Flexibiliteit èn zekerheid in waterbeheer, het kan: interactieve uitvoering

In complexe, gebiedsgerichte projecten staat een projectleider vaak voor een dilemma: moeten we keuzes snel vastleggen of juist mogelijkheden openhouden? Met openhouden creëer je flexibiliteit. Het geeft ruimte om in te blijven spelen op onverwachte ontwikkelingen in het planproces. Met snel vastleggen creëer je zekerheid. Het geeft je planproces richting en duidelijkheid. Ondergetekenden betogen dat de oplossing van dit dilemma ligt in het combineren van flexibiliteit met zekerheid. Aan de hand van een concreet waterschapsproject laten we zien dat dit combineren mogelijk is. We bieden bovendien ideeën die andere projectleiders kunnen helpen om ook in hun projecten flexibiliteit en zekerheid te combineren

Field experiments and meta-analysis reveal wetland vegetation as a crucial element in the coastal protection paradigm

Increasing rates of sea-level rise and wave action threaten coastal populations. Defense of shorelines by protection and restoration of wetlands has been invoked as a win-win strategy for humans and nature, yet evidence from field experiments supporting the wetland protection function is uncommon, as is the understanding of its context dependency. Here we provide evidence from field manipulations showing that the loss of wetland vegetation, regardless of disturbance size, increases the rate of erosion on wave-stressed shorelines. Vegetation removal (simulated disturbance) along the edge of salt marshes reveals that loss of wetland plants elevates the rate of lateral erosion and that extensive root systems, rather than aboveground biomass, are primarily responsible for protection against edge erosion in marshes. Meta-analysis further shows that disturbances that generate plant dieoff on salt marsh edges generally hasten edge erosion in coastal marshes and that the erosion protection function of wetlands relates more to lateral than vertical edge-erosional processes and is positively correlated with the amount of below-ground plant biomass lost. Collectively, our findings substantiate a coastal protection paradigm that incorporates preservation of shoreline vegetation, illuminate key context dependencies in this theory, and highlight local disturbances (e.g., oil spills) that kill wetland plants as agents that can accelerate coastal erosion

Persistence, extinction and spatio-temporal synchronization of SIRS cellular automata models

Spatially explicit models have been widely used in today's mathematical ecology and epidemiology to study persistence and extinction of populations as well as their spatial patterns. Here we extend the earlier work--static dispersal between neighbouring individuals to mobility of individuals as well as multi-patches environment. As is commonly found, the basic reproductive ratio is maximized for the evolutionary stable strategy (ESS) on diseases' persistence in mean-field theory. This has important implications, as it implies that for a wide range of parameters that infection rate will tend maximum. This is opposite with present results obtained in spatial explicit models that infection rate is limited by upper bound. We observe the emergence of trade-offs of extinction and persistence on the parameters of the infection period and infection rate and show the extinction time having a linear relationship with respect to system size. We further find that the higher mobility can pronouncedly promote the persistence of spread of epidemics, i.e., the phase transition occurs from extinction domain to persistence domain, and the spirals' wavelength increases as the mobility increasing and ultimately, it will saturate at a certain value. Furthermore, for multi-patches case, we find that the lower coupling strength leads to anti-phase oscillation of infected fraction, while higher coupling strength corresponds to in-phase oscillation.Comment: 12page

Fast flowing populations are not well mixed

In evolutionary dynamics, well-mixed populations are almost always associated with all-to-all interactions; mathematical models are based on complete graphs. In most cases, these models do not predict fixation probabilities in groups of individuals mixed by flows. We propose an analytical description in the fast-flow limit. This approach is valid for processes with global and local selection, and accurately predicts the suppression of selection as competition becomes more local. It provides a modelling tool for biological or social systems with individuals in motion.Comment: 19 pages, 8 figure

The breadth of primary care: a systematic literature review of its core dimensions

Background: Even though there is general agreement that primary care is the linchpin of effective health care delivery, to date no efforts have been made to systematically review the scientific evidence supporting this supposition. The aim of this study was to examine the breadth of primary care by identifying its core dimensions and to assess the evidence for their interrelations and their relevance to outcomes at (primary) health system level. Methods: A systematic review of the primary care literature was carried out, restricted to English language journals reporting original research or systematic reviews. Studies published between 2003 and July 2008 were searched in MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library, CINAHL, King's Fund Database, IDEAS Database, and EconLit. Results: Eighty-five studies were identified. This review was able to provide insight in the complexity of primary care as a multidimensional system, by identifying ten core dimensions that constitute a primary care system. The structure of a primary care system consists of three dimensions: 1. governance; 2. economic conditions; and 3. workforce development. The primary care process is determined by four dimensions: 4. access; 5. continuity of care; 6. coordination of care; and 7. comprehensiveness of care. The outcome of a primary care system includes three dimensions: 8. quality of care; 9. efficiency care; and 10. equity in health. There is a considerable evidence base showing that primary care contributes through its dimensions to overall health system performance and health. Conclusions: A primary care system can be defined and approached as a multidimensional system contributing to overall health system performance and health

