Transient flows in active porous media

Stimuli-responsive materials that modify their shape in response to changes in environmental conditions -- such as solute concentration, temperature, pH, and stress -- are widespread in nature and technology. Applications include micro- and nanoporous materials used in filtration and flow control. The physiochemical mechanisms that induce internal volume modifications have been widely studies. The coupling between induced volume changes and solute transport through porous materials, however, is not well understood. Here, we consider advective and diffusive transport through a small channel linking two large reservoirs. A section of stimulus-responsive material regulates the channel permeability, which is a function of the local solute concentration. We derive an exact solution to the coupled transport problem and demonstrate the existence of a flow regime in which the steady state is reached via a damped oscillation around the equilibrium concentration value. Finally, the feasibility of an experimental observation of the phenomena is discussed. Please note that this version of the paper has not been formally peer reviewed, revised or accepted by a journal

Improved estimation in cumulative link models

For the estimation of cumulative link models for ordinal data, the bias reducing adjusted score equations of Firth in 1993 are obtained, whose solution ensures an estimator with smaller asymptotic bias than the maximum likelihood estimator. Their form suggests a parameter-dependent adjustment of the multinomial counts, which in turn suggests the solution of the adjusted score equations through iterated maximum likelihood fits on adjusted counts, greatly facilitating implementation. Like the maximum likelihood estimator, the reduced bias estimator is found to respect the invariance properties that make cumulative link models a good choice for the analysis of categorical data. Its additional finiteness and optimal frequentist properties, along with the adequate behaviour of related asymptotic inferential procedures, make the reduced bias estimator attractive as a default choice for practical applications. Furthermore, the estimator proposed enjoys certain shrinkage properties that are defensible from an experimental point of view relating to the nature of ordinal data

A Bayesian approach for determining player abilities in football

We consider the task of determining a football player’s ability for a given event type, for example, scoring a goal. We propose an interpretable Bayesian model which is fit using variational inference methods. We implement a Poisson model to capture occurrences of event types, from which we infer player abilities. Our approach also allows the visualisation of differences between players, for a specific ability, through the marginal posterior variational densities. We then use these inferred player abilities to extend the Bayesian hierarchical model of Baio and Blangiardo (2010, Journal of Applied Statistics, 37(2), 253–264) which captures a team’s scoring rate (the rate at which they score goals). We apply the resulting scheme to the English Premier League, capturing player abilities over the 2013/2014 season, before using output from the hierarchical model to predict whether over or under 2.5 goals will be scored in a given game in the 2014/2015 season. This validates our model as a way of providing insights into team formation and the individual success of sports teams

The ejection of triatomic molecular hydrogen ions H-3(+) produced by the interaction of benzene molecules with ultrafast laser pulses

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‘The International Teacher Leadership project,’ a case of international action research.

Copyright CARNThe paper arises from the International Teacher Leadership project, a research and development project involving researchers and practitioners in 14 European countries. The paper provides a conceptual exploration of the idea of teacher leadership and its role in educational reform, central to which is the idea that teachers, regardless of their level of power and organisational position, can engage in the leadership of enquiry-based development activity aimed at influencing their colleagues and embedding improved practices in their schools. The paper provides an outline of the project’s methodology which builds on that used in the Carpe Vitam Leadership for Learning project (Frost, 2008a). It is a form of collaborative action research which is highly developmental and discursive. It seeks to identify principles, strategies and tools that can be applied in a range of cultural settings. The paper includes a thematic analysis of the cultural contexts and policy environments of the participating countries in order to identify the obstacles to teacher leadership and to inform the nature of the support strategies employed

Incidence and prevalence of major central nervous system involvement in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus: A 3-year prospective study of 370 patients

Background: The incidence and prevalence of CNS involvement in SLE remains unclear owing to conflicting results in the published studies. The aim of the study was to evaluate the incidence and prevalence of major definite CNS events in SLE patients. Methods: 370 SLE patients with no previous history of CNS involvement were prospectively evaluated in a tertiary hospital referral center for 3 years. Major CNS manifestations were codified according to ACR definitions, including chorea, aseptic meningitis, psychosis, seizures, myelopathy, demyelinating syndrome, acute confusional state and strokes. Minor CNS events were excluded. ECLAM and SLEDAI-SELENA Modification scores were used to evaluate disease activity and SLICC/ACR Damage Index was used to assess accumulated damage. Results: 16/370 (4.3%) patients presented with a total of 23 major CNS events. These included seizures (35%), strokes (26%), myelopathy (22%), optic neuritis (8.7%), aseptic meningitis (4.3%) and acute psychosis (4.3%). Incidence was 7.8/100 person years. Among hospitalizations for SLE, 13% were due to CNS manifestations. Epileptic seizures were associated with high disease activity, while myelopathy correlated with lower disease activity and NMO-IgG antibodies (P#0.05). Stroke incidence correlated with APS coexistence (P = 0.06). Overall, CNS involvement correlated with high ECLAM and SLEDAI scores (P,0.001). Conclusions: Clinically severe CNS involvement is rare in SLE patients, accounting for 7.8/100 person years. CNS involvement correlates with high disease activity and coexistence of specific features that define the respective CNS syndromes

A duality of generalized metric spaces

AbstractWe develop a duality theory for Lawvereʼs generalized metric spaces that extends the Lawson duality for continuous dcpos and open filter reflecting maps: we prove that the category of relatively cocomplete and continuous [0,∞]-categories considered with open filter reflecting maps is self-dual

Modeling outcomes of soccer matches

We compare various extensions of the Bradley–Terry model and a hierarchical Poisson log-linear model in terms of their performance in predicting the outcome of soccer matches (win, draw, or loss). The parameters of the Bradley–Terry extensions are estimated by maximizing the log-likelihood, or an appropriately penalized version of it, while the posterior densities of the parameters of the hierarchical Poisson log-linear model are approximated using integrated nested Laplace approximations. The prediction performance of the various modeling approaches is assessed using a novel, context-specific framework for temporal validation that is found to deliver accurate estimates of the test error. The direct modeling of outcomes via the various Bradley–Terry extensions and the modeling of match scores using the hierarchical Poisson log-linear model demonstrate similar behavior in terms of predictive performance

Some discussions of D. Fearnhead and D. Prangle's Read Paper "Constructing summary statistics for approximate Bayesian computation: semi-automatic approximate Bayesian computation"

This report is a collection of comments on the Read Paper of Fearnhead and Prangle (2011), to appear in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, along with a reply from the authors