Beyond master planning? New approaches to spatial planning in Ekurhuleni, South Africa

Traditional master planning has been criticised, but continues in various forms. This paper critically assesses an initiative by a South Africa metropolitan municipality to develop ‘local spatial developmen tframeworks’: comprehensive integrated plans dealing with 22 sectors, for some 103 areas, to guide land us edecisions and to provide a frame work for development. The paper concludes that despite some innovative aspects, several elements of traditional master planning were evident. New approaches to spatial planning were being shaped by older thinking, but also by the impact of a traditional land use management system.The findings point to the need for greater attention to debating alternative forms of spatial planning and their appro-priateness in various contexts.

How could everyone have been so wrong? Forecasting the Great Depression with the railroads

Contemporary observers viewed the recession that began in the summer of 1929 as nothing extraordinary. Recent analyses have shown that the subsequent large deflation was econometrically forecastable, implying that a driving force in the depression was the high expected real interest rates faced by business. Using a neglected data set of forecasts by railroad shippers, we find that business was surprised by the magnitude of the great depression. We show that an ARIMA or Holt- Winters model of railroad shipments would have produced much smaller forecast errors than those indicated by the surveys. The depth and duration of the depression was beyond the experience of business, which appears to have believed that recovery would happen quickly as in previous recessions. This failure to anticipate the collapse of the economy suggests roles for both high real rates of interest and a debt deflation in the propagation of the depression

Modelling the atomic structure of very high-density amorphous ice

The structure of very high-density amorphous (VHDA) ice has been modelled by positionally disordering three crystalline phases, namely ice IV, VI and XII. These phases were chosen because only they are stable or metastable in the region of the ice phase diagram where VHDA ice is formed, and their densities are comparable to that of VHDA ice. An excellent fit to the medium range of the experimentally observed pair-correlation function g(r) of VHDA ice was obtained by introducing disorder into the positions of the H2O molecules, as well as small amounts of molecular rotational disorder, disorder in the O--H bond lengths and disorder in the H--O--H bond angles. The low-k behaviour of the experimental structure factor, S(k), is also very well reproduced by this disordered-crystal model. The fraction of each phase present in the best-fit disordered model is very close to that observed in the probable crystallization products of VHDA ice. In particular, only negligible amounts of ice IV are predicted, in accordance with experimental observation.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, 1 table, v2: changes made in response to referees' comments, the justification for using certain ice phases is improved, and ice IV is now disordered as wel

Olfactory lures in predator control do not increase predation risk to birds in areas of conservation concern

Context. Lethal control of predators is often undertaken to protect species of conservation concern. Traps are frequently baited to increase capture efficacy, but baited traps can potentially increase predation risk by attracting predators to protected areas. This is especially important if targeted predators can escape capture due to low trap success. Snake traps using live mouse lures may be beneficial if traps effectively remove snakes in the presence of birds and do not attract additional snakes to the area. Aims. The present study evaluated whether mouse-lure traps in areas occupied by birds (simulated by deploying birdlure traps) could influence predation risk from an invasive snake on Guam. Methods. Snake traps were used, with Japanese quail (Coturnix japonica) as a proxy for predation risk, to assess if an adjacent trap with a mouse (Mus musculus) would attract brown treesnakes (Boiga irregularis) to a focal area and increase contact between an invasive snake and avian prey. Catch per unit effort (CPUE) at stations containing either a bird-lure trap, mouse-lure trap or pair of traps (i.e. one bird-lure and one mouse-lure trap) was evaluated. Key results. Bird-lure traps paired with mouse-lure traps did not differ in CPUE from isolated bird-lure traps. At paired stations, CPUE of snakes in mouse-lure traps was 2.3_higher than bird-lure traps, suggesting mouse lures were capable of drawing snakes away from avian prey. Bird-lure traps at paired stations experienced a decay in captures over time, whereas CPUE for isolated bird-lure traps increased after 9 weeks and exceeded mouse-lure traps after 7 weeks. Conclusions. Mouse lures did not increase the risk of snakes being captured in bird-lure traps. Instead, mouse-lure traps may have locally suppressed snakes, whereas stations without mouse-lure traps still had snakes in the focal area, putting avian prey at greater risk. However, snakes caught with bird lures tended to be larger and in better body condition, suggesting preference for avian prey over mammalian prey in larger snakes. Implications. Strategic placement of olfactory traps within areas of conservatio

Sperimagnetism in Fe(78)Er(5)B(17) and Fe(64)Er(19)B(17) metallic glasses: II. Collinear components and ferrimagnetic compensation

Magnetization measurements on an Fe(64)Er(19)B(17) glass and polarized-beam neutron scattering measurements on Fe(78)Er(5)B(17) and Fe(64)Er(19)B(17) were described in part I. The finite spin-flip neutron scattering cross sections were calculated using a sperimagnetic structure based on random cone arrangements of the magnetic moments. The temperature variation of the cross sections of Fe(64)Er(19)B(17) suggested that a compensated sperimagnetic phase existed at T(comp). The analysis of the non-spin-flip neutron scattering cross sections is described here in part II. Two spin-dependent total structure factors S(+/-+/-). (Q) were defined from these cross sections and, despite the limited range of the data 0.5 angstrom(-1) , are zero on both sublattices in the compensated sperimagnetic structure at T(comp). The pre-peak in the spin-dependent total structure factors at 112 K showed that it originated in the atomic structure and it may involve Fe-Er-Fe 'collineations' at a radial distance of approximate to 6.0 angstrom. Finally, the RDF(+/-+/-) (r) of Fe(64)Er(19)B(17) at 180 K and of Fe(78)Er(5)B(17) at 2 K show that both glasses have the (mu(Fe) UP:mu(Er) DOWN) structure like the (Fe, Tb)(83)B(17) collinear ferrimagnets

