Missing sea level rise in southeastern Greenland during and since the Little Ice Age

The Greenland Ice Sheet has been losing mass at an accelerating rate over the past 2 decades. Understanding ice mass and glacier changes during the preceding several hundred years prior to geodetic measurements is more difficult because evidence of past ice extent in many places was later overridden. Salt marshes provide the only continuous records of relative sea level (RSL) from close to the Greenland Ice Sheet that span the period of time during and since the Little Ice Age (LIA) and can be used to reconstruct ice mass gain and loss over recent centuries. Salt marsh sediments collected at the mouth of Dronning Marie Dal, close to the Greenland Ice Sheet margin in southeastern Greenland, record RSL changes over the past ca. 300 years through changing sediment and diatom stratigraphy. These RSL changes record a combination of processes that are dominated by local and regional changes in Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance during this critical period that spans the maximum of the LIA and 20th-century warming. In the early part of the record (1725–1762 CE) the rate of RSL rise is higher than reconstructed from the closest isolation basin at Timmiarmiut, but between 1762 and 1880 CE the RSL rate is within the error range of the rate of RSL change recorded in the isolation basin. RSL begins to slowly fall around 1880 CE, with a total amount of RSL fall of 0.09±0.1 m in the last 140 years. Modelled RSL, which takes into account contributions from post-LIA Greenland Ice Sheet glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA), ongoing deglacial GIA, the global non-ice sheet glacial melt fingerprint, contributions from thermosteric effects, the Antarctic mass loss sea level fingerprint and terrestrial water storage, overpredicts the amount of RSL fall since the end of the LIA by at least 0.5 m. The GIA signal caused by post-LIA Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss is by far the largest contributor to this modelled RSL, and error in its calculation has a large impact on RSL predictions at Dronning Marie Dal. We cannot reconcile the modelled RSL and the salt marsh observations, even when moving the termination of the LIA to 1700 CE and reducing the post-LIA Greenland mass loss signal by 30 %, and a “budget residual” of  mm yr−1 since the end of the LIA remains unexplained. This new RSL record backs up other studies that suggest that there are significant regional differences in the timing and magnitude of the response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to the climate shift from the LIA into the 20th century

Action spectroscopy of chlorophyll and other coordination complexes

Action spectroscopy provides key insights into the nature of electronic transitions of coordination complexes such as porhyrin-containing biochromophores like chlorophyll or transition metal complexes such as tris(bipyridine)ruthenium

Geometry and transport in a model of two coupled quadratic nonlinear waveguides

This paper applies geometric methods developed to understand chaos and transport in Hamiltonian systems to the study of power distribution in nonlinear waveguide arrays. The specific case of two linearly coupled X(2) waveguides is modeled and analyzed in terms of transport and geometry in the phase space. This gives us a transport problem in the phase space resulting from the coupling of the two Hamiltonian systems for each waveguide. In particular, the effect of the presence of partial and complete barriers in the phase space on the transfer of intensity between the waveguides is studied, given a specific input and range of material properties. We show how these barriers break down as the coupling between the waveguides is increased and what the role of resonances in the phase space has in this. We also show how an increase in the coupling can lead to chaos and global transport and what effect this has on the intensity

Seasonality of halogen deposition in polar snow and ice

Abstract. The atmospheric chemistry of iodine and bromine in Polar regions is of interest due to the key role of halogens in many atmospheric processes, particularly tropospheric ozone destruction. Bromine is emitted from the open ocean but is enriched above first-year sea ice during springtime bromine explosion events, whereas iodine emission is attributed to biological communities in the open ocean and hosted by sea ice. It has been previously demonstrated that bromine and iodine are present in Antarctic ice over glacial–interglacial cycles. Here we investigate seasonal variability of bromine and iodine in polar snow and ice, to evaluate their emission, transport and deposition in Antarctica and the Arctic and better understand potential links to sea ice. We find that bromine and iodine concentrations and Br enrichment (relative to sea salt content) in polar ice do vary seasonally in Arctic snow and Antarctic ice. Although seasonal variability in halogen emission sources is recorded by satellite-based observations of tropospheric halogen concentrations, seasonal patterns observed in snowpack are likely also influenced by photolysis-driven processes. Peaks of bromine concentration and Br enrichment in Arctic snow and Antarctic ice occur in spring and summer, when sunlight is present. A secondary bromine peak, observed at the end of summer, is attributed to bromine deposition at the end of the polar day. Iodine concentrations are largest in winter Antarctic ice strata, contrary to contemporary observations of summer maxima in iodine emissions. These findings support previous observations of iodine peaks in winter snow strata attributed to the absence of sunlight-driven photolytic re-mobilisation of iodine from surface snow. Further investigation is required to confirm these proposed mechanisms explaining observations of halogens in polar snow and ice, and to evaluate the extent to which halogens may be applied as sea ice proxies

