Using a genetic algorithm to optimize a data-limited catch rule

Many data-limited fish stocks worldwide require management advice. Simple empirical management procedures have been used to manage data-limited fisheries but do not necessarily ensure compliance with maximum sustainable yield objectives and precautionary principles. Genetic algorithms are efficient optimization procedures for which the objectives are formalized as a fitness function. This optimization can be included when testing management procedures in a management strategy evaluation. This study explored the application of a genetic algorithm to an empirical catch rule and found that this approach could substantially improve the performance of the catch rule. The optimized parameterization and the magnitude of the improvement were dependent on the specific stock, stock status, and definition of the fitness function. The genetic algorithm proved to be an efficient and automated method for tuning the catch rule and removed the need for manual intervention during the optimization process. Therefore, we conclude that the approach could also be applied to other management procedures, case-specific tuning, and even data-rich stocks. Finally, we recommend the phasing out of the current generic ICES “2 over 3” advice rule in favour of case-specific catch rules of the form tested here, although we caution that neither works well for fast-growing stocks

Exploring a relative harvest rate strategy for moderately data-limited fisheries management

Moderately data-limited fisheries can be managed with simple empirical management procedures without analytical stock assessments. Often, control rules adjust advised catches by the trend of an abundance index. We explored an alternative approach where a relative harvest rate, defined by the catch relative to a biomass index, is used and the target level derived from analysing historical catch length data. This harvest rate rule was tested generically with management strategy evaluation. A genetic algorithm was deployed as an optimisation procedure to tune the parameters of the control rule to meet maximum sustainable yield and precautionary management objectives. Results indicated that this method could outperform trend-based strategies, particularly when optimised, achieving higher long-term yields while remaining precautionary. However, optimum harvest rate levels can be narrow and challenging to find because they depend on historical exploitation and life history characteristics. Misspecification of target levels can have a detrimental impact on management. Nevertheless, harvest rates appear to be a suitable management option for moderately data-limited resources, and their application has modest data requirements. Harvest rate strategies are especially suitable for stocks for which case-specific analyses can be conducted

Risk equivalence in data-limited and data-rich fisheries management: An example based on the ICES advice framework

Fisheries management needs to ensure that resources are exploited sustainably, and the risk of depletion is at an acceptable level. However, often uncertainty about resource dynamics exists, and data availability may differ substantially between fish stocks. This situation can be addressed through tiered systems, where tiers represent different data limitations, and tier-specific stock assessment methods are defined, aiming for risk equivalence across tiers. As case studies, we selected stocks of European plaice, Atlantic cod and Atlantic herring, where advice is provided by the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES). We conducted a closed-loop simulation to compare risk equivalence between the data-rich ICES MSY rule, based on a quantitative stock assessment, and the revised data-limited empirical management procedures of the ICES advice framework. The simulations indicated that the data-limited approaches were precautionary and did not lead to a higher risk of depletion than the data-rich approach. Although the catch based on generic data-limited approaches was lower, stock-specific optimisation improved management performance with catch levels comparable with the data-rich approach. Furthermore, the simulation indicated the ICES MSY rule can fail to meet management objectives due to increased depletion risk when management reference points are set suboptimally. We conclude that the recent revisions of the ICES system explicitly account for risk equivalence for data-limited fisheries management and are a major step forward. Finally, we advocate further consideration of simple empirical management procedures irrespective of data limitations due to their ability to meet fisheries management objectives with greater simplicity

Edible crabs “Go West”: migrations and incubation cycle of Cancer pagurus revealed by electronic tags

