Tailoring the visual communication of climate projections for local adaptation practitioners in Germany and the UK

Visualizations are widely used in the communication of climate projections. However, their effectiveness has rarely been assessed among their target audience. Given recent calls to increase the usability of climate information through the tailoring of climate projections, it is imperative to assess the effectiveness of different visualizations. This paper explores the complexities of tailoring through an online survey conducted with 162 local adaptation practitioners in Germany and the UK. The survey examined respondents’ assessed and perceived comprehension (PC) of visual representations of climate projections as well as preferences for using different visualizations in communicating and planning for a changing climate. Comprehension and use are tested using four different graph formats, which are split into two pairs. Within each pair the information content is the same but is visualized differently. We show that even within a fairly homogeneous user group, such as local adaptation practitioners, there are clear differences in respondents’ comprehension of and preference for visualizations. We do not find a consistent association between assessed comprehension and PC or use within the two pairs of visualizations that we analysed. There is, however, a clear link between PC and use of graph format. This suggests that respondents use what they think they understand the best, rather than what they actually understand the best. These findings highlight that audience-specific targeted communication may be more complex and challenging than previously recognized

Exploiting Locally Imposed Anisotropies in (Ga,Mn)As: a Non-volatile Memory Device

Progress in (Ga,Mn)As lithography has recently allowed us to realize structures where unique magnetic anisotropy properties can be imposed locally in various regions of a given device. We make use of this technology to fabricate a device in which we study transport through a constriction separating two regions whose magnetization direction differs by 90 degrees. We find that the resistance of the constriction depends on the flow of the magnetic field lines in the constriction region and demonstrate that such a structure constitutes a non-volatile memory device

Bayesian Space-Time Patterns and Climatic Determinants of Bovine Anaplasmosis

Citation: Hanzlicek, G. A., Raghavan, R. K., Ganta, R. R., & Anderson, G. A. (2016). Bayesian Space-Time Patterns and Climatic Determinants of Bovine Anaplasmosis. Plos One, 11(3), 13. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0151924The space-time pattern and environmental drivers (land cover, climate) of bovine anaplasmosis in the Midwestern state of Kansas was retrospectively evaluated using Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal models and publicly available, remotely-sensed environmental covariate information. Cases of bovine anaplasmosis positively diagnosed at Kansas State Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory (n = 478) between years 2005-2013 were used to construct the models, which included random effects for space, time and space-time interaction effects with defined priors, and fixed-effect covariates selected a priori using an univariate screening procedure. The Bayesian posterior median and 95% credible intervals for the space-time interaction term in the best-fitting covariate model indicated a steady progression of bovine anaplasmosis over time and geographic area in the state. Posterior median estimates and 95% credible intervals derived for covariates in the final covariate model indicated land surface temperature (minimum), relative humidity and diurnal temperature range to be important risk factors for bovine anaplasmosis in the study. The model performance measured using the Area Under the Curve (AUC) value indicated a good performance for the covariate model (>0.7). The relevance of climatological factors for bovine anaplasmosis is discussed

Long nonlinear internal waves

Author Posting. © Annual Reviews, 2006. This article is posted here by permission of Annual Reviews for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Annual Review of Fluid Mechanics 38 (2006): 395-425, doi:10.1146/annurev.fluid.38.050304.092129.Over the past four decades, the combination of in situ and remote sensing observations has demonstrated that long nonlinear internal solitary-like waves are ubiquitous features of coastal oceans. The following provides an overview of the properties of steady internal solitary waves and the transient processes of wave generation and evolution, primarily from the point of view of weakly nonlinear theory, of which the Korteweg-de Vries equation is the most frequently used example. However, the oceanographically important processes of wave instability and breaking, generally inaccessible with these models, are also discussed. Furthermore, observations often show strongly nonlinear waves whose properties can only be explained with fully nonlinear models.KRH acknowledges support from NSF and ONR and an Independent Study Award from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. WKM acknowledges support from NSF and ONR, which has made his work in this area possible, in close collaboration with former graduate students at Scripps Institution of Oceanography and MIT