Developing a forecasting model for cholera incidence in Dhaka megacity through time series climate data

Cholera, an acute diarrheal disease spread by lack of hygiene and contaminated water, is a major public health risk in many countries. As cholera is triggered by environmental conditions influenced by climatic variables, establishing a correlation between cholera incidence and climatic variables would provide an opportunity to develop a cholera forecasting model. Considering the auto-regressive nature and the seasonal behavioral patterns of cholera, a seasonal-auto-regressive-integrated-moving-average (SARIMA) model was used for time-series analysis during 2000–2013. As both rainfall (r = 0.43) and maximum temperature (r = 0.56) have the strongest influence on the occurrence of cholera incidence, single-variable (SVMs) and multi-variable SARIMA models (MVMs) were developed, compared and tested for evaluating their relationship with cholera incidence. A low relationship was found with relative humidity (r = 0.28), ENSO (r = 0.21) and SOI (r = −0.23). Using SVM for a 1 °C increase in maximum temperature at one-month lead time showed a 7% increase of cholera incidence (p \u3c 0.001). However, MVM (AIC = 15, BIC = 36) showed better performance than SVM (AIC = 21, BIC = 39). An MVM using rainfall and monthly mean daily maximum temperature with a one-month lead time showed a better fit (RMSE = 14.7, MAE = 11) than the MVM with no lead time (RMSE = 16.2, MAE = 13.2) in forecasting. This result will assist in predicting cholera risks and better preparedness for public health management in the future

Review article: The need for more efficient and patient-oriented drug development pathways in NASH—setting the scene for platform trials

