from a current annual baseline of around 2,000 heat-related deaths per year. There are also potential opportunities associated with higher temperatures. For example, outdoor activities may become more attractive, with perhaps an increase in active travel such as cycling and walking. Very little quantitative evidence exists that considers these benefits. Cold is currently a significant public health problem, with between 35,800 and 49,700 cold-related deaths per year on average in the UK. Climate change is projected to reduce the health risks from cold, but the number of cold-related deaths is projected to decline only slightly due to the effects of a growing, ageing population increasing the number of vulnerable people at risk. Health services will be vulnerable to an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. The capacity of the system to cope with shocks is unknown but could decrease given pressures on the health service and local authorities. Higher temperatures in the future may lead to the expansion of insect vectors for certain diseases. For example, Culex modestus has recently been found in south-east England and is a vector for West Nile virus. Higher temperatures in the future will also increase the suitability of the UK’s climate for invasive mosquito species. The risk of dengue and the Chikungunya virus remains low in the near term but may increase under a 4C scenario. The risk of malaria in the UK remains low

The Tychonoff uniqueness theorem for the G-heat equation

In this paper, we obtain the Tychonoff uniqueness theorem for the G-heat equation

The impact of climatic risk factors on the prevalence, distribution, and severity of acute and chronic trachoma.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Trachoma is the most common cause of infectious blindness. Hot, dry climates, dust and water scarcity are thought to be associated with the distribution of trachoma but the evidence is unclear. The aim of this study was to evaluate the epidemiological evidence regarding the extent to which climatic factors explain the current prevalence, distribution, and severity of acute and chronic trachoma. Understanding the present relationship between climate and trachoma could help inform current and future disease elimination. METHODS: A systematic review of peer-reviewed literature was conducted to identify observational studies which quantified an association between climate factors and acute or chronic trachoma and which met the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Studies that assessed the association between climate types and trachoma prevalence were also reviewed. RESULTS: Only eight of the 1751 papers retrieved met the inclusion criteria, all undertaken in Africa. Several papers reported an association between trachoma prevalence and altitude in highly endemic areas, providing some evidence of a role for temperature in the transmission of acute disease. A robust mapping study found strong evidence of an association between low rainfall and active trachoma. There is also consistent but weak evidence that the prevalence of trachoma is higher in savannah-type ecological zones. There were no studies on the effect of climate in low endemic areas, nor on the effect of dust on trachoma. CONCLUSION: Current evidence on the potential role of climate on trachoma distribution is limited, despite a wealth of anecdotal evidence. Temperature and rainfall appear to play a role in the transmission of acute trachoma, possibly mediated through reduced activity of flies at lower temperatures. Further research is needed on climate and other environmental and behavioural factors, particularly in arid and savannah areas. Many studies did not adequately control for socioeconomic or environmental confounders

Climate change and human health: impacts, vulnerability, and mitigation.

It is now widely accepted that climate change is occurring as a result of the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere arising from the combustion of fossil fuels. Climate change may affect health through a range of pathways--eg, as a result of increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, reduction in cold-related deaths, increased floods and droughts, changes in the distribution of vector-borne diseases, and effects on the risk of disasters and malnutrition. The overall balance of effects on health is likely to be negative and populations in low-income countries are likely to be particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects. The experience of the 2003 heat wave in Europe shows that high-income countries might also be adversely affected. Adaptation to climate change requires public-health strategies and improved surveillance. Mitigation of climate change by reducing the use of fossil fuels and increasing the use of a number of renewable energy technologies should improve health in the near term by reducing exposure to air pollution

Climate change and human health: impacts, vulnerability and public health.

