Heavy rainfall in Mediterranean cyclones. Part I: contribution of deep convection and warm conveyor belt

In this study, we provide an insight to the role of deep convection (DC) and the warm conveyor belt (WCB) as leading processes to Mediterranean cyclones’ heavy rainfall. To this end, we use reanalysis da-ta, lighting and satellite observations to quantify the relative contribution of DC and the WCB to cyclone rainfall, as well as to analyse the spatial and temporal variability of these processes with respect to the cy-clone centre and life cycle. Results for the period 2005-2015 show that the relationship between cyclone rainfall and intensity has high variability and demonstrate that even intense cyclones may produce low rainfall amounts. However, when considering rainfall averages for cyclone intensity bins, a linear relationship was found. We focus on the 500 most intense tracked cyclones (responsible for about 40-50% of the total 11-year Mediterrane-an rainfall) and distinguish between the ones producing high and low rainfall amounts. DC and the WCB are found to be the main cause of rainfall for the former (producing up to 70% of cyclone rainfall), while, for the latter, DC and the WCB play a secondary role (producing up to 50% of rainfall). Further analysis showed that rainfall due to DC tends to occur close to the cyclones’ centre and to their eastern sides, while the WCBs tend to produce rainfall towards the northeast. In fact, about 30% of rainfall produced by DC overlaps with rainfall produced by WCBs but this represents only about 8% of rainfall produced by WCBs. This suggests that a considerable percentage of DC is associated with embedded convection in WCBs. Finally, DC was found to be able to produce higher rain rates than WCBs, exceeding 50 mm in 3-hourly accumulated rainfall compared to a maximum of the order of 40 mm for WCBs. Our results demonstrate in a climatological framework the relationship between cyclone intensity and pro-cesses that lead to heavy rainfall, one of the most prominent environmental risks in the Mediterranean. Therefore, we set perspectives for a deeper analysis of the favourable atmospheric conditions that yield high impact weather

Mapping Flood-Related Mortality in the Mediterranean Basin. Results from the MEFF v2.0 DB

Recent events in Western Attica in Greece (24 deaths in November 2017), in the Balearic Islands (13 deaths in October 2018), and in southern France (15 deaths in October 2018) show that flood-related mortality remains a major concern in Mediterranean countries facing flash floods. Over the past several years, many initiatives have arisen to create databases on flood-related mortality. An international initiative started in 2011 pooling regional and national databases on flood mortality from region and/or countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea. The MEditerranean Flood Fatality Database (MEFF DB) brings together, in 2018, six Mediterranean regions/countries: Catalonia (Spain), Balearic Islands (Spain), Southern France, Calabria (Italy), Greece, and Turkey, and covers the period 1980-2018. MEFF DB is on progress and, every year, new data are included, but for this study, we kept only the preliminary data that were geolocated and validated on 31st of December 2018. This research introduces a new step in the analysis of flood-related mortality and follows the statistical description of the MEFF DB already published. The goals of this paper are to draw the spatial distribution of flood mortality through a geographical information system (GIS) at different spatial scales: country, NUTS 3 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics. Level 3) regions, catchment areas, and grid. A fatality rate (F: number of deaths/year/million of inhabitants) is created to help this analysis. Then, we try to relate mortality to basic (human or physical) drivers such as population density, rainfall seasonality, or rainfall frequency across the Mediterranean Basin. The mapping of F shows a negative mortality gradient between the western and the eastern parts of the Mediterranean Sea. The south of France appears to be the most affected region. The maps also highlight the seasonality of flood-related deaths with the same west-east gradient. It confirms that flood mortality follows the climatological seasonal patterns across the Mediterranean Basin. Flood-related fatalities mainly occur during the early fall season in the western part of the Mediterranean area, while the Easter Basin is affected later, in November or during the winter season. Eastern Turkey introduces another pattern, as mortality is more severe in summer. Mortality maps are then compared with factors that potentially contribute to the occurrence of flood fatalities, such as precipitation intensity (rainfall hazard), to explain geographical differences in the fatality rate. The density of a fatal event is correlated to the population density and the rainfall frequency. Conversely, the average number of deaths per event depends on other factors such as prevention or crisis managemen

The FLASH project: using lightning data to better understand and predict flash floods

