Identification of coherent flood regions across Europe by using the longest streamflow records

This study compiles a new dataset, consisting of the longest available flow series from across Europe, and uses it to study the spatial and temporal clustering of flood events across the continent. Hydrological series at 102 gauging stations were collected from 25 European countries. Five geographically distinct large-scale homogeneous regions are identified: (i) an Atlantic region, (ii) a Continental region, (iii) a Scandinavian region, (iv) an Alpine region, and (v) a Mediterranean region. The months with a higher likelihood of flooding were identified in each region. The analysis of the clustering of annual counts of floods revealed an over-dispersion in the Atlantic and Continental regions, forming flood-rich and flood-poor periods, as well as an under-dispersion in the Scandinavian region that points to a regular pattern of flood occurrences at the inter-annual scale. The detection of trends in flood series is attempted by basing it on the identified regions, interpreting the results at a regional scale and for various time periods: 1900-1999; 1920-1999; 1939-1998 and 1956-1995. The results indicate that a decreasing trend in the magnitude of floods was observed mainly in the Continental region in the period 1920-1999 with 22% of the catchments revealing such a trend, as well as a decreasing trend in the timing of floods in the Alpine region in the period 1900-1999 with 75% of the catchments revealing this trend. A mixed pattern of changes in the frequency of floods over a threshold and few significant changes in the timing of floods were detected

Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods

Climate change has led to concerns about increasing river floods resulting from the greater water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere1. These concerns are reinforced by evidence of increasing economic losses associated with flooding in many parts of the world, including Europe2. Any changes in river floods would have lasting implications for the design of flood protection measures and flood risk zoning. However, existing studies have been unable to identify a consistent continental-scale climatic-change signal in flood discharge observations in Europe3, because of the limited spatial coverage and number of hydrometric stations. Here we demonstrate clear regional patterns of both increases and decreases in observed river flood discharges in the past five decades in Europe, which are manifestations of a changing climate. Our results\u2014arising from the most complete database of European flooding so far\u2014suggest that: increasing autumn and winter rainfall has resulted in increasing floods in northwestern Europe; decreasing precipitation and increasing evaporation have led to decreasing floods in medium and large catchments in southern Europe; and decreasing snow cover and snowmelt, resulting from warmer temperatures, have led to decreasing floods in eastern Europe. Regional flood discharge trends in Europe range from an increase of about 11 per cent per decade to a decrease of 23 per cent. Notwithstanding the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the observational record, the flood changes identified here are broadly consistent with climate model projections for the next century4,5, suggesting that climate-driven changes are already happening and supporting calls for the consideration of climate change in flood risk management

Review of applied-statistical methods for flood-frequency analysis in Europe

Flood frequency analysis is used for establishing a relationship between flood magnitude and frequency of occurrence (return period) and for estimating the design-flood at a given location of interest. The approach can be implemented locally (At-Site Flood Frequency Analysis, SFFA); or regionally (Regional Flood Frequency Analysis, RFFA), which is used to limit unreliable extrapolation when available data record lengths are short as compared to the recurrence interval of interest, or for predicting the flooding potential at locations where no observed data are available. Both SFFA and RFFA are mature disciplines and consolidated methodologies are available for many European regions. As a result, different European countries, and sometimes even different regions within a country, have adopted different methodologies, which are often selected on the basis of traditional approaches or restricted due to limitation of available data. The main objective of the COST Action ES0901 European procedure for flood frequency estimation (FloodFreq, http://www.cost-floodfreq.eu/), which started in 2010, is to undertake a pan-European comparison and evaluation of methods for flood frequency estimation under the various climatologic and geographic conditions found in Europe, and different levels of data availability, as required by European Flood Directive (2007/60/EC). In particular, Working Group 2 (WG2) is focusing on an assessment of statistical methods for flood frequency estimation. In the first phase of WG2, state-of-the-art methods were collected from all member countries of the WGs, and presented in a report form. In this report, the description of applied frequency analysis methods is presented. The report also include a catalogue of flood data availability/unavailability across Europe together with relevant information (e.g., catchment descriptors, climatological [see above] and hydrological characteristics, indications on frequency distribution recommended for use in flood frequency studies) are collected and presented. Finally, this report presents some preliminary outcomes of analyses that aim to identify in an L moment-based framework the most suitable parent distributions for representing the frequency regime of annual maximum flood across Europe

