Chapter 7 - Energy systems

Stabilizing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations will require large-scale transformations in human societies, from the way that we produce and consume energy to how we use the land surface. A natural question in this context is what will be the .transformation pathway. towards stabilization; that is, how do we get from here to there? The topic of this chapter is transformation pathways. The chapter is primarily motivated by three questions. First, what are the near-term and future choices that define transformation pathways, including the goal itself, the emissions pathway to the goal, technologies used for and sectors contributing to mitigation, the nature of international coordination, and mitigation policies? Second, what are the key characteristics of different transformation pathways, including the rates of emissions reductions and deployment of low-carbon energy, the magnitude and timing of aggregate economic costs, and the implications for other policy objectives such as those generally associated with sustainable development? Third, how will actions taken today influence the options that might be available in the future? As part of the assessment in this chapter, data from over 1000 new scenarios published since the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) were collected from integrated modelling research groups, many from large-scale model intercomparison studies. In comparison to AR4, new scenarios, both in this AR5 dataset and more broadly in the literature assessed in this chapter, consider more ambitious concentration goals, a wider range of assumptions about technology, and more possibilities for delays in additional global mitigation beyond that of today and fragmented international action

The failed liberalisation of Algeria and the international context: a legacy of stable authoritarianism

The paper attempts to challenge the somewhat marginal role of international factors in the study of transitions to democracy. Theoretical and practical difficulties in proving causal mechanisms between international variables and domestic outcomes can be overcome by defining the international dimension in terms of Western dominance of world politics and by identifying Western actions towards democratising countries. The paper focuses on the case of Algeria, where international factors are key in explaining the initial process of democratisation and its following demise. In particular, the paper argues that direct Western policies, the pressures of the international system and external shocks influence the internal distribution of power and resources, which underpins the different strategies of all domestic actors. The paper concludes that analysis based purely on domestic factors cannot explain the process of democratisation and that international variables must be taken into more serious account and much more detailed

Energy Systems (Chapter 6)

Warming cannot be limited to well below 2°C without rapid and deep reductions in energy system carbon dioxide (CO2) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In scenarios limiting warming to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot (2°C (>67%) with action starting in 2020), net energy system CO2 emissions (interquartile range) fall by 87–97% (60–79%) in 2050. In 2030, in scenarios limiting warming to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot, net CO2 and GHG emissions fall by 35–51% and 38–52% respectively. In scenarios limiting warming to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot (2°C (>67%)), net electricity sector CO2 emissions reach zero globally between 2045 and 2055 (2050 and 2080). (high confidence)

A review of trends and drivers of greenhouse gas emissions by sector from 1990 to 2018

Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can be traced to five economic sectors: energy, industry, buildings, transport and AFOLU (agriculture, forestry and other land uses). In this topical review, we synthesise the literature to explain recent trends in global and regional emissions in each of these sectors. To contextualise our review, we present estimates of GHG emissions trends by sector from 1990 to 2018, describing the major sources of emissions growth, stability and decline across ten global regions. Overall, the literature and data emphasise that progress towards reducing GHG emissions has been limited. The prominent global pattern is a continuation of underlying drivers with few signs of emerging limits to demand, nor of a deep shift towards the delivery of low and zero carbon services across sectors. We observe a moderate decarbonisation of energy systems in Europe and North America, driven by fuel switching and the increasing penetration of renewables. By contrast, in rapidly industrialising regions, fossil-based energy systems have continuously expanded, only very recently slowing down in their growth. Strong demand for materials, floor area, energy services and travel have driven emissions growth in the industry, buildings and transport sectors, particularly in Eastern Asia, Southern Asia and South-East Asia. An expansion of agriculture into carbon-dense tropical forest areas has driven recent increases in AFOLU emissions in Latin America, South-East Asia and Africa. Identifying, understanding, and tackling the most persistent and climate-damaging trends across sectors is a fundamental concern for research and policy as humanity treads deeper into the Anthropocene

Toilet training: what can the cookstove sector learn from improved sanitation promotion?

Within the domain of public health, commonalities exist between the sanitation and cookstove sectors. Despite these commonalities and the grounds established for cross-learning between both sectors, however, there has not been much evidence of knowledge exchange across them to date. Our paper frames this as a missed opportunity for the cookstove sector, given the capacity for user-centred innovation and multi-scale approaches demonstrated in the sanitation sector. The paper highlights points of convergence and divergence in the approaches used in both sectors, with particular focus on behaviour change approaches that go beyond the level of the individual. The analysis highlights the importance of the enabling environment, community-focused approaches and locally-specific contextual factors in promoting behavioural change in the sanitation sector. Our paper makes a case for the application of such approaches to cookstove interventions, especially in light of their ability to drive sustained change by matching demand-side motivations with supply-side opportunities

Mitigation of greenhouse gases by adoption of improved biomass cookstoves

Air quality, Biomass stoves, Emissions, Hilly terrain, Pot size, Thermal efficiency,