Drug development; Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis; Study designsDesenvolupament de fàrmacs; Esteatohepatitis no alcohòlica; Dissenys d'estudiDesarrollo de fármacos; Esteatohepatitis no alcohólica; Diseños de estudioBackground and Aims Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) constitutes a significant unmet medical need with a burgeoning field of clinical research and drug development. Platform trials (PT) might help accelerate drug development while lowering overall costs and creating a more patient-centric environment. This review provides a comprehensive and nuanced assessment of the NASH clinical development landscape. Methods Narrative review and expert opinion with insight gained during the EU Patient-cEntric clinicAl tRial pLatforms (EU-PEARL) project. Results Although NASH represents an opportunity to use adaptive trial designs, including master protocols for PT, there are barriers that might be encountered owing to distinct and sometimes opposing priorities held by these stakeholders and potential ways to overcome them. The following aspects are critical for the feasibility of a future PT in NASH: readiness of the drug pipeline, mainly from large drug companies, while there is not yet an FDA/EMA-approved treatment; the most suitable design (trial Phase and type of population, e.g., Phase 2b for non-cirrhotic NASH patients); the operational requirements such as the scope of the clinical network, the use of concurrent versus non-concurrent control arms, or the re-allocation of participants upon trial adaptations; the methodological appraisal (i.e. Bayesian vs. frequentist approach); patients' needs and patient-centred outcomes; main regulatory considerations and the funding and sustainability scenarios. Conclusions PT represent a promising avenue in NASH but there are a number of conundrums that need addressing. It is likely that before a global NASH PT becomes a reality, ‘proof-of-platform’ at a smaller scale needs to be provided.JMP reports having received consulting fees from Boehringer-Ingelheim, MSD and Novo Nordisk. He has received speaking fees from Gilead, Intercept, and Novo Nordisk, and travel expenses from Gilead, Rubió, Pfizer, Astellas, MSD, CUBICIN, and Novo Nordisk. He has received educational and research support from Madrigal, Gilead, Pfizer, Astellas, Accelerate, Novartis, Abbvie, ViiV, and MSD. Funds from European Commission/EFPIA IMI2 853966-2, IMI2 777377, H2020 847989, and ISCIII PI19/01898. NAdP works for Janssen. QMA is Coordinator of the EU IMI-2 LITMUS consortium, which is funded by the EU Horizon 2020 programme and EFPIA. This multistakeholder consortium includes industry partners. He reports research Grant Funding: Allergan/Tobira, AstraZeneca, Boehringer-Ingelheim, Glaxo SmithKline, Glympse Bio, Intercept, Novartis Pharma AG, Pfizer Ltd. Consultancy: 89Bio, Abbvie/Allergan, Akero, Altimentiv, Altimmune, AstraZeneca, Axcella, Blade, BMS, BNN Cardio, Boehringer-Ingelheim, Cirius, CymaBay, EcoR1, E3Bio, Eli Lilly & Company Ltd., Galmed, Genentech, Genfit SA, Gilead, Grunthal, HistoIndex, Indalo, Intercept Pharma Europe Ltd., Inventiva, IQVIA, Janssen, Johnson & Johnson, Madrigal, MedImmune, Medpace, Merck, Metacrine, NGMBio, North Sea Therapeutics, Novartis, Novo Nordisk A/S, PathAI, Pfizer Ltd., Poxel, ProSciento, Raptor Pharma, Roche, Servier, Shionogi, Terns, The Medicines Company, Viking Therapeutics. Speaker: Abbott Laboratories, Allergan/Tobira, BMS, Clinical Care Options, Falk, Fishawack, Genfit SA, Gilead, Integritas Communications, Kenes, Medscape. Royalties: Elsevier Ltd. PM works for Novartis. MSK is an employee of and a shareholder in Novo Nordisk A/S. JG has received consulting fees from Boehringer-Ingelheim, speaking fees from Echosens and travel expenses from Gilead and Abbie. Funds from ISCIII PI18/00947 and PI21/00691. JRE has received speaking fees from Gilead. FT lab’ work has been supported by the German Research Foundation (DFG, CRC/TR 362) and research grants from Gilead, Allergan, Bristol-Myers Squibb and Inventiva. VR consults for and Intercept, Novo Nordisk, Galmed, Poxel, NGM, Madrigal, Enyo, Sagimet, 89 Bio, Prosciento, Terns, and Theratechnologies, and received grants from Intercept and Gilead

The clinical utility of FDG PET/CT among solid organ transplant recipients suspected of malignancy or infection

PURPOSE: Solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients are at high risk of developing infections and malignancies. (18)F-FDG PET/CT may enable timely detection of these diseases and help to ensure early intervention. We aimed to describe the clinical utility of FDG PET/CT in consecutive, diagnostic unresolved SOT recipients transplanted from January 2004 to May 2015. METHODS: Recipients with a post-transplant FDG PET/CT performed as part of diagnostic work-up were included. Detailed chart reviews were done to extract relevant clinical information and determine the final diagnosis related to the FDG PET/CT. Based on á priori defined criteria and the final diagnosis, results from each scan were classified as true or false, and diagnostic values determined. RESULTS: Among the 1,814 recipients in the cohort, 145 had an FDG PET/CT performed; 122 under the indication of diagnostically unresolved symptoms with a suspicion of malignancy or infection. The remaining (N = 23) had an FDG PET/CT to follow-up on a known disease or to stage a known malignancy. The 122 recipients underwent a total of 133 FDG PET/CT scans performed for a suspected malignancy (66 %) or an infection (34 %). Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of the FDG PET/CT in diagnosing these conditions were 97, 84, 87, and 96 %, respectively. CONCLUSION: FDG PET/CT is an accurate diagnostic tool for the work-up of diagnostic unresolved SOT recipients suspected of malignancy or infection. The high sensitivity and NPV underlines the potential usefulness of PET/CT for excluding malignancy or focal infections in this often complex clinical situation. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00259-016-3564-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users