Quadratic ideals and Rogers–Ramanujan recursions

We give an explicit recursive description of the Hilbert series and Gröbner bases for the family of quadratic ideals defining the jet schemes of a double point. We relate these recursions to the Rogers–Ramanujan identity and prove a conjecture of the second author, Oblomkov and Rasmussen

Competitive portfolio selection using stochastic predictions

We study a portfolio selection problem where a player attempts to maximise a utility function that represents the growth rate of wealth. We show that, given some stochastic predictions of the asset prices in the next time step, a sublinear expected regret is attainable against an optimal greedy algorithm, subject to tradeoff against the \accuracy" of such predictions that learn (or improve) over time. We also study the effects of introducing transaction costs into the model

Agricultural land use disrupts biodiversity mediation of virus infections in wild plant populations

Human alteration of natural habitats may change the processes governing species interactions in wild communities. Wild populations are increasingly impacted by agricultural intensification, yet it is unknown whether this alters biodiversity mediation of disease dynamics. We investigated the association between plant diversity (species richness, diversity) and infection risk (virus richness, prevalence) in populations of Plantago lanceolata in natural landscapes as well as those occurring at the edges of cultivated fields. Altogether, 27 P. lanceolata populations were surveyed for population characteristics and sampled for PCR detection of five recently characterized viruses. We find that plant species richness and diversity correlated negatively with virus infection prevalence. Virus species richness declined with increasing plant diversity and richness in natural populations while in agricultural edge populations species richness was moderately higher, and not associated with plant richness. This difference was not explained by changes in host richness between these two habitats, suggesting potential pathogen spill‐over and increased transmission of viruses across the agro‐ecological interface. Host population connectivity significantly decreased virus infection prevalence. We conclude that human use of landscapes may change the ecological laws by which natural communities are formed with far reaching implications for ecosystem functioning and disease

‘‘Generality of mis-fit’’? The real-life difficulty of matching scales in an interconnected world

A clear understanding of processes at multiple scales and levels is of special significance when conceiving strategies for human–environment interactions. However, understanding and application of the scale concept often differ between administrative-political and ecological disciplines. These mirror major differences in potential solutions whether and how scales can, at all, be made congruent. As a result, opportunities of seeking ‘‘goodness-of-fit’’ between different concepts of governance should perhaps be reconsidered in the light of a potential ‘‘generality of mis-fit.’’ This article reviews the interdisciplinary considerations inherent in the concept of scale in its ecological, as well as administrative-political, significance and argues that issues of how to manage ‘‘misfit’’ should be awarded more emphasis in social-ecological research and management practices. These considerations are exemplified by the case of reindeer husbandry in Fennoscandia. Whilst an indigenous small-scale practice, reindeer husbandry involves multi-level ecological and administrative-political complexities—complexities thatwe argue may arise in any multi-level system.</div

Experience of a Preventive Experiment : Spatial Social Mixing in Post-World War II Housing Estates in Helsinki, Finland

The contingent of large housing estates built in the 1960s and 1970s accounts for almost a half of all high-rises in Finland. The primary ideology in their genesis was to combine industrially prefabricated urban housing development with the surrounding forest landscape—together with a policy of spatial social mixing—to prevent social disorder and segregation. These policies seemed to work as intended until the early 1990s, but have since proved to be insufficient. With Western integration and new information and communication-based economic growth, new trends of population differentiation have emerged. As new wealth has moved out to the fringes of cities, the large housing estates have declined socio-economically—and have been enriched ethnically. This differentiation is structurally produced, works through the regional housing market and, as such, is beyond the scope of the preventive policies pursued. Recent attempts at controlling the regional markets and new forms of spatial social mixing have so far proved difficult.The contingent of large housing estates built in the 1960s and 1970s accounts for almost a half of all high-rises in Finland. The primary ideology in their genesis was to combine industrially prefabricated urban housing development with the surrounding forest landscape—together with a policy of spatial social mixing—to prevent social disorder and segregation. These policies seemed to work as intended until the early 1990s, but have since proved to be insufficient. With Western integration and new information and communication-based economic growth, new trends of population differentiation have emerged. As new wealth has moved out to the fringes of cities, the large housing estates have declined socio-economically—and have been enriched ethnically. This differentiation is structurally produced, works through the regional housing market and, as such, is beyond the scope of the preventive policies pursued. Recent attempts at controlling the regional markets and new forms of spatial social mixing have so far proved difficult.Peer reviewe

