Describing the longitudinal course of major depression using Markov models: Data integration across three national surveys

BACKGROUND: Most epidemiological studies of major depression report period prevalence estimates. These are of limited utility in characterizing the longitudinal epidemiology of this condition. Markov models provide a methodological framework for increasing the utility of epidemiological data. Markov models relating incidence and recovery to major depression prevalence have been described in a series of prior papers. In this paper, the models are extended to describe the longitudinal course of the disorder. METHODS: Data from three national surveys conducted by the Canadian national statistical agency (Statistics Canada) were used in this analysis. These data were integrated using a Markov model. Incidence, recurrence and recovery were represented as weekly transition probabilities. Model parameters were calibrated to the survey estimates. RESULTS: The population was divided into three categories: low, moderate and high recurrence groups. The size of each category was approximated using lifetime data from a study using the WHO Mental Health Composite International Diagnostic Interview (WMH-CIDI). Consistent with previous work, transition probabilities reflecting recovery were high in the initial weeks of the episodes, and declined by a fixed proportion with each passing week. CONCLUSION: Markov models provide a framework for integrating psychiatric epidemiological data. Previous studies have illustrated the utility of Markov models for decomposing prevalence into its various determinants: incidence, recovery and mortality. This study extends the Markov approach by distinguishing several recurrence categories

Accumulation of major depressive episodes over time in a prospective study indicates that retrospectively assessed lifetime prevalence estimates are too low

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Most epidemiologic studies concerned with Major Depressive Disorder have employed cross-sectional study designs. Assessment of lifetime prevalence in such studies depends on recall of past depressive episodes. Such studies may underestimate lifetime prevalence because of incomplete recall of past episodes (recall bias). An opportunity to evaluate this issue arises with a prospective Canadian study called the National Population Health Survey (NPHS).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The NPHS is a longitudinal study that has followed a community sample representative of household residents since 1994. Follow-up interviews have been completed every two years and have incorporated the Composite International Diagnostic Interview short form for major depression. Data are currently available for seven such interview cycles spanning the time frame 1994 to 2006. In this study, cumulative prevalence was calculated by determining the proportion of respondents who had one or more major depressive episodes during this follow-up interval.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The annual prevalence of MDD ranged between 4% and 5% of the population during each assessment, consistent with existing literature. However, 19.7% of the population had at least one major depressive episode during follow-up. This included 24.2% of women and 14.2% of men. These estimates are nearly twice as high as the lifetime prevalence of major depressive episodes reported by cross-sectional studies during same time interval.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In this study, prospectively observed cumulative prevalence over a relatively brief interval of time exceeded lifetime prevalence estimates by a considerable extent. This supports the idea that lifetime prevalence estimates are vulnerable to recall bias and that existing estimates are too low for this reason.</p

Simulation studies of age-specific lifetime major depression prevalence

BACKGROUND: The lifetime prevalence (LTP) of Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) is the proportion of a population having met criteria for MDD during their life up to the time of assessment. Expectation holds that LTP should increase with age, but this has not usually been observed. Instead, LTP typically increases in the teenage years and twenties, stabilizes in adulthood and then begins to decline in middle age. Proposed explanations for this pattern include: a cohort effect (increasing incidence in more recent birth cohorts), recall failure and/or differential mortality. Declining age-specific incidence may also play a role. METHODS: We used a simulation model to explore patterns of incidence, recall and mortality in relation to the observed pattern of LTP. Lifetime prevalence estimates from the 2002 Canadian Community Health Survey, Mental Health and Wellbeing (CCHS 1.2) were used for model validation and calibration. RESULTS: Incidence rates predicting realistic values for LTP in the 15-24 year age group (where mortality is unlikely to substantially influence prevalence) lead to excessive LTP later in life, given reasonable assumptions about mortality and recall failure. This suggests that (in the absence of cohort effects) incidence rates decline with age. Differential mortality may make a contribution to the prevalence pattern, but only in older age categories. Cohort effects can explain the observed pattern, but only if recent birth cohorts have a much higher (approximately 10-fold greater) risk and if incidence has increased with successive birth cohorts over the past 60-70 years. CONCLUSIONS: The pattern of lifetime prevalence observed in cross-sectional epidemiologic studies seems most plausibly explained by incidence that declines with age and where some respondents fail to recall past episodes. A cohort effect is not a necessary interpretation of the observed pattern of age-specific lifetime prevalence

The effect of major depression on participation in preventive health care activities

