ANALYZING COLLATERAL REPO HAIRCUTS IN ASIAN COUNTRIES

We study repo haircut determinants and develop the haircut calculation model. Collateral securities are government and corporate fixed-incomes, and we examine the determinants in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Hong Kong. Implementing the Generalized AutoRegressive-Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) process, we find that the changes in long-memory returns, liquidities, and currency influence haircuts. Then, we introduce the haircut model using the historical and parametric Value-at-Risk (VaR), burdening the borrower as much as the α-percentile collateral loss. When borrowers default, lenders get the collaterals and haircuts to compensate for the collateral-price change

English

This study examines multiple transmission mechanisms that propagate and amplify shocks across Asian nations owing to financial turbulence with emphasis on global shock transmission between economies that prioritise ‘trade’ and ‘financial’ connections in four countries: Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, and the Philippines. Based on the logit estimation outcomes, a higher degree of trade openness amplifies the implications of shocks on the economy. Relevant implications are drawn for optimal regional monitoring and the coordination of integration as the economic fundamentals associated with the currency crises complements the first-generation models of speculative attacks

FOREIGN AND PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENTS IN INDONESIA: CROWDING-IN OR CROWDING-OUT?

This study aims to investigate the empirical relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to Private Domestic Investment (PDI) in Indonesia by using quarterly data from 1990Q2 to 2020Q2. It tests the crowding-in effect (which suggests complementarity between FDI and PDI) and crowding out effect (which indicates asubstitution effect between FDI and PDI) at the sectoral level. Our results imply the prevalence of the crowding-in effect in the primary and secondary sectors, with the tertiary sector exhibiting a neutral relationship. No rational reason was observed for the restriction of foreign investment. Therefore, it is suggested that Indonesia’s government needs to actively engage in FDI to increase the growth of new investments in the primary and secondary sectors of the domestic economy

MACRO-FINANCIAL DETERMINANTS OF DEFAULT PROBABILITY USING COPULA: A CASE STUDY OF INDONESIAN BANKS

We investigate the default probability of Indonesian banks using the copula approach and analyze the macro-financial factors that drive them. We use quarterly data comprised of 80 banks from 2005 to 2019. We find empirical evidence that Common Equity Tier 1 (CET 1) ratio, inefficiency ratio, and deposit ratio have negativelyimpacted the bank’s default probability. We also find that macroeconomic variables such as policy rate, real exchange, economic growth, and unemployment reduce the default probability. Our study suggests that regulators should focus on capital and deposit management policies to reduce bank risk-taking behaviour. Additionally, the policy rate effectively anticipated the banks’ default risk

THE EFFECT OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON THE RISKS OF INVESTMENTS IN INDONESIA: EVIDENCE FROM THE EGARCH MODEL

This study analyzes the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the risks of gold, stocks, and the US dollar investments as well as risk comparison among those instruments. An EGARCH model is used to accommodate the asymmetric effect on the risks. To examine the pandemic effect, we use a dummy variable of before and during the pandemic and stringency index which reflects government seriousness about COVID-19 prevention. The results show that risks are higher during the pandemic while government actions reduce risks. Stocks are riskiest instrument and suitable for risk seekers. Gold is least risky and suitable for risk averters

Pengaruh Kebijakan Pajak Perusahaan terhadap Investasi Langsung Luar Negeri: Bukti Empiris dari Negara-Negara Asia

The phenomenon of Corporate Tax Rate (CTR) reduction to attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has been an interesting subject given the lack of consensus from empirical studies. This study aims to provide empirical evidence on the relationship between CTR and FDI, and examine factors that influence FDI inflows. Using data for 28 Asian countries from 1999 to 2014, we find that CTR has a significant negative effect on FDI inflows. FDI inflows increase by 4.38% due to a 1% CTR reduction. We also find that other economic factors, such as economic openness, market size, and exchange rates play an important role in attracting FDI inflows.Fenomena penurunan tarif pajak perusahaan pada banyak negara dalam rangka menarik investor asing telah menjadi bahan diskusi yang menarik. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memberikan bukti empiris apakah penurunan tarif pajak perusahaan mempengaruhi arus masuk investasi langsung luar negeri, dan faktor-faktor apa saja yang paling efektif dalam meningkatkan arus masuk investasi tersebut. Melalui pendekatan model efek tetap, model efek acak, dan model data panel dinamis, dengan data 28 negara Asia selama tahun 1999 – 2014, kami menyimpulkan bahwa tarif pajak perusahaan berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap investasi langsung luar negeri. Investasi langsung luar negeri akan merespons setiap penurunan 1% tarif pajak perusahaan dengan peningkatan arus masuk sebesar 4,38%. Kami juga menyimpulkan bahwa selain faktor kebijakan pajak, faktor keterbukaan ekonomi, ukuran pasar, ukuran pasar, inefisiensi energi, manufaktur, dan nilai tukar juga efektif dalam meningkatkan arus masuk investasi langsung luar negeri.   Kata kunci: Investasi langsung luar negeri, tarif pajak perusahaan, model efek tetap, model efek acak, model data panel dinamis. Klasifikasi JEL: E62, F21, G11, H25, H3

APAKAH KOORDINASI KEBIJAKAN MONETER INTERNASIONAL FISIBEL UNTUK NEGARA-NEGARA ASEAN+3?

We examine the feasibility of international monetary policy coordination among the ASEAN-5 + 3 countries using the two-production-factor Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DGSE) models. It explores three types of interaction regimes among these countries: (1) No Coordination; (2) Bilateral Coordination; and (3)Multilateral Coordination. We find 18 feasible Bilateral Coordination schemes and four feasible Multilateral Coordination schemes for the ASEAN-5 + 3 countries. The best among these schemes is the Multilateral Coordination scheme that involves all the ASEAN-5 + 3 countries. Therefore, we suggest that the ASEAN-5 + 3 countries should adopt this scheme if coordinating monetary policies.Abstrak Penelitian ini merupakan studi fisibilitas terhadap koordinasi kebijakan moneter internasional di antara negara-negara ASEAN-5 + 3 dengan menggunakan model Keseimbangan Umum Stokastik Dinamis (DSGE) dengan dua faktor produksi. Penelitian ini menelusuri tiga regim interaksi antarnegara: “tidak ada koordinasi”, “koordinasi bilateral”, dan “koordinasi multilateral”. Penelitian ini mengidentifikasi 18 skema koordinasi bilateral yang fisibel (dari 28 skema yang ada) dan 4 skema koordinasi multilateral yang fisibel (dari 6 skema yang ada) untuk negara-negara ASEAN-5 + 3. Koordinasi multilateral yang melibatkan semua negara ASEAN-5 + 3 adalah skema yang terbaik di antara semua skema koordinasi yang fisibel. Skema-skema koordinasi multilateral cenderung menghasilkan tingkat kesejahteraan yang lebih baik daripada skema-skema bilateral.   Klasifikasi JEL: F41, F4

PANDEMICS, LOCKDOWN AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A REGION-SPECIFIC PERSPECTIVE ON COVID-19

This study examines the impacts of COVID-19 induced factors and country specific health-care infrastructure and co-morbid factors on economic growth between January 1, 2021, to May 31, 2021 for 19 South and South-east Asian (SSEA) economies. Our findings indicate that COVID-19 related mortality negates growth, while vaccination and testing have no significant impact on growth during this period. We further quantify the effects by instrumenting government policy measures and vaccination drives in terms of testing, tracking and mortality. Our findings show a negative effect of lockdowns on growth, while vaccination has a positive impact on growth and controls fatality rate considerably