Effective use of evolutionary computation to parameterise an epidemiological model

Predictive epidemiological models are able to be used most effectively when they have first been shown to fit historical data. Finding the right parameters settings for a model is complex: the system is likely to be noisy, the data points may be sparse, and there may be many inter-related parameters. We apply computational intelligence and data mining techniques in novel ways to investigate this significant problem. We construct an original computational model of human papilloma virus and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia with the ultimate aim of predicting the outcomes of varying control techniques (e.g. vaccination, screening, treatment, quarantine). Two computational intelligence techniques (genetic algorithms and particle swarm optimisation) are used over one- stage and two-stage optimisations for eight real-valued model parameters. Rigorous comparison over a variety of quantitative measures demonstrates the explorative nature of the genetic algorithm (useful in this parameter space to support the modeller). Correlations between parameters are drawn out that might otherwise be missed. Clustering highlights the uniformity of the best genetic algorithm results. Prediction of gender-neutral vaccination with the tuned model suggests elimination of the virus across vaccinated and cross-protected strains, supporting recent Scottish government policy. This preliminary study lays the foundation for more widespread use of computational intelligence techniques in epidemiological modelling

User characteristics and outcomes from a national digital mental health service: an observational study of registrants of the Australian MindSpot Clinic.

Background:Interest is growing in digital and telehealth delivery of mental health services, but data are scarce on outcomes in routine care. The federally funded Australian MindSpot Clinic provides online and telephone psychological assessment and treatment services to Australian adults. We aimed to summarise demographic characteristics and treatment outcomes of patients registered with MindSpot over the first 7 years of clinic operation. Methods:We used an observational design to review all patients who registered for assessment with the MindSpot Clinic between Jan 1, 2013, and Dec 31, 2019. We descriptively analysed the demographics, service preferences, and baseline symptoms of patients. Among patients enrolled in a digital treatment course, we evaluated scales of depression (Patient Health Questionnaire-9 [PHQ-9]) and anxiety (Generalized Anxiety Disorder 7-Item Scale [GAD-7]), as primary measures of treatment outcome, from the screening assessment to post-treatment and a 3 month follow-up. The Kessler Psychological Distress 10-Item Plus Scale was also used to assess changes in general distress and disability, and course satisfaction was measured post-treatment. Outcomes:A total of 121 652 screening assessments were started, of which 96 018 (78·9%) were completed. The mean age of patients was 35·7 years (SD 13·8) and 88 702 (72·9%) were women. Based on available assessment data, 36 866 (34·5%) of 106 811 participants had never previously spoken to a health professional about their symptoms, and most people self-reported symptoms of anxiety (88 879 [81·9%] of 108 494) or depression (78 803 [72·6%] of 108 494), either alone or in combination, at baseline. 21 745 patients started treatment in a therapist-guided online course, of whom 14 503 (66·7%) completed treatment (≥four of five lessons). Key trends in service use included an increase in the proportion of people using MindSpot primarily for assessment and information, from 52·6% in 2013 to 66·7% in 2019, while the proportion primarily seeking online treatment decreased, from 42·6% in 2013 to 26·7% in 2019. Effect sizes and percentage changes were large for estimated mean scores on the PHQ-9 and GAD-7 from assessment to post-treatment (PHQ-9, Cohen's d effect size 1·40 [95% CI 1·37-1·43]; and GAD-7, 1·45 [1·42-1·47]) and the 3 month follow-up (PHQ-9, 1·36 [1·34-1·38]; and GAD-7, 1·42 [1·40-1·44]); proportions of patients with reliable symptom deterioration (score increase of ≥6 points [PHQ-9] or ≥5 points [GAD-7]) were low post-treatment (of 13 058 respondents, 184 [1·4%] had symptom deterioration on the PHQ-9 and 282 [2·2%] on the GAD-7); and patient satisfaction rates were high (12 452 [96·6%] of 12 895 respondents would recommend the course and 12 433 [96·7%] of 12 860 reported the course worthwhile). We also observed small improvements in disability following treatment as measured by days out of role. Interpretation:Our findings indicate improvement in psychological symptoms and positive reception among patients receiving online mental health treatment. These results support the addition of digital services such as MindSpot as a component in contemporary national mental health systems. Funding:None

Electron paramagnetic resonance as a tool to determine the sodium charge storage mechanism of hard carbon

Hard carbon is a promising negative electrode material for rechargeable sodium-ion batteries due to the ready availability of their precursors and high reversible charge storage. The reaction mechanisms that drive the sodiation properties in hard carbons and subsequent electrochemical performance are strictly linked to the characteristic slope and plateau regions observed in the voltage profile of these materials. This work shows that electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopy is a powerful and fast diagnostic tool to predict the extent of the charge stored in the slope and plateau regions during galvanostatic tests in hard carbon materials. EPR lineshape simulation and temperature-dependent measurements help to separate the nature of the spins in mechanochemically modified hard carbon materials synthesised at different temperatures. This proves relationships between structure modification and electrochemical signatures in the galvanostatic curves to obtain information on their sodium storage mechanism. Furthermore, through ex situ EPR studies we study the evolution of these EPR signals at different states of charge to further elucidate the storage mechanisms in these carbons. Finally, we discuss the interrelationship between EPR spectroscopy data of the hard carbon samples studied and their corresponding charging storage mechanism

Assessment of function and clinical utility of alcohol and other drug web sites: An observational, qualitative study