Crustaceans are key components of marine ecosystems which, like other exploited marine taxa, show seasonable patterns of distribution and activity, with consequences for their availability to capture by targeted fisheries. Despite concerns over the sustainability of crab fisheries worldwide, difficulties in observing crabs’ behaviour over their annual cycles, and the timings and durations of reproduction, remain poorly understood. From the release of 128 mature female edible crabs tagged with electronic data storage tags (DSTs), we demonstrate predominantly westward migration in the English Channel. Eastern Channel crabs migrated further than western Channel crabs, while crabs released outside the Channel showed little or no migration. Individual migrations were punctuated by a 7-month hiatus, when crabs remained stationary, coincident with the main period of crab spawning and egg incubation. Incubation commenced earlier in the west, from late October onwards, and brooding locations, determined using tidal geolocation, occurred throughout the species range. With an overall return rate of 34%, our results demonstrate that previous reluctance to tag crabs with relatively high-cost DSTs for fear of loss following moulting is unfounded, and that DSTs can generate precise information with regards life-history metrics that would be unachievable using other conventional means

Listening In on the Past: What Can Otolith δ18O Values Really Tell Us about the Environmental History of Fishes?

Oxygen isotope ratios from fish otoliths are used to discriminate marine stocks and reconstruct past climate, assuming that variations in otolith δ18O values closely reflect differences in temperature history of fish when accounting for salinity induced variability in water δ18O. To investigate this, we exploited the environmental and migratory data gathered from a decade using archival tags to study the behaviour of adult plaice (Pleuronectes platessa L.) in the North Sea. Based on the tag-derived monthly distributions of the fish and corresponding temperature and salinity estimates modelled across three consecutive years, we first predicted annual otolith δ18O values for three geographically discrete offshore sub-stocks, using three alternative plausible scenarios for otolith growth. Comparison of predicted vs. measured annual δ18O values demonstrated >96% correct prediction of sub-stock membership, irrespective of the otolith growth scenario. Pronounced inter-stock differences in δ18O values, notably in summer, provide a robust marker for reconstructing broad-scale plaice distribution in the North Sea. However, although largely congruent, measured and predicted annual δ18O values of did not fully match. Small, but consistent, offsets were also observed between individual high-resolution otolith δ18O values measured during tag recording time and corresponding δ18O predictions using concomitant tag-recorded temperatures and location-specific salinity estimates. The nature of the shifts differed among sub-stocks, suggesting specific vital effects linked to variation in physiological response to temperature. Therefore, although otolith δ18O in free-ranging fish largely reflects environmental temperature and salinity, we counsel prudence when interpreting otolith δ18O data for stock discrimination or temperature reconstruction until the mechanisms underpinning otolith δ18O signature acquisition, and associated variation, are clarified

The Nature Index: A General Framework for Synthesizing Knowledge on the State of Biodiversity

The magnitude and urgency of the biodiversity crisis is widely recognized within scientific and political organizations. However, a lack of integrated measures for biodiversity has greatly constrained the national and international response to the biodiversity crisis. Thus, integrated biodiversity indexes will greatly facilitate information transfer from science toward other areas of human society. The Nature Index framework samples scientific information on biodiversity from a variety of sources, synthesizes this information, and then transmits it in a simplified form to environmental managers, policymakers, and the public. The Nature Index optimizes information use by incorporating expert judgment, monitoring-based estimates, and model-based estimates. The index relies on a network of scientific experts, each of whom is responsible for one or more biodiversity indicators. The resulting set of indicators is supposed to represent the best available knowledge on the state of biodiversity and ecosystems in any given area. The value of each indicator is scaled relative to a reference state, i.e., a predicted value assessed by each expert for a hypothetical undisturbed or sustainably managed ecosystem. Scaled indicator values can be aggregated or disaggregated over different axes representing spatiotemporal dimensions or thematic groups. A range of scaling models can be applied to allow for different ways of interpreting the reference states, e.g., optimal situations or minimum sustainable levels. Statistical testing for differences in space or time can be implemented using Monte-Carlo simulations. This study presents the Nature Index framework and details its implementation in Norway. The results suggest that the framework is a functional, efficient, and pragmatic approach for gathering and synthesizing scientific knowledge on the state of biodiversity in any marine or terrestrial ecosystem and has general applicability worldwide

Lymphatic mapping and sentinel node biopsy in gynecological cancers: a critical review of the literature