Crystal structures and proton dynamics in potassium and cesium hydrogen bistrifluoroacetate salts with strong symmetric hydrogen bonds

The crystal structures of potassium and cesium bistrifluoroacetates were determined at room temperature and at 20 K and 14 K, respectively, with the single crystal neutron diffraction technique. The crystals belong to the I2/a and A2/a monoclinic space groups, respectively, and there is no visible phase transition. For both crystals, the trifluoroacetate entities form dimers linked by very short hydrogen bonds lying across a centre of inversion. Any proton disorder or double minimum potential can be rejected. The inelastic neutron scattering spectral profiles in the OH stretching region between 500 and 1000 cm^{-1} previously published [Fillaux and Tomkinson, Chem. Phys. 158 (1991) 113] are reanalyzed. The best fitting potential has the major characteristics already reported for potassium hydrogen maleate [Fillaux et al. Chem. Phys. 244 (1999) 387]. It is composed of a narrow well containing the ground state and a shallow upper part corresponding to dissociation of the hydrogen bond.Comment: 31 pages, 7 figure

Assessment of deep cryogenic heat-treatment impact on the microstructure and surface chemistry of austenitic stainless steel

This systematic study deals with the influence of deep cryogenic treatment (DCT) on microstructure and surface properties of austenitic stainless steel AISI 304 L on different length scales and in the surface region. The study incorporates different analysis techniques, such as light microscopy, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD), high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and time-of-flight secondary ions mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS). DCT modifies the microstructure of treated samples through promoted precipitation of Cr7C3 carbides, induced twinning and α-martensite formation. Additionally, XPS/AR-XPS and ToF-SIMS results also provide evidence of modified oxidation dynamics of DCT samples compared to conventionally heat-treated samples with increase of the Fe-oxide fraction and lower Cr-oxide fraction in the surface oxide layer. An evaluation of oxidation states and ions distribution within the surface layer of deep cryogenically heat-treated stainless steel AISI 304 L is conducted with XPS/ToF-SIMS. These results are correlated with the microstructural changes and nitrogen diffusivity induced by DCT, which are associated with modified oxidation behaviour of AISI 304 L. These results provide further understanding of DCT dynamic on the overall microstructure and the corresponding surface behaviour

A Sonic Net reduces damage to sunflower by blackbirds (Icteridae): Implications for broad-scale agriculture and crop establishment

Blackbirds, such as red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus), are notorious agricultural pests and damage crops at multiple stages of growth. Our aim was to test a novel deterrent, the use of sound designed to mask communication among birds (termed a “Sonic Net”), to deter blackbirds (Icteridae) from target areas of maturing sunflower crops. The Sonic Net masks communication of a target species by delivering “pink noise” that overlaps with the frequencies that the species uses for acoustic communication. If birds cannot hear predators or conspecific warning calls their perceived predation risk increases, and they relocate to an area with lower predation risk. Working with local sunflower producers in North Dakota, USA we set up experimental sites in three sunflower fields that were actively used by mixed-species blackbird flocks. In each field, we established two 0.2 ha plots and measured the initial area of damage for 63 individually-marked sunflowers. We applied the Sonic Net treatment to one of the paired plots in each field. At the end of the 20-day treatment period, we measured the total area damaged on the individually-marked sunflowers from each plot to calculate the change in damage for each sunflower. In all three fields, Sonic Net treatments substantially reduced percent damage to sunflowers, by 28.6% (95% CI: 12.5–41.7%), 63.6% (57.2–69.0%) and 22.6% (16.6–28.1%) for fields in Burleigh, McIntosh, and Emmons, respectively. In addition, sunflowers with a higher initial area of available seed experienced higher damage. We predict that the effect of the Sonic Net treatment may be greater in other crop phases and types, such as in the establishment phase or ground cover crops. During crop establishment there is a relative lack of tall, three-dimensional vegetational structure, which would allow for more effective spread of the Sonic Net sound and offer fewer physical refugia for birds to lower their perceived predation risk. We suggest both larger scale agricultural tests of the Sonic Net and efficacy tests for protecting crops at early growth stages to further explore the usefulness of this technology for crop protection

Constructive updating/downdating of oblique projectors: a generalization of the Gram-Schmidt process

A generalization of the Gram-Schmidt procedure is achieved by providing equations for updating and downdating oblique projectors. The work is motivated by the problem of adaptive signal representation outside the orthogonal basis setting. The proposed techniques are shown to be relevant to the problem of discriminating signals produced by different phenomena when the order of the signal model needs to be adjusted.Comment: As it will appear in Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical (2007