An empirical method for estimating future flood risks for flood warnings

International audienceSince medium and long-term precipitation forecasts are still not reliable enough, rough estimates of the degree of the extremity of forthcoming flood events that might occur in the course of dangerous meteorological situations approaching a basin could be useful to decision-makers as additional information for flood warnings. One approach to answering such a problem is to use real-time data on the soil moisture conditions in a catchment in conjunction with estimates of the extremity of the future rainfall and experience with the basin's behaviour during historical floods. A scenario-based method is proposed for such a future flood risk estimation, based on an a priori evaluation of the extremity of hypothetical floods generated by combinations of synthetic extreme precipitation and previously observed antecedent pre-flood basin saturations. The Hron river basin, located in central Slovakia, was chosen as the pilot basin in the case study. A time series of the basin's average daily precipitation was derived using spatial interpolation techniques. A lumped HBV-type daily conceptual rainfall-runoff model was adopted for modelling runoff. Analysis of the relationship of the modelled historical pre-flood soil moisture and flood causing-precipitation revealed the independence of both quantities for rainfall durations lasting 1 to 5 days. The basin's average annual maximum 1 to 5 day precipitation depths were analysed statistically and synthetic extreme precipitation scenarios associated with rainfall depths with return periods of 5, 20, 50 and 100 years, durations of 1 to 5 days and temporal distribution of extreme rainfall observed in the past were set up for runoff simulation. Using event-based flood simulations, synthetic flood waves were generated for random combinations of the rainfall scenarios and historical pre-flood soil moisture conditions. The effect of any antecedent basin saturation on the extremity of floods was quantified empirically and critical values of the basin saturation leading to floods with a higher return period than the return period of precipitation were identified. A method for implementing such critical values into flood risk warnings in a hydrological forecasting and warning system in the basin was suggested

Określenie parametrów modelu konceptualnego opad-odpływ dla małej zlewni w Karpatach

One of the most important tasks in hydrology is to simulate and forecast hydrologic processes and variables. To achieve this, various linear and nonlinear hydrologic models were developed. One of the most commonly applied rainfall-runoff models is the Nash’s model of the Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (IUH) (Nash, 1957) used jointly with the CN-NRCS method. Within this paper, the Nash’s model was applied to a small forested basin (Vištucký Creek, Slovakia) to reconstruct rainfall-runoff events based on the recorded precipitation. The Vištucký Creek catchment, located in the Little Carpathians, is a part of the flood protection management of regional sites in the Little Carpathians. Therefore, the object of this paper is, first, to determine the parameters of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model for the Vištucký creek catchment, second, to analyse how the selected characteristics of the model depend on the rainfall characteristics, and third, to compare obtained results with a similar study of Sikorska and Banasik (2010). The computer programme developed at the Dept. of Water Engineering (WULS-SGGW) was used to obtain the rainfall–runoff characteristics based on the Nash´s model. The derived characteristics were parameters of the Nash’s model (N, k, lag time) and rainfall-runoff characteristics (sum of total and effective precipitation, rainfall duration, runoff coefficient, time to IUH peak, value of IUH peak, goodness of fit). A relatively small effective precipitation from the rainfall events was derived. For the purpose of the analysis, a correlation between the lag time (and k parameter) and the sum of the total and effective precipitation was used. The use of the conceptual rainfall-runoff model (Nash´s model) for the small catchment in Carpathians was proved to give satisfactory results. The rainfall characteristics derived in this study are comparable to the results obtained by Spál et. al (2011), who used the same catchment in their analysis. Interestingly, our analysis indicated that there is a correlation between the rainfall duration and the lag time, what is opposite to the compared results of Sikorska and Banasik (2010).Jednym z ważniejszych zagadnień w hydrologii jest matematyczne symulowanie i prognozowanie procesów hydrologicznych, które musi być poprzedzone wyznaczeniem parametrów stosowanych modeli. Do matematycznego opisu procesów opad-odpływ w małych zlewniach opracowano szereg modeli liniowych i nieliniowych o różnym stopniu złożoności. Jednym z częściej stosowanych jest model liniowy, w którym opad efektywny wyznaczany jest wg metody CN (Curve Number), stosowanej w Służbie Ochrony Zasobów Naturalnych (Natural Rsources Conservation Service) Departamentu Rolnictwa USA, a do transformacji opadu efektywnego w odpływ bezpośredni wykorzystywany jest chwilowy hydrogram jednostkowy (IUH) wg Nasha. Model ten zastosowano do odtworzenia zdarzeń opad-odpływ w małej leśnej zlewni górskiej Vištucký Potok w Małych Karpatach w zachodniej Słowacji. Celem przeprowadzonych badań było, po pierwsze - wyznaczenie parametrów zastosowanego modelu, na podstawie dziewięciu zarejestrowanych zdarzeń opad-odpływ w okresie 2005-2010, po drugie - zanalizowanie zależności parametrów modelu od charakterystyk deszczu, i po trzecie - porównanie wartości charakterystyk zdarzeń opad-odpływ i parametrów modelu z wynikami podobnego opracowania podobnego opracowania wykonanego dla zurbanizowanej zlewni Potoku Służewieckiego w Warszawie (Sikorska i Banasik 2010). Do wyznaczenia charakterystyk na podstawie zarejestrowanych zdarzeń opad-odpływ, parametrów modelu oraz do wyznaczenia hydrogramu "regenerowanego" i określenia parametrów jego zgodności z hydrogramem obserwowanym, wykorzystano program komputerowy SN opracowany w Katedrze Inżynierii Wodnej SGGW. Uzyskano zbieżność wyników w odniesieniu do parametru CN (wartości średniej z analizowanych zdarzeń z wartością tablicową - ustaloną we wcześniejszych badaniach na podstawie rodzaju gleb i użytkowania terenu badanej zlewni) oraz stosunkowo małą zmienność czasu opóźnienia - Lag (iloczyny parametrów modelu Nasha: N i k). Stosunkowa mała wartość parametru CN i współczynnika odpływu wynika z leśnego użytkowania zlewni. Uzyskano bardzo słabe zależności pomiędzy parametrami modelu i charakterystykami opadu. Porównanie wyników analizy zdarzeń opadowych w obydwu zlewniach potwierdza znacznie zróżnicowanie parametru CN oraz wskazuje na małe różnice w czasie opóźnienia, determinowanego użytkowaniem, topografią i wielkością powierzchni zlewni