Whole-genome sequencing reveals host factors underlying critical COVID-19

Critical COVID-19 is caused by immune-mediated inflammatory lung injury. Host genetic variation influences the development of illness requiring critical care(1) or hospitalization(2-4) after infection with SARS-CoV-2. The GenOMICC (Genetics of Mortality in Critical Care) study enables the comparison of genomes from individuals who are critically ill with those of population controls to find underlying disease mechanisms. Here we use whole-genome sequencing in 7,491 critically ill individuals compared with 48,400 controls to discover and replicate 23 independent variants that significantly predispose to critical COVID-19. We identify 16 new independent associations, including variants within genes that are involved in interferon signalling (IL10RB and PLSCR1), leucocyte differentiation (BCL11A) and blood-type antigen secretor status (FUT2). Using transcriptome-wide association and colocalization to infer the effect of gene expression on disease severity, we find evidence that implicates multiple genes-including reduced expression of a membrane flippase (ATP11A), and increased expression of a mucin (MUC1)-in critical disease. Mendelian randomization provides evidence in support of causal roles for myeloid cell adhesion molecules (SELE, ICAM5 and CD209) and the coagulation factor F8, all of which are potentially druggable targets. Our results are broadly consistent with a multi-component model of COVID-19 pathophysiology, in which at least two distinct mechanisms can predispose to life-threatening disease: failure to control viral replication; or an enhanced tendency towards pulmonary inflammation and intravascular coagulation. We show that comparison between cases of critical illness and population controls is highly efficient for the detection of therapeutically relevant mechanisms of disease.Peer reviewe

Aggregation by exponential weighting, sharp PAC-Bayesian bounds and sparsity

We study the problem of aggregation under the squared loss in the model of regression with deterministic design. We obtain sharp PAC-Bayesian risk bounds for aggregates defined via exponential weights, under general assumptions on the distribution of errors and on the functions to aggregate. We then apply these results to derive sparsity oracle inequalities

Self-Reported Functional Status as Predictor of Observed Functional Capacity in Subjects with Early Osteoarthritis of the Hip and Knee: A Diagnostic Study in the CHECK Cohort

Objectives Patients with hip or knee osteoarthritis (OA) may experience functional limitations in work settings. In the Cohort Hip and Cohort Knee study (CHECK) physical function was both self-reported and measured performance-based, using Functional Capacity Evaluation (FCE). Relations between self-reported scores on SF-36 and WOMAC (Western Ontario and McMaster Arthritis Index, function scales) and FCE performance were studied, and their diagnostic value for clinicians in predicting observed physical work limitations was assessed. Methods Ninety-two subjects scored physical function on SF-36 (scale 0–100, 100 indicating the best health level) and WOMAC (scale 0–68, 68 indicates maximum restriction) and performed the FCE. Correlations were calculated between all scores. Cross-tables were constructed using both questionnaires as diagnostic tests to identify work limitations. Subjects lifting <22.5 kg on the FCE-test ‘lifting-low’ were labeled as having physical work limitations. Diagnostic aspects at different cut-off scores for both questionnaires were analysed. Results Statistically significant correlations (Spearman’s ρ 0.34–0.49) were found between questionnaire scores and lifting and carrying tests. Results of a diagnostic cross-table with cut-off point <60 on SF-36 ‘physical functioning’ were: sensitivity 0.34, specificity 0.97 and positive predictive value (PV+) 0.95. Cut-off point ≥21 on WOMAC ‘function’ resulted in sensitivity 0.51, specificity 0.88 and PV+ 0.88. Conclusion Low self-reported function scores on SF-36 and WOMAC diagnosed subjects with limitations on the FCE. However, high scores did not guarantee performance without physical work limitations. These results are specific to the tested persons with early OA, in populations with a different prevalence of limitations, different diagnostic values will be found. FCE may be indicated to help clinicians to assess actual work capacity