Although it does not have a long history of sentinel node evaluation (SLN) in female genital system cancers, there is a growing number of promising study results, despite the presence of some aspects that need to be considered and developed. It has been most commonly used in vulvar and uterine cervivcal cancer in gynecological oncology. According to these studies, almost all of which are prospective, particularly in cases where Technetium-labeled nanocolloid is used, sentinel node detection rate sensitivity and specificity has been reported to be 100%, except for a few cases. In the studies on cervical cancer, sentinel node detection rates have been reported around 80–86%, a little lower than those in vulva cancer, and negative predictive value has been reported about 99%. It is relatively new in endometrial cancer, where its detection rate varies between 50 and 80%. Studies about vulvar melanoma and vaginal cancers are generally case reports. Although it has not been supported with multicenter randomized and controlled studies including larger case series, study results reported by various centers around the world are harmonious and mutually supportive particularly in vulva cancer, and cervix cancer. Even though it does not seem possible to replace the traditional approaches in these two cancers, it is still a serious alternative for the future. We believe that it is important to increase and support the studies that will strengthen the weaknesses of the method, among which there are detection of micrometastases and increasing detection rates, and render it usable in routine clinical practice

Implications for current management advice for North Sea plaice:Part I. Migration between the North Sea and English channel

Twentieth century mark-recapture studies of conventionally tagged plaice suggested that the maximum exchange rate of fish between the North Sea and the eastern English Channel did not exceed 10%. However, recent studies with electronic data storage tags have suggested that this figure may be significantly greater. In spite of this, current stock assessment and management advice is predicated upon the assumption that the eastern English Channel and North Sea contain two distinct stocks, with no mixing between them. Previous studies on other stocks have shown that different mixing rates can yield grossly different predictions of abundance trends. Using a simulation framework based on the current management regime and simple assumptions regarding the mixing scenario, the consequences of ignoring migratory behaviour between independently managed stocks was investigated. Results indicate that the effects of stock mixing can generate considerable bias in the perceived state of a stock relative to its true state and that changes in the management applied to one stock may cause changes in the level of bias for neighbouring stocks. However, it is concluded that improved management will not necessarily be achieved by developing increasingly complex spatial and temporal assessment methods but rather by developing simple but robust management strategies that have been evaluated before implementation against plausible hypotheses about the dynamics of the stocks and fisheries to be managed. Evaluation should be undertaken using a simulation framework that allows a range of plausible hypotheses about stock and fishery dynamics to be included. Crown Copyright (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

A global review of MSC certification: Why fisheries withdraw?

The Marine Stewardship Council is the leader in seafood ecolabel certification. Despite its high impact in promoting sustainable fishing and securing price premiums, a large proportion of fisheries withdraw from the scheme during or after certification. We, therefore, investigate the factors influencing the likelihood of withdrawal. To achieve this, we analysed publicly available information from 301 fisheries that have embarked on the certification process using survival analysis methods to investigate the withdrawal rate. It was found that the fishing gear used, and geographical location were the principal factors affecting the likelihood of withdrawal and that the risk of withdrawal is greatest during the full-assessment process and the first five years of certification. Our study also reviews the uneven global expansion of MSC ecolabelling by region and identifies factors that influence withdrawal and need to be considered in fisheries entering MSC certification

Identification and prioritization of uncertainties for management of Eastern Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus)

In recent decades there has been steady progress towards a risk-based management approach for fisheries. An important first step in a risk analysis framework is scoping to identify, describe and catalog the sources of uncertainty that might have an impact on a fishery. This paper introduces a methodology based on a range of tools to formalize the process of elicitation of uncertainties, from both experts and stakeholders, for the International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas (ICCAT). ICCAT is a regional fisheries management organization responsible for the conservation of tunas and other highly migratory fish in the Atlantic Ocean and its adjacent seas. The aim of the elicitation was to identify and prioritize uncertainties for inclusion in Operating Models for Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE). The tool presented in this paper supports the qualitative prioritization of uncertainties, while also visualizing the degree of consensus among stakeholders on particular issues. Perceptions of uncertainty in fisheries often vary widely among scientists, industry and other interest groups, so tools that can facilitate inclusion and representation of different opinions are useful where decision-making depends on broad agreement and more generally, where effective management depends on commitment from stakeholders