Deconstructing Indian cotton: weather, yields, and suicides

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Integrated Pest Management for Sustainable Intensification of Agriculture in Asia and Africa

Integrated Pest Management (IPM) is a leading complement and alternative to synthetic pesticides and a form of sustainable intensification with particular importance for tropical smallholders. Global pesticide use has grown over the past 20 years to 3.5 billion kg/year, amounting to a global market worth $45 billion. The external costs of pesticides are$4-$19 (€3-15) per kg of active ingredient applied, suggesting that IPM approaches that result in lower pesticide use will benefit, not only farmers, but also wider environments and human health. Evidence for IPM’s impacts on pesticide use and yields remains patchy. We contribute an evaluation using data from 85 IPM projects from 24 countries of Asia and Africa implemented over the past twenty years. Analysing outcomes on productivity and reliance on pesticides, we find a mean yield increase across projects and crops of 40.9% (SD 72.3), combined with a decline in pesticide use to 30.7% (SD 34.9) compared with baseline. A total of 35 of 115 (30%) crop combinations resulted in a transition to zero pesticide use. We assess successes in four types of IPM projects, and find that at least 50% of pesticide use is not needed in most agroecosystems. Nonetheless, policy support for IPM is relatively rare, counter-interventions from pesticide industry common, and the IPM challenge never done as pests, diseases and weeds evolve and move

Shaping agricultural innovation systems responsive to food insecurity and climate change

Climate change and variability present new challenges for agriculture, particularly for smallholder farmers who continue to be the mainstay of food production in developing countries. Recent global food crises have exposed the structural vulnerability of globalized agri-food systems, highlighting climate change as just one of a complex set of environmental, demographic, social and economic drivers generating instability and food insecurity, the impacts of which disproportionately affect poorer groups in marginal environments. Rather than search for single causes, there is a need to understand these changes at a systemic level. Improved understanding of and engagement with the adaptive strategies and innovations of communities living in conditions of rapid change provides an appropriate starting point for those seeking to shape agricultural innovation systems responsive to food insecurity and climate change. This paper draws lessons from selected country experiences of adaptation and innovation in pursuit of food security goals. It reviews three cases of systems of innovation operating in contrasting regional, socio-economic and agro-ecological contexts, in terms of four features of innovation systems more likely to build, sustain or enhance food security in situations of rapid change: (i) recognition of the multifunctionality of agriculture and opportunities to realize multiple benefits; (ii) access to diversity as the basis for flexibility and resilience; (iii) concern for enhancing capacity of decision makers at all levels; and (iv) continuity of effort aimed at securing the well-being of those who depend on agriculture. Finally, implications for policymakers and other stakeholders in agricultural innovation systems are presented

Bio-economics of Indian hybrid Bt cotton and farmer suicides

Background: The implementation of hybrid Bt cotton unique to India has been heralded as a grand success by government agencies, seed companies and other proponents, and yet yields have stagnated at low levels and production costs have risen 2.5–3-fold. The low-yield hybrid cotton system of India contributes thousands of farmer suicides to the annual national toll. Conceptual and methodological barriers have hindered bioeconomic analysis of the ecological and social sustainability of such cross-scale agro-ecological problems in time and geographic space, under global technology and climate change. As a paradigm shift, we use conceptually simple, parameter-sparse, theoretically based, mechanistic, weather-driven physiologically based demographic models (PBDMs) to deconstruct the bio-economics of the Indian cotton system. Results: Our analysis of Indian hybrid cotton system explains some extant ecological and economic problems, and suggests a viable solution. Specifically, the model accurately captured the age-stage mass dynamics of rainfed and irrigated cotton growth/development and the interactions with the key pest pink bollworm across five south-central Indian states, and enabled identification of proximate bioeconomic factors responsible for low yield and their relationship to farmer suicides. The results are reinforced by analysis of Ministry of Agriculture annual state-level data. We explain why short-season, high-density non-GM cotton is a highly viable solution for Indian cotton farmers in rainfed and irrigated cotton areas of the five states, and possibly nationally. The transition from a theoretical bioeconomic construct to a real-world regional bioeconomic analysis proved seamless. Conclusions: The hybrid long-season Bt technology for rainfed and irrigated cotton is unique to India, and is a value capture mechanism. This technology is suboptimal leading to stagnant yields, high input costs, increased insecticide use, and low farmer incomes that increase economic distress that is a proximate cause of cotton farmer suicides. The current GM Bt technology adds costs in rainfed cotton without commensurate increases in yield. Non-GM pure-line high-density short-season varieties could double rainfed cotton yield, reduce costs, decrease insecticide use, and help ameliorate suicides. The GM hybrid technology is inappropriate for incorporation in short-season high-density varieties