Background The increasing popularity and use of the internet makes it an attractive option for providing health information and treatment, including alcohol/other drug use. There is limited research examining how people identify and access information about alcohol or other drug (AOD) use online, or how they assess the usefulness of the information presented. This study examined the strategies that individuals used to identify and navigate a range of AOD websites, along with the attitudes concerning presentation and content. Methods Members of the general community in Brisbane and Roma (Queensland, Australia) were invited to participate in a 30-minute search of the internet for sites related to AOD use, followed by a focus group discussion. Fifty one subjects participated in the study across nine focus groups. Results Participants spent a maximum of 6.5 minutes on any one website, and less if the user was under 25 years of age. Time spent was as little as 2 minutes if the website was not the first accessed. Participants recommended that AOD-related websites should have an engaging home or index page, which quickly and accurately portrayed the site’s objectives, and provided clear site navigation options. Website content should clearly match the title and description of the site that is used by internet search engines. Participants supported the development of a portal for AOD websites, suggesting that it would greatly facilitate access and navigation. Treatment programs delivered online were initially viewed with caution. This appeared to be due to limited understanding of what constituted online treatment, including its potential efficacy. Conclusions A range of recommendations arise from this study regarding the design and development of websites, particularly those related to AOD use. These include prudent use of text and information on any one webpage, the use of graphics and colours, and clear, uncluttered navigation options. Implications for future website development are discussed

Population-Based Rates of Revision of Primary Total Hip Arthroplasty: A Systematic Review

Background: Most research on failure leading to revision total hip arthroplasty (THA) is reported from single centers. We searched PubMed between January 2000 and August 2010 to identify population- or community-based studies evaluating ten-year revision risks. We report ten-year revision risk using the Kaplan-Meier method, stratifying by age and fixation technique. Results: Thirteen papers met the inclusion criteria. Cemented prostheses had Kaplan-Meier estimates of revision-free implant survival of ten years ranging from 88 % to 95%; uncemented prostheses had Kaplan-Meier estimates from 80 % to 85%. Estimates ranged from 72 % to 86 % in patients less than 60 years old and from 90 to 96 % in older patients. Conclusion: Data reported from national registries suggest revision risks of 5 to 20 % ten years following primary THA. Revision risks are lower in older THA recipients. Uncemented implants may have higher ten-year rates of revision, regardless of age

Stem diameter and rotational stability in revision total hip arthroplasty: a biomechanical analysis

BACKGROUND: Proximal femoral bone loss during revision hip arthroplasty often requires bypassing the deficient metaphyseal bone to obtain distal fixation. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of stem diameter and length of diaphyseal contact in achieving rotational stability in revision total hip arthroplasty. METHODS: Twenty-four cadaveric femoral specimens were implanted with a fully porous-coated stem. Two different diameters were tested and the stems were implanted at multiple contact lengths without proximal bone support. Each specimen underwent torsional testing to failure and rotational micromotion was measured at the implant-bone interface. RESULTS: The larger stem diameter demonstrated a greater torsional stability for a given length of cortical contact (p ≤ 0.05). Decreasing length of diaphyseal contact length was associated with less torsional stability. Torsional resistance was inconsistent at 2 cm of depth. CONCLUSION: Larger stem diameters frequently used in revisions may be associated with less diaphyseal contact length to achieve equivalent rotational stability compared to smaller diameter stems. Furthermore, a minimum of 3 cm or 4 cm of diaphyseal contact with a porous-coated stem should be achieved in proximal femoral bone deficiency and will likely be dependent on the stem diameter utilized at the time of surgery

Feasibility of an incentive scheme to promote active travel to school: a pilot cluster randomised trial

Abstract Background In Great Britain, 19% of trips to primary school within 1 mile, and 62% within 1–2 miles, are by car. Active travel to school (ATS) offers a potential source of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA). This study tested the feasibility of an intervention to promote ATS in 9–10 year olds and associated trial procedures. Methods A parallel cluster randomised pilot trial was conducted over 9 weeks in two schools from a low-income area in northeast England. Measures included daily parental ATS reports (optionally by SMS) and child ATS reports, as well as accelerometry (ActiGraph GT3X+). At baseline, all children were asked to wear the accelerometer for the same week; in the post-randomisation phase, small subsamples were monitored each week. In the 2 weeks when a child wore the accelerometer, parents also reported the start and finish times of the journey to school. The intervention consisted of a lottery-based incentive scheme; every ATS day reported by the parent, whether by paper or SMS, corresponded to one ticket entered into a weekly £5 voucher draw. Before each draw session, the researcher prepared the tickets and placed them into an opaque bag, from which one was randomly picked by the teacher at the draw session. Results Four schools replied positively (3.3%, N = 123) and 29 participants were recruited in the two schools selected (33.0%, N = 88). Participant retention was 93.1%. Most materials were returned on time: accelerometers (81.9%), parental reports (82.1%) and child reports (97.9%). Draw sessions lasted on average 15.9 min (IQR 10–20) and overall session attendance was 94.5%. Parent-child report agreement regarding ATS was moderate (k = 0.53, CI 95% 0.45; 0.60). Differences in minutes of accelerometer-assessed MVPA between parent-reported ATS and non-ATS trips were assessed during two timeframes: during the journey to school based on the times reported by the parent (U = 390.5, p < 0.05, 2.46 (n = 99) vs 0.76 (n = 13)) and in the hour before classes (U = 665.5, p < 0.05, 4.99 (n = 104) vs 2.55 (n = 19)). Differences in MVPA minutes between child-reported ATS and non-ATS trips were also significant for each of the timeframes considered (U = 596.5, p < 0.05, 2.40 (n = 128) vs 0.81 (n = 15) and U = 955.0, p < 0.05, 4.99 (n = 146) vs 2.59 (n = 20), respectively). Conclusions Data suggest the feasibility of an ATS incentive scheme and of most trial procedures. School recruitment stood out as requiring further piloting. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02282631 . Registered 5th September 2014