Forecasting Stability Levels for the Countries of the Former Soviet Union

United States intelligence officers and policymakers need reliable forecasts of country, regional, and global stability or instability. Such forecasts require a methodology for identifying and analyzing factors that contribute to stability. The anticipation of this stability level can facilitate crisis warning and diplomatic strategies for various timelines, including five, ten, and twenty year forecasts. While the problem of forecasting can be tackled in various ways, in the interest of time and space, I will only go into a few of them. The approach I will use is multiple linear regression to generate a short-term forecast for the stability levels of the countries of the Former Soviet Union (FSU). This model could ultimately be used to help formulate policies that enhance stability in developing or transitioning countries

Comitês de bacia no Brasil : uma abordagem política no estudo da participação social

Este artigo propõe um marco conceitual para o estudo da gestão de recursos hídricos, no contexto de reforma institucional. Desde o início dos anos 1990, a governança descentralizada e participativa da água vem sendo institucionalizada no Brasil por meio da criação de Comitês de Bacia Hidrográfica. Os Comitês incluem governos, usuários de água (privados e públicos) e sociedade civil e têm competência legal para aprovar planos, definir critérios para cobrança da água bruta, alocar recursos gerados pela cobrança, arbitrar conflitos, além de outras atribuições. Nossa pesquisa sugere que a criação de tais fóruns deliberativos nem sempre resulta na democratização do processo decisório ou em aumento de sua eficácia. As chances de sucesso aumentam consideravelmente quando as lideranças confrontam a questão da sustentabilidade política desde o início, reconhecendo a necessidade de se obter colaboração interna e apoio externo para as atividades dos comitês. O artigo conclui que isso ocorre como conseqüência de práticas que levam à construção de redes entre indivíduos e organizações e estimulam o aprendizado. O nível de empreendedorismo político que fomenta tais práticas, mais do que a natureza dos problemas enfrentados nas bacias, ou a disponibilidade de soluções técnicas apropriadas, distingue os comitês mais efetivos dos demais. _______________________________________________________________________________________________ ABSTRACTThis article presents a conceptual framework for studying water resources management in the context of institutional reform. Since the early 1990s, decentralized, participatory water resources governance has begun to be institutionalized in Brazil through the creation of River Basin Committees. These committees include government, the private sector and civil society, and are legally responsible for approving plans, determining criteria for bulk water charges, allocating proceeds, resolving conflicts and other attributions. Our research suggests that the creation of these deliberative forums does not always result in either more democratic or more effective decision-making. The chances of success are greatly enhanced when leaders confront the problem of political sustainability from the outset, recognizing the need to build internal collaboration and external support for committee activities. We propose that this occurs through practices that lead to the construction of networks of individuals and organizations, and that promote learning. The political entrepreneurship that fosters such practices, even more than the nature of the problem or the availability of appropriate technical solutions, distinguishes the more effective committees from the rest

Framing the Narrative: Female Fighters, External Audience Attitudes, and Transnational Support for Armed Rebellions

Female combatants play a central role in rebel efforts to cultivate and disseminate positive narratives regarding the movement and its political goals. Yet, the effectiveness of such strategies in shaping audience attitudes or generating tangible benefits for the group remains unclear. We propose and test a theory regarding the channels through which female fighters advance rebel goals. We argue that female fighters positively influence audience attitudes toward rebel groups by strengthening observers’ beliefs about their legitimacy and their decision to use armed tactics. We further contend that these effects directly help them secure support from transnational non-state actors and indirectly promote state support. We assess our arguments by combining a novel survey experiment in two countries with analyses of new cross-national data on female combatants and information about transnational support for rebels. The empirical results support our arguments and demonstrate the impact of gender framing on rebel efforts to secure support

Global public policy, transnational policy communities, and their networks

Public policy has been a prisoner of the word "state." Yet, the state is reconfigured by globalization. Through "global public–private partnerships" and "transnational executive networks," new forms of authority are emerging through global and regional policy processes that coexist alongside nation-state policy processes. Accordingly, this article asks what is "global public policy"? The first part of the article identifies new public spaces where global policies occur. These spaces are multiple in character and variety and will be collectively referred to as the "global agora." The second section adapts the conventional policy cycle heuristic by conceptually stretching it to the global and regional levels to reveal the higher degree of pluralization of actors and multiple-authority structures than is the case at national levels. The third section asks: who is involved in the delivery of global public policy? The focus is on transnational policy communities. The global agora is a public space of policymaking and administration, although it is one where authority is more diffuse, decision making is dispersed and sovereignty muddled. Trapped by methodological nationalism and an intellectual agoraphobia of globalization, public policy scholars have yet to examine fully global policy processes and new managerial modes of transnational public administration

"Women's rights, the European Court and Supranational Constitutionalism"

This analysis examines supranational constitutionalism in the European Union. In particular, the study focuses on the role of the European Court of Justice in the creation of women’s rights. I examine the interaction between the Court and member state governments in legal integration, and also the integral role that women’s advocates – both individual activists and groups – have played in the development of EU social provisions. The findings suggest that this litigation dynamic can have the effect of fueling the integration process by creating new rights that may empower social actors and EU organizations, with the ultimate effect of diminishing member state government control over the scope and direction of EU law. This study focuses specifically on gender equality law, yet provides a general framework for examining the case law in subsequent legal domains, with the purpose of providing a more nuanced understanding of supranational governance and constitutionalism

Cidadania mediada : processos de democratização da política municipal no Brasil

This article discusses the notion that the persistence of &ldquo;traditional&rdquo; political practices weakens Brazil&rsquo;s democracy.Drawing on the cases of three Brazilian municipalities administered by the Workers&rsquo; Party (PT), the author examines the space between &ldquo;traditional&rdquo; and &ldquo;modern&rdquo; and argues that successful democratization does not eradicate practices such as clientelism and patronage, but it tends to incorporate and build on these traditional political elements. Moreover, the article maintains that the democratization of municipal politics is inextricably bound up with the eradication of poverty and the construction of a responsive, state-based social safety net.<br /

Advancing the human right to housing in post-Katrina New Orleans: discursive opportunity structures in housing and community development

In post-Katrina New Orleans, housing and community development (HCD) advocates clashed over the future of public housing. This case study examines the evolution of and limits to a human right to housing frame introduced by one nongovernmental organization (NGO). Ferree’s concept of the discursive opportunity structure and Bourdieu’s social field ground this NGO’s failure to advance a radical economic human rights frame, given its choice of a political inside strategy that opened up for HCD NGOs after Hurricane Katrina. Strategic and ideological differences within the field limited the efficacy of this rights-based frame, which was seen as politically radical and risky compared with more resonant frames for seeking affordable housing resources and development opportunities. These divides flowed from the position of the movement-born HCD field within a neoliberal political economy, especially its current institutionalization in the finance and real estate sector, and its dependence on the state for funding and political legitimacy