Latent class analysis variable selection

We propose a method for selecting variables in latent class analysis, which is the most common model-based clustering method for discrete data. The method assesses a variable's usefulness for clustering by comparing two models, given the clustering variables already selected. In one model the variable contributes information about cluster allocation beyond that contained in the already selected variables, and in the other model it does not. A headlong search algorithm is used to explore the model space and select clustering variables. In simulated datasets we found that the method selected the correct clustering variables, and also led to improvements in classification performance and in accuracy of the choice of the number of classes. In two real datasets, our method discovered the same group structure with fewer variables. In a dataset from the International HapMap Project consisting of 639 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 210 members of different groups, our method discovered the same group structure with a much smaller number of SNP

Vision-Guided Robot Hearing

International audienceNatural human-robot interaction (HRI) in complex and unpredictable environments is important with many potential applicatons. While vision-based HRI has been thoroughly investigated, robot hearing and audio-based HRI are emerging research topics in robotics. In typical real-world scenarios, humans are at some distance from the robot and hence the sensory (microphone) data are strongly impaired by background noise, reverberations and competing auditory sources. In this context, the detection and localization of speakers plays a key role that enables several tasks, such as improving the signal-to-noise ratio for speech recognition, speaker recognition, speaker tracking, etc. In this paper we address the problem of how to detect and localize people that are both seen and heard. We introduce a hybrid deterministic/probabilistic model. The deterministic component allows us to map 3D visual data onto an 1D auditory space. The probabilistic component of the model enables the visual features to guide the grouping of the auditory features in order to form audiovisual (AV) objects. The proposed model and the associated algorithms are implemented in real-time (17 FPS) using a stereoscopic camera pair and two microphones embedded into the head of the humanoid robot NAO. We perform experiments with (i)~synthetic data, (ii)~publicly available data gathered with an audiovisual robotic head, and (iii)~data acquired using the NAO robot. The results validate the approach and are an encouragement to investigate how vision and hearing could be further combined for robust HRI

Developmental trajectories of externalizing behaviors in childhood and adolescence [IF: 3.3]

This article describes the average and group-based developmental trajectories of aggression, opposition, property violations, and status violations using parent reports of externalizing behaviors on a longitudinal multiple birth cohort study of 2,076 children aged 4 to 18 years. Trajectories were estimated from multilevel growth curve analyses and semiparametric mixture models. Overall, males showed higher levels of externalizing behavior than did females. Aggression, opposition, and property violations decreased on average, whereas status violations increased over time. Group-based trajectories followed the shape of the average curves at different levels and were similar for males and females. The trajectories found in this study provide a basis against which deviations from the expected developmental course can be identified and classified as deviant or nondeviant

Eficiência na provisão de educação pública municipal: uma análise em três estágios dos municípios brasileiros

O artigo busca analisar as características municipais que afetam a eficiência dos municípios brasileiros na gestão educacional, consequência do processo de descentralização educacional na década de 90. As informações foram extraídas da Prova Brasil, Censo Escolar, Finbra e STN para 2005. Empregamos um procedimento em três estágios, cujo primeiro consiste no uso de modelos SBM (slacks based measure) no cálculo da eficiência no uso de insumos discricionários. Em seguida, controlamos pelos insumos não discricionários, resultando em um novo índice de eficiência. Finalmente, aplicamos as misturas finitas para analisar a heterogeneidade existente entre os diversos municípios em relação aos níveis de eficiência da gestão municipal. Os resultados mostram a não uniformidade de impactos demográficos, políticos e de recursos sobre a eficiência da gestão educacional entre os diversos grupos de municípios brasileiros. O aumento de democracia e recursos como o decorrente do Fundef, em geral, aumenta a eficiência da administração escolar municipal

Some Aspects of Latent Structure Analysis

Latent structure models involve real, potentially observable variables and latent, unobservable variables. The framework includes various particular types of model, such as factor analysis, latent class analysis, latent trait analysis, latent profile models, mixtures of factor analysers, state-space models and others. The simplest scenario, of a single discrete latent variable, includes finite mixture models, hidden Markov chain models and hidden Markov random field models. The paper gives a brief tutorial of the application of maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches to the estimation of parameters within these models, emphasising especially the fact that computational complexity varies greatly among the different scenarios. In the case of a single discrete latent variable, the issue of assessing its cardinality is discussed. Techniques such as the EM algorithm, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and variational approximations are mentioned

Statistical modelling of wildfire size and intensity: a step toward meteorological forecasting of summer extreme fire risk

International audienceIn this article we investigate the use of statistical methods for wildfire risk assessment in the Mediterranean Basin using three meteorological covariates, the 2 m temperature anomaly, the 10 m wind speed and the January– June rainfall occurrence anomaly. We focus on two remotely sensed characteristic fire variables, the burnt area (BA) and the fire radiative power (FRP), which are good proxies for fire size and intensity respectively. Using the fire data we determine an adequate parametric distribution function which fits best the logarithm of BA and FRP. We reconstruct the conditional density function of both variables with respect to the chosen meteorological covariates. These conditional density functions for the size and intensity of a single event give information on fire risk and can be used for the estimation of conditional probabilities of exceeding certain thresholds. By analysing these probabilities we find two fire risk regimes different from each other at the 90 % confidence level: a " background " summer fire risk regime and an " extreme " additional fire risk regime, which corresponds to higher probability of occurrence of larger fire size or intensity associated with specific weather conditions. Such a statistical approach may be the ground for a future fire risk alert system