Spatial distribution and risk factors of Brucellosis in Iberian wild ungulates

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The role of wildlife as a brucellosis reservoir for humans and domestic livestock remains to be properly established. The aim of this work was to determine the aetiology, apparent prevalence, spatial distribution and risk factors for brucellosis transmission in several Iberian wild ungulates.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A multi-species indirect immunosorbent assay (iELISA) using <it>Brucella </it>S-LPS antigen was developed. In several regions having brucellosis in livestock, individual serum samples were taken between 1999 and 2009 from 2,579 wild bovids, 6,448 wild cervids and4,454 Eurasian wild boar (<it>Sus scrofa</it>), and tested to assess brucellosis apparent prevalence. Strains isolated from wild boar were characterized to identify the presence of markers shared with the strains isolated from domestic pigs.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Mean apparent prevalence below 0.5% was identified in chamois (<it>Rupicapra pyrenaica</it>), Iberian wild goat (<it>Capra pyrenaica</it>), and red deer (<it>Cervus elaphus</it>). Roe deer (<it>Capreolus capreolus</it>), fallow deer (<it>Dama dama</it>), mouflon (<it>Ovis aries</it>) and Barbary sheep (<it>Ammotragus lervia</it>) tested were seronegative. Only one red deer and one Iberian wild goat resulted positive in culture, isolating <it>B. abortus </it>biovar 1 and <it>B. melitensis </it>biovar 1, respectively. Apparent prevalence in wild boar ranged from 25% to 46% in the different regions studied, with the highest figures detected in South-Central Spain. The probability of wild boar being positive in the iELISA was also affected by age, age-by-sex interaction, sampling month, and the density of outdoor domestic pigs. A total of 104 bacterial isolates were obtained from wild boar, being all identified as <it>B. suis </it>biovar 2. DNA polymorphisms were similar to those found in domestic pigs.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In conclusion, brucellosis in wild boar is widespread in the Iberian Peninsula, thus representing an important threat for domestic pigs. By contrast, wild ruminants were not identified as a significant brucellosis reservoir for livestock.</p

A Possible Role for Metallic Ions in the Carbohydrate Cluster Recognition Displayed by a Lewis Y Specific Antibody

BACKGROUND:Lewis Y (Le(y)) is a blood group-related carbohydrate that is expressed at high surface densities on the majority of epithelial carcinomas and is a promising target for antibody-based immunotherapy. A humanized Le(y)-specific antibody (hu3S193) has shown encouraging safety, pharmacokinetic and tumor-targeting properties in recently completed Phase I clinical trials. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:We report the three-dimensional structures for both the free (unliganded) and bound (Le(y) tetrasaccharide) hu3S193 Fab from the same crystal grown in the presence of divalent zinc ions. There is no evidence of significant conformational changes occurring in either the Le(y) carbohydrate antigen or the hu3S193 binding site, which suggests a rigid fit binding mechanism. In the crystal, the hu3S193 Fab molecules are coordinated at their protein-protein interface by two zinc ions and in solution aggregation of Fab can be initiated by zinc, but not magnesium ions. Dynamic light scattering revealed that zinc ions could initiate a sharp transition from hu3S193 Fab monomers to large multimeric aggregates in solution. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:Zinc ions can mediate interactions between hu3S193 Fab in crystals and in solution. Whether metallic ion mediated aggregation of antibody occurs in vivo is not known, but the present results suggest that similar clustering mechanisms could occur when hu3S193 binds to Le(y) on cells, particularly given the high surface densities of antigen on the target tumor cells

A Simple Stochastic Model with Environmental Transmission Explains Multi-Year Periodicity in Outbreaks of Avian Flu

Avian influenza virus reveals persistent and recurrent outbreaks in North American wild waterfowl, and exhibits major outbreaks at 2–8 years intervals in duck populations. The standard susceptible-infected- recovered (SIR) framework, which includes seasonal migration and reproduction, but lacks environmental transmission, is unable to reproduce the multi-periodic patterns of avian influenza epidemics. In this paper, we argue that a fully stochastic theory based on environmental transmission provides a simple, plausible explanation for the phenomenon of multi-year periodic outbreaks of avian flu. Our theory predicts complex fluctuations with a dominant period of 2 to 8 years which essentially depends on the intensity of environmental transmission. A wavelet analysis of the observed data supports this prediction. Furthermore, using master equations and van Kampen system-size expansion techniques, we provide an analytical expression for the spectrum of stochastic fluctuations, revealing how the outbreak period varies with the environmental transmission

Assessment of splenic function

Hyposplenic patients are at risk of overwhelming post-splenectomy infection (OPSI), which carries mortality of up to 70%. Therefore, preventive measures are warranted. However, patients with diminished splenic function are difficult to identify. In this review we discuss immunological, haematological and scintigraphic parameters that can be used to measure splenic function. IgM memory B cells are a potential parameter for assessing splenic function; however, more studies are necessary for its validation. Detection of Howell–Jolly bodies does not reflect splenic function accurately, whereas determining the percentage of pitted erythrocytes is a well-evaluated method and seems a good first-line investigation for assessing splenic function. When assessing spleen function, 99mTc-labelled, heat-altered, autologous erythrocyte scintigraphy with multimodality single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT)-CT technology is the best approach, as all facets of splenic function are evaluated. In conclusion, although scintigraphic methods are most reliable, they are not suitable for screening large populations. We therefore recommend using the percentage of pitted erythrocytes, albeit suboptimal, as a first-line investigation and subsequently confirming abnormal readings by means of scintigraphy. More studies evaluating the value of potentially new markers are needed