The FLASH project was implemented from 2006 to 2010 underthe EU FP6 framework. The project focused on using lightning observations to better understand and predict convective storms that result in flash floods. As part of the project 23 case studies of flash floods in the Mediterranean region were examined. For the analysis of these storms lightning data from the ZEUS network were used together with satellite derived rainfall estimates in orderto understand the storm development and electrification. In addition, these case studies were simulated using mesoscale meteorological models to better understand the meteorological and synoptic conditions leading up to these intense storms. As part of this project tools for short term predictions (nowcasts) of intenseconvection across the Mediterranean and Europe, and long term forecasts (a few days) of the likelihood of intense convection were developed. The project also focused on educationaloutreach through our website http://flashproject.orgsupplying real time lightning observations, real time experimental nowcasts, forecasts and educational materials. While flash floods and intense thunderstorms cannot be preventedas the climate changes, long-range regional lightning networks can supply valuable data, in realtime, for warningend-users and stakeholders of imminent intense rainfall and possible flash floods

Flood Fatalities in Europe, 1980-2018: Variability, Features, and Lessons to Learn

Floods are still a significant threat to people, despite of the considerable developments in forecasting, management, defensive, and rescue works. In the near future, climate and societal changes as both urbanization of flood prone areas and individual dangerous behaviors could increase flood fatalities. This paper analyzes flood mortality in eight countries using a 39-year database (1980-2018) named EUFF (EUropean Flood Fatalities), which was built using documentary sources. The narratives of fatalities were investigated and standardized in the database reporting the details of the events. The entire dataset shows a stable trend on flood fatalities, despite the existence of individual increasing (Greece, Italy, and South France) and decreasing (Turkey and Catalonia) trends. The 2466 fatalities were mainly males, aged between 30-49 years and the majority of them happened outdoor. Most often people were dragged by water/mud when travelling by motor vehicles. Some cases of hazardous behaviors, such as fording rivers, were also detected. The primary cause of death was drowning, followed by heart attack. This work contributes to understand the human-flood interaction that caused fatalities. The changes in society's vulnerability highlighted throughout this study contribute to manage future risks, to improve people protection actions, and to reduce risk behaviors

Numerical simulation of Tehran dust storm on 2 june 2014: A case study of agricultural abandoned lands as emission sources

On 2 June 2014, at about 13 UTC, a dust storm arrived in Tehran as a severe hazard that caused injures, deaths, failures in power supply, and traffic disruption. Such an extreme event is not considered as common for the Tehran area, which has raised the question of the dust storm’s origin and the need for increasing citizens’ preparedness during such events. The analysis of the observational data and numerical simulations using coupled dust-atmospheric models showed that intensive convective activity occurred over the south and southwest of Tehran, which produced cold downdrafts and, consequently, high-velocity surface winds. Different dust source masks were used as an input for model hindcasts of the event (forecasts of the past event) to show the capability of the numerical models to perform high-quality forecasts in such events and to expand the knowledge on the storm’s formation and progression. In addition to the proven capability of the models, if engaged in operational use to contribute to the establishment of an early warning system for dust storms, another conclusion appeared as a highlight of this research: abandoned agricultural areas south of Tehran were responsible for over 50% of the airborne dust concentration within the dust storm that surged through Tehran. Such a dust source in the numerical simulation produced a PM10 surface dust concentration of several thousand µm/m3, which classifies it as a dust source hot-spot. The produced evidence indivisibly links issues of land degradation, extreme weather, environmental protection, and health and safety

Multi-sectoral impact assessment of an extreme African dust episode in the Eastern Mediterranean in March 2018