CMIP5 climate model analyses: Climate extremes in the United States

Given the increases in spatial resolution and other improvements in climate modeling capabilities over the last decade since the CMIP3 simulations were completed, CMIP5 provides a unique opportunity to assess scientific understanding of climate variability and change over a range of historical and future conditions. With participation from over 20 modeling groups and more than 40 global models, CMIP5 represents the latest and most ambitious coordinated international climate model intercomparison exercise to date. Observations dating back to 1900 show that the temperatures in the twenty-first century have the largest spatial extent of record breaking and much above normal mean monthly maximum and minimum temperatures. The 20-yr return value of the annual maximum or minimum daily temperature is one measure of changes in rare temperature extremes

Reliability of Rapid Diagnostic Tests in Diagnosing Pregnancy-Associated Malaria in North-Eastern Tanzania.

Accurate diagnosis and prompt treatment of pregnancy-associated malaria (PAM) are key aspects in averting adverse pregnancy outcomes. Microscopy is the gold standard in malaria diagnosis, but it has limited detection and availability. When used appropriately, rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) could be an ideal diagnostic complement to microscopy, due to their ease of use and adequate sensitivity in detecting even sub-microscopic infections. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) is even more sensitive, but it is mainly used for research purposes. The accuracy and reliability of RDTs in diagnosing PAM was evaluated using microscopy and PCR. A cohort of pregnant women in north-eastern Tanzania was followed throughout pregnancy for detection of plasmodial infection using venous and placental blood samples evaluated by histidine rich protein 2 (HRP-2) and parasite lactate dehydrogenase (pLDH) based RDTs (Parascreen™) or HRP-2 only (Paracheck Pf® and ParaHIT®f), microscopy and nested Plasmodium species diagnostic PCR. From a cohort of 924 pregnant women who completed the follow up, complete RDT and microscopy data was available for 5,555 blood samples and of these 442 samples were analysed by PCR. Of the 5,555 blood samples, 49 ((proportion and 95% confidence interval) 0.9% [0.7 -1.1]) samples were positive by microscopy and 91 (1.6% [1.3-2.0]) by RDT. Forty-six (50.5% [40.5 - 60.6]) and 45 (49.5% [39.4 - 59.5]) of the RDT positive samples were positive and negative by microscopy, respectively, whereas nineteen (42.2% [29.0 - 56.7]) of the microscopy negative, but RDT positive, samples were positive by PCR. Three (0.05% [0.02 - 0.2]) samples were positive by microscopy but negative by RDT. 351 of the 5,461 samples negative by both RDT and microscopy were tested by PCR and found negative. There was no statistically significant difference between the performances of the different RDTs. Microscopy underestimated the real burden of malaria during pregnancy and RDTs performed better than microscopy in diagnosing PAM. In areas where intermittent preventive treatment during pregnancy may be abandoned due to low and decreasing malaria risk and instead replaced with active case management, screening with RDT is likely to identify most infections in pregnant women and out-performs microscopy as a diagnostic tool

A Sub-Microscopic Gametocyte Reservoir Can Sustain Malaria Transmission

Novel diagnostic tools, including PCR and high field gradient magnetic fractionation (HFGMF), have improved detection of asexual Plasmodium falciparum parasites and especially infectious gametocytes in human blood. These techniques indicate a significant number of people carry gametocyte densities that fall below the conventional threshold of detection achieved by standard light microscopy (LM).To determine how low-level gametocytemia may affect transmission in present large-scale efforts for P. falciparum control in endemic areas, we developed a refinement of the classical Ross-Macdonald model of malaria transmission by introducing multiple infective compartments to model the potential impact of highly prevalent, low gametocytaemic reservoirs in the population. Models were calibrated using field-based data and several numerical experiments were conducted to assess the effect of high and low gametocytemia on P. falciparum transmission and control. Special consideration was given to the impact of long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets (LLIN), presently considered the most efficient way to prevent transmission, and particularly LLIN coverage similar to goals targeted by the Roll Back Malaria and Global Fund malaria control campaigns. Our analyses indicate that models which include only moderate-to-high gametocytemia (detectable by LM) predict finite eradication times after LLIN introduction. Models that include a low gametocytemia reservoir (requiring PCR or HFGMF detection) predict much more stable, persistent transmission. Our modeled outcomes result in significantly different estimates for the level and duration of control needed to achieve malaria elimination if submicroscopic gametocytes are included.It will be very important to complement current methods of surveillance with enhanced diagnostic techniques to detect asexual parasites and gametocytes to more accurately plan, monitor and guide malaria control programs aimed at eliminating malaria