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The objective of this study was to determine whether major depressive episodes (MDE) contribute to a lower rate of participation in three prevention activities: blood pressure checks, mammograms and Pap tests.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The data source for this study was the Canadian National Population Health Survey (NPHS), a longitudinal study that started in 1994 and has subsequently re-interviewed its participants every two years. The NPHS included a short form version of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI-SF) to assess past year MDE and also collected data on participation in preventive activities. Initially, we examined whether respondents with MDE in a particular year were less likely to participate in screening during that same year. In order to assess whether MDE negatively altered the pattern of participation, those successfully screened at the baseline interview in 1994 were identified and divided into cohorts depending on their MDE status. Proportional hazard models were used to quantify the effect of MDE on subsequent participation in screening.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>No effect of MDE on participation in the three preventive activities was identified either in the cross-sectional or longitudinal analysis. Adjustment for a set of relevant covariates did not alter this result.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Whereas MDE might be expected to reduce the frequency of participation in screening activities, no evidence for this was found in the current analysis. Since people with MDE may contact the health system more frequently, this may offset any tendency of the illness itself to reduce participation in screening.</p

Cross-national epidemiology of DSM-IV major depressive episode

Background: Major depression is one of the leading causes of disability worldwide, yet epidemiologic data are not available for many countries, particularly low- to middle-income countries. In this paper, we present data on the prevalence, impairment and demographic correlates of depression from 18 high and low-to middle-income countries in the World Mental Health Survey Initiative. Methods: Major depressive episodes (MDE) as defined by the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fourth edition (DMS-IV) were evaluated in face-to-face interviews using the World Health Organization Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). Data from 18 countries were analyzed in this report (n = 89,037). All countries surveyed representative, population-based samples of adults. Results: The average lifetime and 12-month prevalence estimates of DSM-IV MDE were 14.6% and 5.5% in the ten high-income and 11.1% and 5.9% in the eight low- to middle-income countries. The average age of onset ascertained retrospectively was 25.7 in the high-income and 24.0 in low- to middle-income countries. Functional impairment was associated with recency of MDE. The female: male ratio was about 2: 1. In high-income countries, younger age was associated with higher 12-month prevalence; by contrast, in several low-to middle-income countries, older age was associated with greater likelihood of MDE. The strongest demographic correlate in high-income countries was being separated from a partner, and in low- to middle-income countries, was being divorced or widowed. Conclusions: MDE is a significant public-health concern across all regions of the world and is strongly linked to social conditions. Future research is needed to investigate the combination of demographic risk factors that are most strongly associated with MDE in the specific countries included in the WMH.(NIH/NIMH) United States National Institute of Mental Health[R01MH070884]John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur FoundationPfizer FoundationUSA Public Health Service[R13-MH066849]USA Public Health Service[R01-MH069864]USA Public Health Service[R01 DA016558](NIH) Fogarty International Center[FIRCA R03-TW006481]PAHO Pan American Health OrganizationEli Lilly & Company FoundationOrtho-McNeil Pharmaceutical, Inc.GlaxoSmithKlineSanofi-AventisBristol-Myers SquibbState of Brazil Research Foundation (FAPESP)[03/00204-3]Ministry of Social ProtectionEuropean Commission[QLG5-1999-01042]European Commission[SANCO 2004123]Piedmont Region (Italy)Fondo de Investigacion Sanitaria, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Spain[FIS 00/0028]Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnologia[SAF 2000-158-CE]Departament de Salut, Generalitat de Catalunya, SpainInstituto de Salud Carlos III[CIBER CB06/02/0046]Instituto de Salud Carlos III[RETICS RD06/0011 REM-TAP]Government of IndiaWHOMinistry of HealthIsrael National Institute for Health Policy and Health Services ResearchNational Insurance Institute of IsraelJapan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare[H13-Shogai-023]Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare[H14-Tokubetsu-026]Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare[H16-Kokoro-013]Lebanese Ministry of Public HealthWHO (Lebanon)(NIH) Fogarty International, anonymous private donations to IDRAAC, LebanonJanssen CilagEli LillyRocheNovartisNational Institute of Psychiatry Ramon de la Fuente[INPRFMDIES 4280]CNPq National Council on Science and Technology[CONACyT-G30544-H]PanAmerican Health Organization (PAHO)New Zealand Ministry of Health, Alcohol Advisory CouncilHealth Research Council(NIH/NIMH) USA National Institute of Mental Health[R01-MH059575](NIH/NIMH) USA National Institute of Mental Health[RO1-MH61905]National Institute of Drug AbuseSouth African Department of HealthUniversity of MichiganNational Institute of Mental Health (NIH/NIMH)[U01-MH60220]National Institute of Drug Abuse (NIDA)Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA)Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (RWJF)[044708]John W. Alden TrustsAnalysis Group Inc.Eli Lilly CompanyEPI-QJohnson & Johnson PharmaceuticalsOrtho-McNeil Janssen Scientific AffairsPfizer Inc.Shire USA, Inc

Trajectories of maternal symptoms of anxiety and depression. A 13-year longitudinal study of a population-based sample

