Defining Influential Factors of Capital Adequacy Ratio: An Examination upon Turkish Banking Sector (2006/Q1-2019/Q1)

Capital adequacy ratio (CAR) of the Turkish Banking Sector (TBS) decreased dramatically from 30.9% in 2003 to 17.1% as of May 2019. This figure shows that although TBS has still a relatively high CAR compared to many countries, unfortunately there is a decreasing trend. A downward trend in CAR constitutes risks due to the limit of providing credits. Therefore, the level of CAR has importance for making a positive contribution to sustainable economic growth. So, influential factors of CAR should be determined first. In this context, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) method, 14 explanatory variables, and quarterly data are used for the period of 2006/Q1-2019/Q1. It is determined that credits/total assets ratio, legal equities, risk weighted assets, nonperforming loans (NPL), NPL/total credits ratio, and credit/deposit ratio are influential factors on CAR in Turkey

Sharia committees in participation banking: an examination upon charter about compliance with the interest-free banking principles and standards (charter)

Türkiye’de katılım bankacılığı 2019 Ağustos ayı itibarıyla %5,9 sektör payına sahip bulunmaktadır. Katılım bankacılığının finansal piyasalar içinde düşük olan sektör payının artırılmasına yönelik faaliyetler sürdürülmektedir. Bu kapsamda, merkezi danışma kurulunun oluşturulmasının ardından katılım bankalarının bünyesindeki danışma kurullarına (yeni adıyla danışma komitelerine) yönelik olarak 14.09.2019 tarihinde Tebliğ yayınlanmıştır. Bu çalışmada, Tebliğ’in uluslararası standartlarla uyumu ve Tebliğ kapsamındaki hususlar incelenmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda, Tebliğ düzenlemelerindeki bazı hususların AAOIFI standartları ile uyumsuz olduğu belirlenmiştir. Söz konusu düzenlemelerin olumsuz etkilere neden olmaması ve uluslararası standartlarla uyumun sağlanması için bir gereklilik olarak ilave düzenleme yapılması önerilmektedir. Ayrıca, Tebliğ’in katılım bankacılığı üzerindeki etkileri Bankacılık Düzenleme ve Denetleme Kurumu (BDDK) tarafından yakından izlenmeli ve olumsuz etkilerin görülmesi halinde hızlı bir şekilde ilave tedbirler alınmalıdır.Participation banking has 5.9% market share in Turkey as of 2019 August. Avariety of efforts has been done in order to increase market share of participation banking in financial markets. In this context, the charter regarding sharia boards (newly named as sharia committees) has been published on 09.14.2019 after establishment of central sharia board. In this study, Charter’s compliance with international standards and issues in the Charter are examined. As a result of the study, it is determined that some issues in the Charter are incompatible with the AAOIFI standards. It is recommended that as a requirement additional regulation should be issued in order not to cause negative effects and to provide compliance with the international standards. Also, effects of the Charter on participation banking should be followed up closely by Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BRSA) and additional measures should be taken immediately if negative effects are seen.Publisher's Versio

Determination of Affecting Factors on Profitability of Banking Sector: An Examination upon the Turkish Banking Sector for the Period of 2006-2018

Although net profit of Turkish Banking Sector (TBS) has reached TL 54.1 billion in 2018, the profitability of TBS has been decreasing. Return on assets of TBS has decreased from 2.3% in 2006 to 1.4% in 2018. Similarly, return of equity of TBS has decreased from 18.8% in 2006 to 10.50% in 2018. This figures verify the decreasing trend in profitability. This trend presents risks for limiting of providing credits of banks. Therefore, the level of profitability of TBS has importance. Affecting factors on profitability should be detected first in order to keep profitability stable. In this context, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) method, 11 explanatory variables, and quarterly data are used between 2006 and 2018. It is determined that net profits, credits, capital, nonperforming loans (NPL)/total credits, total assets, and USD/TL foreign exchange rate (FER) affect the profitability of banking sector in Turkey. Necessary measures should be taken by regulatory authorities to keep net profit stable and increase the profitability of the sector from the current level. Hence, banks could have the opportunity to provide much more credits for financing and supporting economic growth