Bayesian MCMC approach to regional flood frequency analyses involving extraordinary flood events at ungauged sites

This paper proposes a method for using major flash flood events occurred at ungauged catchments to reduce the uncertainties in estimating regional flood quantiles. The approach is based on standard regionalization methods assuming that the flood peak distribution rescaled by a site-dependent index flood is uniform within a homogeneous region. A likelihood formulation and a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm are used to infer the parameter values of the regional distributions. This statistical inference technique has been selected for its rigorousness various hypotheses are explicitly formulated in the likelihood function, its flexibility as for the type of data that can be treated, and its ability to compute accurate estimates of the confidence intervals for the adjusted parameters and for the corresponding flood quantiles. The proposed method is applied to two data sets from Slovakia and the South of France that consist of series of annual peak discharges at gauged sites and estimated peak discharges of extreme flash flood events that have occurred at ungauged sites. The results suggest that the confidence intervals of the quantiles can be significantly narrowed down provided that the set of ungauged extremes is the result of a comprehensive sampling over the selected region. This remains valid, even if the uncertainties in the estimated ungauged extreme discharges are considered. The flood quantiles estimated by the proposed method are also consistent with the results of site specific flood frequency studies based on historic and paleoflood information

Seasonal characteristics of flood regimes across the Alpine-Carpathian range

SummaryThe aim of this paper is to analyse the differences in the long-term regimes of extreme precipitation and floods across the Alpine–Carpathian range using seasonality indices and atmospheric circulation patterns to understand the main flood-producing processes. This is supported by cluster analyses to identify areas of similar flood processes, both in terms of precipitation forcing and catchment processes. The results allow to isolate regions of similar flood generation processes including southerly versus westerly circulation patterns, effects of soil moisture seasonality due to evaporation and effects of soil moisture seasonality due to snow melt. In many regions of the Alpine–Carpathian range, there is a distinct shift in flood generating processes with flood magnitude as evidenced by a shift from summer to autumn floods. It is argued that the synoptic approach proposed here is valuable in both flood analysis and flood estimation