Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this recordClimate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’.The authors acknowledge support from the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs in the preparation of the International Dimensions Assessment of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. W.N.A. acknowledges support from High-end Climate Impacts and Extremes project of the EU. S.S. would like to acknowledge the financial support of Ireland’s Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) under the EPA Research Programme 2014–2020, of the UK Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) through the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, and of the Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment through the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment

Workshop by VEMCO

19–22 May 2022 Kyoto, Japa

The owl spreads its wings: global and international education within the local from critical perspectives

Within an era of a New Knowledge Society, assumptions abound regarding the ‘goodness' and justice of global interconnections and distributions of knowledge through international educational organizations and structures worldwide. Just as George Bush Jr. in attempting to justify the invasion of Iraq made claim to the democratic goodness of the US ‘spreading their freedoms' in the interests of an all-encompassing democratization of the world, so the assumption that sharing educational knowledge, especially an ‘all-knowing North' with a ‘helpless South' is without question for the greater good of all humanity

Emergence of heat extremes attributable to anthropogenic influences

Climate scientists have demonstrated that a substantial fraction of the probability of numerous recent extreme events may be attributed to human-induced climate change. However, it is likely that for temperature extremes occurring over previous decades a fraction of their probability was attributable to anthropogenic influences. We identify the first record-breaking warm summers and years for which a discernible contribution can be attributed to human influence. We find a significant human contribution to the probability of record-breaking global temperature events as early as the 1930s. Since then, all the last 16 record-breaking hot years globally had an anthropogenic contribution to their probability of occurrence. Aerosol-induced cooling delays the timing of a significant human contribution to record-breaking events in some regions. Without human-induced climate change recent hot summers and years would be very unlikely to have occurred.111411Ysciescopu

Scattering of Giant Holes

We study scalar excitations of high spin operators in N=4 super Yang-Mills theory, which are dual to solitons propagating on a long folded string in AdS_3 x S^1. In the spin chain description of the gauge theory, these are associated to holes in the magnon distribution in the sl(2,R) sector. We compute the all-loop hole S-matrix from the asymptotic Bethe ansatz, and expand in leading orders at weak and strong coupling. The worldsheet S-matrix of solitonic excitations on the GKP string is calculated using semiclassical quantization. We find an exact agreement between the gauge theory and string theory results.Comment: 13 pages. v2: minor corrections, references adde

Nitrogen forms affect root structure and water uptake in the hybrid poplar

The study analyses the effects of two different forms of nitrogen fertilisation (nitrate and ammonium) on root structure and water uptake of two hybrid poplar (Populus maximowiczii x P. balsamifera) clones in a field experiment. Water uptake was studied using sap flow gauges on individual proximal roots and coarse root structure was examined by excavating 18 whole-root systems. Finer roots were scanned and analyzed for architecture. Nitrogen forms did not affect coarse-root system development, but had a significant effect on fine-root development. Nitrate-treated trees presented higher fine:coarse root ratios and higher specific root lengths than control or ammonium treated trees. These allocation differences affected the water uptake capacity of the plants as reflected by the higher sapflow rate in the nitrate treatment. The diameter of proximal roots at the tree base predicted well the total root biomass and length. The diameter of smaller lateral roots also predicted the lateral root mass, length, surface area and the number of tips. The effect of nitrogen fertilisation on the fine root structure translated into an effect on the functioning of the fine roots forming a link between form (architecture) and function (water uptake)

A Semantic Graph-Based Approach for Radicalisation Detection on Social Media

From its start, the so-called Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL/ISIS) has been successfully exploiting social media networks, most notoriously Twitter, to promote its propaganda and recruit new members, resulting in thousands of social media users adopting a pro-ISIS stance every year. Automatic identification of pro-ISIS users on social media has, thus, become the centre of interest for various governmental and research organisations. In this paper we propose a semantic graph-based approach for radicalisation detection on Twitter. Unlike previous works, which mainly rely on the lexical representation of the content published by Twitter users, our approach extracts and makes use of the underlying semantics of words exhibited by these users to identify their pro/anti-ISIS stances. Our results show that classifiers trained from semantic features outperform those trained from lexical, sentiment, topic and network features by 7.8% on average F1-measure

Dynein structure and power stroke

Dynein ATPases are microtubule motors that are critical to diverse processes such as vesicle transport and the beating of sperm tails; however, their mechanism of force generation is unknown. Each dynein comprises a head, from which a stalk and a stem emerge. Here we use electron microscopy and image processing to reveal new structural details of dynein c, an isoform from Chlamydomonas reinhardtii flagella, at the start and end of its power stroke. Both stem and stalk are flexible, and the stem connects to the head by means of a linker approximately 10 nm long that we propose lies across the head. With both ADP and vanadate bound, the stem and stalk emerge from the head 10 nm apart. However, without nucleotide they emerge much closer together owing to a change in linker orientation, and the coiled-coil stalk becomes stiffer. The net result is a shortening of the molecule coupled to an approximately 15-nm displacement of the tip of the stalk. These changes indicate a mechanism for the dynein power stroke

Molecular and electronic structure of terminal and alkali metal-capped uranium(V) nitride complexes

Determining the electronic structure of actinide complexes is intrinsically challenging because inter-electronic repulsion, crystal field, and spin–orbit coupling effects can be of similar magnitude. Moreover, such efforts have been hampered by the lack of structurally analogous families of complexes to study. Here we report an improved method to U≡N triple bonds, and assemble a family of uranium(V) nitrides. Along with an isoelectronic oxo, we quantify the electronic structure of this 5f1 family by magnetometry, optical and electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopies and modelling. Thus, we define the relative importance of the spin–orbit and crystal field interactions, and explain the experimentally observed different ground states. We find optical absorption linewidths give a potential tool to identify spin–orbit coupled states, and show measurement of UV···UV super-exchange coupling in dimers by EPR. We show that observed slow magnetic relaxation occurs via two-phonon processes, with no obvious correlation to the crystal field

The Role of Auditory Features Within Slot-Themed Social Casino Games and Online Slot Machine Games

Over the last few years playing social casino games has become a popular entertainment activity. Social casino games are offered via social media platforms and mobile apps and resemble gambling activities. However, social casino games are not classified as gambling as they can be played for free, outcomes may not be determined by chance, and players receive no monetary payouts. Social casino games appear to be somewhat similar to online gambling activities in terms of their visual and auditory features, but to date little research has investigated the cross over between these games. This study examines the auditory features of slot-themed social casino games and online slot machine games using a case study design. An example of each game type was played on three separate occasions during which, the auditory features (i.e., music, speech, sound effects, and the absence of sound) within the games were logged. The online slot-themed game was played in demo mode. This is the first study to provide a qualitative account of the role of auditory features within a slot-themed social casino game and an online slot machine game. Our results found many similarities between how sound is utilised within the two games. Therefore the sounds within these games may serve functions including: setting the scene for gaming, creating an image, demarcating space, interacting with visual features, prompting players to act, communicating achievements to players, providing reinforcement, heightening player emotions and the gaming experience. As a result this may reduce the ability of players to make a clear distinction between these two activities, which may facilitate migration between game