TIME AND FREQUENCY DEPENDENCY OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES AND COUNTRY RISK: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

This study examines the time and frequency dependency nexus between foreign exchange (FX) rates and country risk in Turkey. We considered Turkey because it is a negative outlier country in terms of the progress of these indicators. Using quarterly data from 1990/Q1 to 2018/Q4 and the Wavelet Coherence approach, we find that an increase in the country risk causes an increase in the FX rates at different frequencies, especially in the medium and long term and different periods. The results highlight the significance of country risk for the progress of the FX rates. Policy implications are discussed

The Impacts of Foreign Portfolio Flows and Monetary Policy Responses on Stock Markets by Considering COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Turkey

Abstract This study researches the impacts of foreign portfolio flows (proxied by foreign investors' retention share) and monetary policy responses (proxied by the repurchase interest rate) on Turkey's stock market index taking the COVID-19 pandemic into consideration. A volatility index, credit default swap spreads, and foreign exchange rates are used as control variables, with a daily dataset between January 2, 2017, and October 20, 2020. After examining the stationarity and nonlinearity characteristics of the variables, we applied a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model and then conducted a Markov switching regression (MSR) for a robustness check. The results reveal that both foreign portfolio flows and monetary responses have an important effect on the index, and foreign portfolio flows have a higher effect than monetary responses. Accordingly, the results obtained from the NARDL and MSR models are robust and consistent

Marginal effect of electricity generation on CO2 emissions: Disaggregated level evidence from China by KRLS method and high-frequency daily data

The effect of energy use on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions has been frequently studied in the literature. These studies have mainly concluded that countries should decline (increase) the use of fossil fuel (clean) energy. However, the literature suffers from a significant shortcoming as it does not focus on the marginal effect of a 1 % increase for each energy generation source on sectoral CO2 emissions. Therefore, a detailed analysis is conducted in this study to examine the relationship between electricity generation (EG) and CO2 emissions at a disaggregated level. The focus is on China, the world's leading country in terms of CO2 emissions and energy use. Thus, the study considers source-based EG and sector-based CO2 emissions, uses high-frequency daily data between January 1, 2019, and December 31, 2022, and applies the kernel-based regularized least squares (KRLS) method. The outcomes show that (i) the effects of EG sources on sectoral CO2 emissions follow a nonlinear structure, suggesting that the marginal effect varies by sector, EG sources, and estimation models (either incremental or degressive). Therefore, there are certain externalities among alternative EG sources for the effects of CO2 emissions in the sectors; (ii) the statistically significant effects of EG sources on CO2 emissions vary by sector and constructed models, showing that some EG sources are much more important for CO2 emissions in some sectors. For this reason, not all EG sources have the same importance for sectoral CO2 emissions; (iii) the KRLS method has a higher estimation ability of CO2 emissions, reaching ∼99.8 %, which provides novel outcomes and allows researchers to argue various policy options based on the obtained results. The study thus highlights varying marginal impacts of EG sources on sectoral CO2 emissions. The changing marginal influence is a crucial point that should be considered by Chinese policymakers when formulating energy-related environmental policies

Effectiveness of green bonds on carbon neutrality and clean electricity generation: Comprehensive evidence from the leading emitting country by disaggregated level analysis

Considering increasing public interest in environment-related problems and the carbon-neutrality aims of countries, this study focuses on the effect of green bonds on enabling carbon neutrality and supporting clean electricity in China, which is the leading top carbon-emitting and energy-using country in the world. In this context, the study makes a disaggregated level empirical analysis by considering sectoral emissions and source-based electricity generation by using quantile-based approaches from January 2, 2019, to December 31, 2023. The outcomes show that (i) green bonds decrease mainly emissions in transport and international aviation sectors; (ii) green bonds have mixed effects on the remaining sectoral emissions; (iii) green bonds increase electricity generation from all sources at higher quantiles, whereas they decrease electricity generation at lower quantiles. Thus, the effect of green bonds varies across sectors, electricity generation sources, and quantiles. Accordingly, a set of policy endeavors, such as dealing with firstly such critical sectors as power and industry, supporting the allocated green bond issuance to specified sectors, and focusing on some clean electricity generation sources like solar and wind, are argued for China

