Modeling of sorghum response to photoperiod: a threshold-hyperbolic approach

High photoperiod sensitivity is a singular trait for adaptation of sorghum to environmental constraints in sudano-sahelian West Africa. Difficulties encountered by selected models such as CERES-sorghum and STICS to simulate crop development may result from the representation of sorghum response to daylength during the photoperiod inductive phase. Four modeling approaches combining two temperature and photoperiod responses (linear, hyperbolic) and two calculation methods for development rates (cumulative, threshold) were evaluated to simulate time to panicle initiation (PI) in highly photoperiod sensitive Guinea sorghum variety CSM388. In the cumulative method, development rates were computed as summations of daily photothermal ratios, whereas in the threshold method accumulated degree days were tested against thermal time requirement to PI modulated by current photoperiod. Each model was calibrated based on observations from a Sotuba, Mali (12°39′N) planting date experiment spanning a 2-month period in 1996. Observed time from emergence to PI decreased from 54 to 22 days for a 20 min variation in daylength. Apparent higher performance by threshold methods was further tested against a 1994 independent dataset featuring three latitudes and a much wider range of sowing dates extending from February to September. Results validate the superiority of threshold over cumulative methods and confirm the better fit of a hyperbolic temperature and photoperiod response. A threshold-hyperbolic modeling approach is believed to be more consistent with crop physiology as it associates cumulative (temperature) processes and trigger (photoperiod) events that better reflect the concepts of quantitative plant growth and qualitative plant development. Its mathematical form and computational simplicity should ensure wide applicability for varietal screening over a large range of photoperiod sensitivities including neutral cultivars, and easy implementation into existing models

Climate prediction and agriculture: What Is different about Sudano-Sahelian West Africa?

Recurrent drought conditions that prevailed in the Sahel region of West Africa during the 1970s and 1980s have seriously challenged the resiliency of ecosystems and the adaptive capacity of human societies (IPCC 2001). This has triggered increased attention from the scientific community, resulting in a significant augmentation in climate-related publications and allowing for a better understanding of the complex regional and local climate

Climate change and cereal production evolution trend in the Sahel: case study in Mali from 1951 to 2010

Open Access Journal; Published online: 9 April 2019Mali is a Sahelian country with a large climatic contrast from North to South. The current climatic and production evolutionary study is focused on the six major agro-climatic cereal production zones ranging from Kayes (400 mm) to Sikasso (>1000 mm) of rainfalls. Climatic data are rainfall records, daily maximum and minimum temperatures from 60 years of the six major synoptic weather observation stations. Data were analyzed on comparing average decades of the two normal periods of 30 years (1951-1980) and (1981-2010). Annual agronomic production data for millet, sorghum, maize and rice are derived from Mali's agricultural statistics base from 1984 to 2013. Main climatic results analyses indicate that climate change resulted in a decrease of 100 mm isohyets between the 2 periods of 30 years. The structure of the rainy season was little changed between these two periods since the average start of the season was delayed by 6 days and the average end date of the season became earlier by 4 days. Maximum temperatures increased significantly from + 0.44°C to + 1.53°C and minimum temperatures significantly increased from + 1.05°C to + 1.93°C in varying way depending on the sites. Statistics of major agronomic food crop production in Mali from 1984 to 2013 indicate an average increase of 985 to 4492 thousand tones, or 22% increase per year. There is a positive upward in saw tooth trend in Malian production from 1984 to 2013. This positive trend is the result of a combination of agricultural extension, agronomic research application and the management of small farmer holder in the Sahel. This evolution needs better study for drawing necessary right conclusions

Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself?

Although global food demand is expected to increase 60% by 2050 compared with 2005/2007, the rise will be much greater in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Indeed, SSA is the region at greatest food security risk because by 2050 its population will increase 2.5-fold and demand for cereals approximately triple, whereas current levels of cereal consumption already depend on substantial imports. At issue is whether SSA can meet this vast increase in cereal demand without greater reliance on cereal imports or major expansion of agricultural area and associated biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions. Recent studies indicate that the global increase in food demand by 2050 can be met through closing the gap between current farm yield and yield potential on existing cropland. Here, however, we estimate it will not be feasible to meet future SSA cereal demand on existing production area by yield gap closure alone. Our agronomically robust yield gap analysis for 10 countries in SSA using location-specific data and a spatial upscaling approach reveals that, in addition to yield gap closure, other more complex and uncertain components of intensification are also needed, i.e., increasing cropping intensity (the number of crops grown per 12 mo on the same field) and sustainable expansion of irrigated production area. If intensification is not successful and massive cropland land expansion is to be avoided, SSA will depend much more on imports of cereals than it does today