In late March 2018, a large part of the Eastern Mediterranean experienced an extraordinary episode of African dust, one of the most intense in recent years, here referred to as the “Minoan Red” event. The episode mainly affected the Greek island of Crete, where the highest aerosol concentrations over the past 15 yeas were recorded, although impacts were also felt well beyond this core area. Our study fills a gap in dust research by assessing the multi-sectoral impacts of sand and dust storms and their socioeconomic implications. Specifically, we provide a multi-sectoral impact assessment of Crete during the occurrence of this exceptional African dust event. During the day of the occurrence of the maximum dust concentration in Crete, i.e. March 22nd, 2018, we identified impacts on meteorological conditions, agriculture, transport, energy, society (including closing of schools and cancellation of social events), and emergency response systems. As a result, the event led to a 3-fold increase in daily emergency responses compare to previous days associated with urban emergencies and wildfires, a 3.5-fold increase in hospital visits and admissions for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) exacerbations and dyspnoea, a reduction of visibility causing aircraft traffic disruptions (eleven cancellations and seven delays), and a reduction of solar energy production. We estimate the cost of direct and indirect effects of the dust episode, considering the most affected socio-economic sectors (e.g. civil protection, aviation, health and solar energy production), to be between 3.4 and 3.8 million EUR for Crete. Since such desert dust transport episodes are natural, meteorology-driven and thus to a large extent unavoidable, we argue that the efficiency of actions to mitigate dust impacts depends on the accuracy of operational dust forecasting and the implementation of relevant early warning systems for social awareness.Thanks are due to FCT/MCTES for the financial support to CESAM (UIDP/50017/2020+UIDB/50017/2020) through national funds, and also to the Icelandic Research Fund for the grant no. 207057-051. Authors S. Kazadzis and P. Kosmopoulos would like to acknowledge the European Commission project EuroGEO e-shape (grant agreement No 820852). Also, International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction (ICAP) and NASA mission researchers are gratefully for providing aerosol data for this study. Aurelio Tobias was supported by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 (grant CEX2018-000794-S). S. Kutuzov acknowledges the Megagrant project (agreement No. 075-15-2021-599, 8.06.2021)

Optimizing the Knowledge on Residential Heating Characteristics in Greece via Crowd-Sourcing Approach

Households have been pointed out as a significant source of air pollution and climate change. In Europe, the 60% of energy used by households is for space heating. The present work focuses on improving the knowledge on residential heating characteristics in Greece. The full causal chain, from the appliances used to the pollutants emitted, is examined at thelocal scale. A crowdsourcing approach was followed for the collection of the necessary data for performing the emissions calculations. With the use of a Geographic Information System (GIS), dynamic maps were produced for each Greek region, providing the information produced in this study in gridded form. In terms of energy demands, it was found that Greece relies mainly on oil and biomass and secondarily on gas and electricity. The use of biomass burning as a main heating fuel is quite high inthe colder and rural areas, while it is popular as a secondary heating fuel inthe urban areas. The residential heating period in Greece lasts from October to April and it is even shorter in southern Greece. In terms of emissions, CO and PM10 had the highest values since they are related to biomass burning. NOx emissions are mainly emitted by the oil burned in boilers

Long-Term Patterns and Trends of Shortwave Global Irradiance over the Euro-Mediterranean Region

The spatiotemporal patterns and trends of shortwave global irradiance (SWGI) are a crucial factor affecting not only the climate but also sectors of the economy. In this work, the ERA5-Land reanalysis dataset is employed and evaluated against in situ measurements from a dense network of surface stations operated by the National Observatory of Athens over Greece, revealing a good agreement between the two datasets. Then, the spatiotemporal variability of SWGI is investigated over the Euro-Mediterranean region (10° W–42° E and 30° N–52° N) for a 40-year period (1981–2020). SWGI exhibits a smooth latitudinal variability from north to south of −5.4 W/m2/degree on an annual scale, while it varies significantly on a seasonal basis and is almost four times lower in the winter than in the summer. The SWGI trend during the analyzed period was found to be positive and statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Spring and summer are the periods where positive and the strongest rates of SWGI trends are evident, while in the winter and autumn, negative or neutral trends were found. The increasing SWGI trend shows a slowdown during the beginning of the 2000s in all seasons, except autumn. The SWGI trend decreases by about −0.06 W/m2/decade every 100 m of elevation increase

Numerical study of a heavy precipitation event over southern France, in the frame of HYMEX project: Observational analysis and model results using assimilation of lightning

International audienceHere, a heavy precipitation event that affected Southern France in the period of 6–8 September 2010 is studied. This event produced more than 300 mm in a 24-h period and resulted in floods in an area that has been often affected by similar events during autumn.The system has been monitored by in situ surface stations, radar, lightning networks and satellites that put into evidence the anchoring of convective cells along mountainous areas. The precipitation episode was simulated using the MM5 non-hydrostatic model at very high resolution. Moreover, an assimilation technique has been applied that controls the activation of the convective parameterisation scheme using lightning data as a proxy for the presence of convection. The assimilation of lightning proved to have a positive impact on the representation of the precipitation field, providing also more realistic positioning of the precipitation maxima, mainly during the second day of the event. The improvement of the model simulation when lightning was assimilated was quantitatively supported by the verification against observations.The improvement of monitoring, understanding and forecasting of such type of events is in line with the scientific topics prescribed within HYMEX international project