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There is a lack of population-based studies of developmental trajectories following mothers throughout the whole child-rearing phase and there are few longitudinal studies focusing on both symptoms of depression and anxiety. The aim of the current study is to identify latent trajectory groups based on counts of symptoms of anxiety and depression among mothers throughout the child-rearing phase and the relations of the latent groups to maternal socio-demographic variables.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data is from a prospective, longitudinal study of nearly 1000 families in Norway followed from when the index children were 18 months until they were 14.5 years old (the TOPP study). The study used latent profile analysis (LPA) to identify latent groups of mothers with distinct trajectories across time of symptom counts. Latent group differences on socio-demographic variables were tested with one-way ANOVAs, chi-square tests and exact tests.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Six trajectories based on maternal scores from six waves of data collection of symptoms of anxiety and depression were identified; a 'No symptoms' group with mothers without symptoms; a 'Low' group with mothers reporting low symptom levels; a 'Moderate-low' group with mothers reporting moderately low symptom levels; a 'Moderate' group with mothers with moderate symptoms; a 'High-chronic' group with mothers with overall high symptom levels; and a 'Low-rising' group with mothers starting with a low symptom level that increased over time. The mothers in the High-chronic symptom group differed from the other mothers on several socio-demographic variables. They were significantly younger than the mothers in the Low group comprising the oldest mothers. The mothers in the High-chronic group had significantly lower education, were less likely to have paid work and were less likely to be living with a partner than the mothers in the other groups.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The study shows socio-demographic differences between mothers classified into six trajectory groups based on symptoms of anxiety and depression covering 13 years of the child-rearing period. Specific socio-demographic risk factors characterised mothers in the High-chronic symptom group. Identifying subgroups with enduring problems might inform more targeted preventive efforts.</p

Emission of Volatile Organic Compounds After Herbivory from Trifolium pratense (L.) Under Laboratory and Field Conditions

Plants emit a wide range of volatile organic compounds in response to damage by herbivores, and many of the compounds have been shown to attract the natural enemies of insect herbivores or serve for inter- and intra-plant communication. Most studies have focused on volatile emission in the laboratory while little is known about emission patterns in the field. We studied the emission of volatiles by Trifolium pratense (red clover) under both laboratory and field conditions. The emission of 24 compounds was quantified in the laboratory, of which eight showed increased emission rates after herbivory by Spodoptera littoralis caterpillars, including (E)-β-ocimene, the most abundant compound, (Z)-β-ocimene, linalool, (E)-β-caryophyllene, (E,E)-α-farnesene, 4,8-dimethyl-1,3,7-nonatriene (DMNT), 1-octen-3-ol, and methyl salicylate (MeSA). While most of these compounds have been reported as herbivore-induced volatiles from a wide range of plant taxa, 1-octen-3-ol seems to be a characteristic volatile of legumes. In the field, T. pratense plants with varying herbivore damage growing in established grassland communities emitted only 13 detectable compounds, and the correlation between herbivore damage and volatile release was more variable than in the laboratory. For example, the emission of (E)-β-ocimene, (Z)-β-ocimene, and DMNT actually declined with damage, while decanal exhibited increased emission with increasing herbivory. Elevated light and temperature increased the emission of many compounds, but the differences in light and temperature conditions between the laboratory and the field could not account for the differences in emission profiles. Our results indicate that the release of volatiles from T. pratense plants in the field is likely to be influenced by additional biotic and abiotic factors not measured in this study. The elucidation of these factors may be important in understanding the physiological and ecological functions of volatiles in plants

Impact of a mobile phone and web program on symptom and functional outcomes for people with mild-to-moderate depression, anxiety and stress: a randomised controlled trial.

Background Mobile phone-based psychological interventions enable real time self-monitoring and self-management, and large-scale dissemination. However, few studies have focused on mild-to-moderate symptoms where public health need is greatest, and none have targeted work and social functioning. This study reports outcomes of a CONSORT-compliant randomised controlled trial (RCT) to evaluate the efficacy of myCompass, a self-guided psychological treatment delivered via mobile phone and computer, designed to reduce mild-to-moderate depression, anxiety and stress, and improve work and social functioning. Method Community-based volunteers with mild-to-moderate depression, anxiety and/or stress (N= 720) were randomly assigned to the myCompass program, an attention control intervention, or to a waitlist condition for seven weeks. The interventions were fully automated, without any human input or guidance. Participants’ symptoms and functioning were assessed at baseline, post-intervention and 3-month follow-up, using the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scale and the Work and Social Adjustment Scale. Results Retention rates at post-intervention and follow-up for the study sample were 72.1% (n= 449) and 48.6% (n= 350) respectively. The myCompass group showed significantly greater improvement in symptoms of depression, anxiety and stress and in work and social functioning relative to both control conditions at the end of the 7-week intervention phase (between-group effect sizes ranged from d= .22 to d= .55 based on the observed means). Symptom scores remained at near normal levels at 3-month follow-up. Participants in the attention control condition showed gradual symptom improvement during the post-intervention phase and their scores did not differ from the myCompass group at 3-month follow-up. Conclusions The myCompass program is an effective public health program, facilitating rapid improvements in symptoms and in work and social functioning for individuals with mild-to-moderate mental health problems