It is now widely accepted that climate change is occurring as a result of the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere arising from the combustion of fossil fuels. Climate change may affect health through a range of pathways, for example as a result of increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, reduction in cold related deaths, increased floods and droughts, changes in the distribution of vector-borne diseases and effects on the risk of disasters and malnutrition. The overall balance of effects on health is likely to be negative and populations in low-income countries are likely to be particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects. The experience of the 2003 heat wave in Europe shows that high-income countries may also be adversely affected. Adaptation to climate change requires public health strategies and improved surveillance. Mitigation of climate change by reducing the use of fossil fuels and increasing a number of uses of the renewable energy technologies should improve health in the near-term by reducing exposure to air pollution

The effectiveness of public health interventions to reduce the health impact of climate change:a systematic review of systematic reviews

Climate change is likely to be one of the most important threats to public health in the coming years. Yet despite the large number of papers considering the health impact of climate change, few have considered what public health interventions may be of most value in reducing the disease burden. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of public health interventions to reduce the disease burden of high priority climate sensitive diseases

ISCB Ebola Award for Important Future Research on the Computational Biology of Ebola Virus

Speed is of the essence in combating Ebola; thus, computational approaches should form a significant component of Ebola research. As for the development of any modern drug, computational biology is uniquely positioned to contribute through comparative analysis of the genome sequences of Ebola strains as well as 3-D protein modeling. Other computational approaches to Ebola may include large-scale docking studies of Ebola proteins with human proteins and with small-molecule libraries, computational modeling of the spread of the virus, computational mining of the Ebola literature, and creation of a curated Ebola database. Taken together, such computational efforts could significantly accelerate traditional scientific approaches. In recognition of the need for important and immediate solutions from the field of computational biology against Ebola, the International Society for Computational Biology (ISCB) announces a prize for an important computational advance in fighting the Ebola virus. ISCB will confer the ISCB Fight against Ebola Award, along with a prize of US$2,000, at its July 2016 annual meeting (ISCB Intelligent Systems for Molecular Biology [ISMB] 2016, Orlando, Florida)

The impact of climate on the abundance of Musca sorbens, the vector of trachoma

Background: To assess the extent to which climate may affect the abundance of Musca sorbens, a putative vector of trachoma. Data sources: Studies were identified by systematically searching online databases including CAB abstracts, Embase, Global Health, Medline, Web of Science and BIOS Online, references from key articles, and the websites of relevant international agencies. Methods: A systematic literature review was conducted of field and laboratory studies that reported the impact of climate factors (e.g., temperature, humidity) on the synanthropic fly Musca sorbens. Data were systematically extracted and studies assessed for quality by two readers. Study results were reported narratively. Results: A total of 16 studies met the inclusion criteria but only three evaluated associations between climatic/ abiotic factors and M. sorbens. Limited evidence indicates that M. sorbens abundance has an optimal temperature and humidity range. Thirteen studies reported seasonal patterns but no consistent pattern was found between season and the abundance of M. sorbens. Conclusions: The evidence base regarding the effect of climatic factors on M. sorbens is limited, so it is difficult to construct a biological model driven by climate for this species. A multivariate statistical approach based on the climate of sites where M. sorbens is found may better capture its complex relationship with climatic factors as well as aid in mapping the global range of M. sorbens

Impacts of Climate Change on indirect human exposure to pathogens and chemicals from agriculture

Objective: Climate change is likely to affect the nature of pathogens and chemicals in the environment and their fate and transport. Future risks of pathogens and chemicals could therefore be very different from those of today. In this review, we assess the implications of climate change for changes in human exposures to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems in the United Kingdom and discuss the subsequent effects on health impacts. Data sources: In this review, we used expert input and considered literature on climate change ; health effects resulting from exposure to pathogens and chemicals arising from agriculture ; inputs of chemicals and pathogens to agricultural systems ; and human exposure pathways for pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems. Data synthesis: We established the current evidence base for health effects of chemicals and pathogens in the agricultural environment ; determined the potential implications of climate change on chemical and pathogen inputs in agricultural systems ; and explored the effects of climate change on environmental transport and fate of different contaminant types. We combined these data to assess the implications of climate change in terms of indirect human exposure to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems. We then developed recommendations on future research and policy changes to manage any adverse increases in risks. Conclusions: Overall, climate change is likely to increase human exposures to agricultural contaminants. The magnitude of the increases will be highly dependent on the contaminant type. Risks from many pathogens and particulate and particle-associated contaminants could increase significantly. These increases in exposure can, however, be managed for the most part through targeted research and policy changes