Influence of arthritis and non-arthritis related factors on areal bone mineral density (BMDa) in women with longstanding inflammatory polyarthritis: a primary care based inception cohort

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The aim of this analysis was to determine the relative influence of disease and non-disease factors on areal bone mineral density (BMD_a) in a primary care based cohort of women with inflammatory polyarthritis.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Women aged 16 years and over with recent onset inflammatory polyarthritis were recruited to the Norfolk Arthritis Register (NOAR) between 1990 and 1993. Subjects were examined at both baseline and follow up for the presence of tender, swollen and deformed joints. At the 10^thanniversary visit, a sub-sample of women were invited to complete a bone health questionnaire and attend for BMD_a(Hologic, QDR 4000). Linear regression was used to examine the association between BMD_awith both (i) arthritis-related factors assessed at baseline and the 10^thanniversary visit and (ii) standard risk factors for osteoporosis. Adjustments were made for age.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>108 women, mean age 58.0 years were studied. Older age, decreasing weight and BMI at follow up were all associated with lower BMD_aat both the spine and femoral neck. None of the lifestyle factors were linked. Indices of joint damage including 10^thanniversary deformed joint count and erosive joint count were the arthritis-related variables linked with a reduction in BMD_aat the femoral neck. By contrast, disease activity as determined by the number of tender and or swollen joints assessed both at baseline and follow up was not linked with BMD_aat either site.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Cumulative disease damage was the strongest predictor of reduced femoral bone density. Other disease and lifestyle factors have only a modest influence.</p

K201 improves aspects of the contractile performance of human failing myocardium via reduction in Ca2+ leak from the sarcoplasmic reticulum

In heart failure, intracellular Ca2+ leak from cardiac ryanodine receptors (RyR2s) leads to a loss of Ca2+ from the sarcoplasmic reticulum (SR) potentially contributing to decreased function. Experimental data suggest that the 1,4-benzothiazepine K201 (JTV-519) may stabilise RyR2s and thereby reduce detrimental intracellular Ca2+ leak. Whether K201 exerts beneficial effects in human failing myocardium is unknown. Therefore, we have studied the effects of K201 on muscle preparations from failing human hearts. K201 (0.3 μM; extracellular [Ca2+]e 1.25 mM) showed no effects on contractile function and micromolar concentrations resulted in negative inotropic effects (K201 1 μM; developed tension −9.8 ± 2.5% compared to control group; P < 0.05). Interestingly, K201 (0.3 μM) increased the post-rest potentiation (PRP) of failing myocardium after 120 s, indicating an increased SR Ca2+ load. At high [Ca2+]e concentrations (5 mmol/L), K201 increased PRP already at shorter rest intervals (30 s). Strikingly, treatment with K201 (0.3 μM) prevented diastolic dysfunction (diastolic tension at 5 mmol/L [Ca2+]e normalised to 1 mmol/L [Ca2+]e: control 1.26 ± 0.06, K201 1.01 ± 0.03, P < 0.01). In addition at high [Ca2+]e, K201 (0.3 μM) treatment significantly improved systolic function [developed tension +27 ± 8% (K201 vs. control); P < 0.05]. The beneficial effects on diastolic and systolic functions occurred throughout the physiological frequency range of the human heart rate from 1 to 3 Hz. Upon elevated intracellular Ca2+ concentration, systolic and diastolic contractile functions of terminally failing human myocardium are improved by K201