Detection and attribution methodologies overview (APPENDIX C)

In this appendix, we present a brief overview of the methodologies and methodological issues for detection and attribution of climate change. Attributing an observed change or an event partly to a causal factor (such as anthropogenic climate forcing) normally requires that the change first be detectable (Hegerl et al. 2010). A detectable observed change is one which is determined to be highly unlikely to occur (less than about a 10% chance) due to internal variability alone, without necessarily being ascribed to a causal factor. An attributable change refers to a change in which the relative contribution of causal factors has been evaluated along with an assignment of statistical confidence (e.g., Bindoff et al. 2013; Hegerl et al. 2010). As outlined in Bindoff et al. (2013), the conceptual framework for most detection and attribution studies consists of four elements: 1) relevant observations; 2) the estimated time history of relevant climate forcings (such as greenhouse gas concentrations or volcanic activity); 3) a modeled estimate of the impact of the climate forcings on the climate variables of interest; and 4) an estimate of the internal (unforced) variability of the climate variables of interest—that is, the changes that can occur due to natural unforced variations of the ocean, atmosphere, land, cryosphere, and other elements of the climate system in the absence of external forcings. The four elements above can be used together with a detection and attribution framework to assess possible causes of observed changes

Detection and attribution methodologies overview (APPENDIX C)

In this appendix, we present a brief overview of the methodologies and methodological issues for detection and attribution of climate change. Attributing an observed change or an event partly to a causal factor (such as anthropogenic climate forcing) normally requires that the change first be detectable (Hegerl et al. 2010). A detectable observed change is one which is determined to be highly unlikely to occur (less than about a 10% chance) due to internal variability alone, without necessarily being ascribed to a causal factor. An attributable change refers to a change in which the relative contribution of causal factors has been evaluated along with an assignment of statistical confidence (e.g., Bindoff et al. 2013; Hegerl et al. 2010). As outlined in Bindoff et al. (2013), the conceptual framework for most detection and attribution studies consists of four elements: 1) relevant observations; 2) the estimated time history of relevant climate forcings (such as greenhouse gas concentrations or volcanic activity); 3) a modeled estimate of the impact of the climate forcings on the climate variables of interest; and 4) an estimate of the internal (unforced) variability of the climate variables of interest—that is, the changes that can occur due to natural unforced variations of the ocean, atmosphere, land, cryosphere, and other elements of the climate system in the absence of external forcings. The four elements above can be used together with a detection and attribution framework to assess possible causes of observed changes

The Effect of an Electromagnetic Field on Early Emhryogenesis in Quail

Incubating quail embryos in a magnetic field resulted in accelerated somite growth. Twenty % of the experimental embryos in one series of experiments exhibited reversed torsion. The heterogenous magnetic field as opposed to the homogenous magnetic field was more effective in causing these effects. The theory of magnetic action on a biological system is discussed

Radiation-Hydrodynamics of Hot Jupiter Atmospheres

Radiative transfer in planetary atmospheres is usually treated in the static limit, i.e., neglecting atmospheric motions. We argue that hot Jupiter atmospheres, with possibly fast (sonic) wind speeds, may require a more strongly coupled treatment, formally in the regime of radiation-hydrodynamics. To lowest order in v/c, relativistic Doppler shifts distort line profiles along optical paths with finite wind velocity gradients. This leads to flow-dependent deviations in the effective emission and absorption properties of the atmospheric medium. Evaluating the overall impact of these distortions on the radiative structure of a dynamic atmosphere is non-trivial. We present transmissivity and systematic equivalent width excess calculations which suggest possibly important consequences for radiation transport in hot Jupiter atmospheres. If winds are fast and bulk Doppler shifts are indeed important for the global radiative balance, accurate modeling and reliable data interpretation for hot Jupiter atmospheres may prove challenging: it would involve anisotropic and dynamic radiative transfer in a coupled radiation-hydrodynamical flow. On the bright side, it would also imply that the emergent properties of hot Jupiter atmospheres are more direct tracers of their atmospheric flows than is the case for Solar System planets. Radiation-hydrodynamics may also influence radiative transfer in other classes of hot exoplanetary atmospheres with fast winds.Comment: 25 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ (minor revisions

Issue of False Amphetamine Field Test Positives Caused By Sugar. Use of Baeyer Test as a Secondary Test Solution.