Imposing reserve tax to Turkish financial institutions for strengthening reserves of the central bank of the republic of Turkey

Although foreign exchange rates (FER) and inflation increased slowly between from 2002 and 2013, they increased rapidly after that time and they have reached the highest level in 2018 on annual base since 2006. Adverse developments in indicators like FER make negative effects on economic actors by causing uncertainty and uneasiness. They also cause adverse effects on a variety of macroeconomic indicators such as foreign debt burden and interest payments. For this reason, it is important for countries to determine causes of increasing in FER and take measures to keep them under control. For this purpose, there are a lot of conventional tools like tight monetary policy, tight fiscal policy, implementation of harmonious policies and capital controls. In this context, reserves of CBRT are an important tool. However, it is necessary to have adequate reserves in order to use reserves to keep FER under control. Taking into consideration this fact, it is recommended to impose reserve tax liability to financial institutions so that reserves of CBRT could be increased.Döviz kurları ve enflasyon, 2002-2013 arasında yavaş artmasına karşın 2013 sonrasında hızlı artış göstermiş ve 2006 sonrasında yıllık bazda en yüksek seviyeye 2018 yılında ulaşmışlardır. Döviz kurları gibi değişkenlerde görülen olumsuz gelişmeler belirsizlikler ve zorluklara yol açarak ekonomik aktörler üzerinde negatif etkiler oluşturmaktadır. Dış borç yükü ve faiz ödemeleri gibi birçok makroekonomik gösterge üzerinde de olumsuz etkilere neden olmaktadır. Bu nedenle, döviz kurlarında artışın nedenlerinin belirlenmesi ve döviz kurlarının kontrol altında tutulması için önlemler alınması ülkeler açısından önem taşımaktadır. Bu amaçla, sıkı para politikası, sıkı maliye politikası, uyumlu politikaların uygulanması ve sermaye kontrolleri gibi birçok geleneksel araç bulunmaktadır. Bu kapsamda, TCMB rezervleri önemli bir araçtır. Ancak, döviz kurlarının kontrol altında tutulmasında kullanılması için yeterli rezervlere sahip olmak bir gerekliliktir. Bu gerçeği göz önünde tutarak, TCMB rezervlerinin artırılması için finansal kuruluşlara rezerv vergisi yükümlülüğü getirilmesi önerilmektedir

The Effects of Macroeconomic Indicators on Lending Interest Rates: Evidence from BRICST, MINT, and Fragile Five Countries

This study analyzes the effects of the macroeconomic indicators on the lending interest rates in the leading emerging countries by considering the significance of the interest rates for economic growth since high-level interest rates decrease economic growth and volatile interest rates deteriorate economic stability. In this context, the lending interest rate is considered as the dependent variable; foreign exchange (FX) rates, gross domestic product (GDP), and inflation are included as the independent variables that are the main macroeconomic indicators; annual data from 1990 to 2019 are used, and the panel data analysis is applied. The empirical analysis results reveal that (i) FX rates, GDP, and inflation have a significant effect on the lending interest rates at the panel level; (ii) the significance of these macroeconomic indicators vary at the country level; (iii) GDP is the most influential factor on the lending interest rates at both panel and the country level. The analysis results underline the effects of macroeconomic factors on the lending interest rates. Therefore, countries should apply appropriate policies to lessen the adverse effects of the macroeconomic indicators on the interest rates so that economic growth can be supported by low-level lending interest rates. Hence, emerging countries can benefit from low-level lending interest rates

The role of renewable and nuclear energy R&D expenditures and income on environmental quality in Germany : Scrutinizing the EKC and LCC hypotheses with smooth structural changes

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