The Marquis reagent is a well-established and widely used chemical presumptive test for 3,4-Methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) and methamphetamine. It is composed of concentrated sulfuric acid and 40% formaldehyde, which act upon alkaloids causing them to complex into larger molecules. This complexation causes a color change that can be visually interpreted as a positive or negative result. Almost any sugar molecule can be complexed in this way as well, due to their many OH groups. Experimentally it was found that the sugar molecules did complex with one another when the Marquis test was administered. The color produced by this reaction was brownish-red. Meaning it tested positive for amphetamine, but not methamphetamine specifically. Methamphetamine is expected to turn a light blue color, while other amphetamines are expected to turn brownish-red. A principal molecular difference between methamphetamine and common sugars is the presence of carbon-carbon double bonds. All amphetamine molecules contain three of these pi bonds, while common sugars such as sucrose, glucose, and fructose do not contain any pi bonds. The Baeyer test is a well-established organic chemistry test that is not currently used in forensic field tests. The test uses a 1% potassium permanganate solution and acetone to react with pi bonds. If pi bonds are present in the sample, an aqueous layer will appear in the violet solution. If not, the solution will be uniformly violet. This was supported as an effective method of differentiation as in our experimental tests the control samples of pseudoephedrine were consistently positive for the test. While the samples of common sugar consistently did not test positive. This implies that there is a consistent issue of sugar samples testing positive for amphetamines, and the Baeyer test could be used as an effective secondary field test to decrease the number of individuals falsely accused of possessing amphetamines

Quark Coulomb Interactions and the Mass Difference of Mirror Nuclei

We study the Okamoto-Nolen-Schiffer (ONS) anomaly in the binding energy of mirror nuclei at high density by adding a single neutron or proton to a quark gluon plasma. In this high-density limit we find an anomaly equal to two-thirds of the Coulomb exchange energy of a proton. This effect is dominated by quark electromagnetic interactions---rather than by the up-down quark mass difference. At normal density we calculate the Coulomb energy of neutron matter using a string-flip quark model. We find a nonzero Coulomb energy because of the neutron's charged constituents. This effect could make a significant contribution to the ONS anomaly.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figs. sub. to Phys. Rev. Let

Impact of Upper-Tropospheric Temperature Anomalies and Vertical Wind Shear on Tropical Cyclone Evolution Using an Idealized Version of the Operational GFDL Hurricane Model

The GFDL hurricane modeling system, initiated in the 1970s, has progressed from a research tool to an operational system over four decades. This system is still in use today in research and operations, and its evolution will be briefly described. This study used an idealized version of the 2014 GFDL model to test its sensitivity across a wide range of three environmental factors that are often identified as key factors in tropical cyclone (TC) evolution: SST, atmospheric stability (upper-air thermal anomalies), and vertical wind shear (westerly through easterly). A wide range of minimum central pressure intensities resulted (905–980 hPa). The results confirm that a scenario (e.g., global warming) in which the upper troposphere warms relative to the surface will have less TC intensification than one with a uniform warming with height. The TC rainfall is also investigated for the SST–stability parameter space. Rainfall increases for combinations of SST increase and increasing stability similar to global warming scenarios, consistent with climate change TC downscaling studies with the GFDL model. The forecast system’s sensitivity to vertical shear was also investigated. The idealized model simulations showed weak disturbances dissipating under strong easterly and westerly shear of 10 m s−1. A small bias for greater intensity under easterly sheared versus westerly sheared environments was found at lower values of SST. The impact of vertical shear on intensity was different when a strong vortex was used in the simulations. In this case, none of the initial disturbances weakened, and most intensified to some extent