Integrating stakeholders' perspectives and spatial modelling to develop scenarios of future land use and land cover change in northern Tanzania.

Rapid rates of land use and land cover change (LULCC) in eastern Africa and limited instances of genuinely equal partnerships involving scientists, communities and decision makers challenge the development of robust pathways toward future environmental and socioeconomic sustainability. We use a participatory modelling tool, Kesho, to assess the biophysical, socioeconomic, cultural and governance factors that influenced past (1959-1999) and present (2000-2018) LULCC in northern Tanzania and to simulate four scenarios of land cover change to the year 2030. Simulations of the scenarios used spatial modelling to integrate stakeholders' perceptions of future environmental change with social and environmental data on recent trends in LULCC. From stakeholders' perspectives, between 1959 and 2018, LULCC was influenced by climate variability, availability of natural resources, agriculture expansion, urbanization, tourism growth and legislation governing land access and natural resource management. Among other socio-environmental-political LULCC drivers, the stakeholders envisioned that from 2018 to 2030 LULCC will largely be influenced by land health, natural and economic capital, and political will in implementing land use plans and policies. The projected scenarios suggest that by 2030 agricultural land will have expanded by 8-20% under different scenarios and herbaceous vegetation and forest land cover will be reduced by 2.5-5% and 10-19% respectively. Stakeholder discussions further identified desirable futures in 2030 as those with improved infrastructure, restored degraded landscapes, effective wildlife conservation, and better farming techniques. The undesirable futures in 2030 were those characterized by land degradation, poverty, and cultural loss. Insights from our work identify the implications of future LULCC scenarios on wildlife and cultural conservation and in meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and targets by 2030. The Kesho approach capitalizes on knowledge exchanges among diverse stakeholders, and in the process promotes social learning, provides a sense of ownership of outputs generated, democratizes scientific understanding, and improves the quality and relevance of the outputs

Serengeti's futures: Exploring land use and land cover change scenarios to craft pathways for meeting conservation and development goals

Rapid land use transformations and increased climatic uncertainties challenge potential sustainable development pathways for communities and wildlife in regions with strong economic reliance on natural resources. In response to the complex causes and consequences of land use change, participatory scenario development approaches have emerged as key tools for analyzing drivers of change to help chart the future of socio-ecological systems. We assess stakeholder perspectives of land use and land cover change (LULCC) and integrate co-produced scenarios of future land cover change with spatial modeling to evaluate how future LULCC in the wider Serengeti ecosystem might align or diverge with the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals and the African Union's Agenda 2063. Across the wider Serengeti ecosystem, population growth, infrastructural development, agricultural economy, and political will in support of climate change management strategies were perceived to be the key drivers of future LULCC. Under eight scenarios, declines in forest area as a proportion of total land area ranged from 0.1% to 4% in 2030 and from 0.1% to 6% in 2063, with the preservation of forest cover linked to the level of protection provided. Futures with well-demarcated protected areas, sound land use plans, and stable governance were highly desired. In contrast, futures with severe climate change impacts and encroached and degazetted protected areas were considered undesirable. Insights gained from our study are important for guiding pathways toward achieving sustainability goals while recognizing societies' relationship with nature. The results highlight the usefulness of multi-stakeholder engagement, perspective sharing, and consensus building toward shared socio-ecological goals

Epidemiology of Theileria bicornis among black and white rhinoceros metapopulation in Kenya

[Background] A huge effort in rhinoceros conservation has focused on poaching and habitat loss as factors leading to the dramatic declines in the endangered eastern black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis michaeli) and the southern white rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum simum). Nevertheless, the role disease and parasite infections play in the mortality of protected populations has largely received limited attention. Infections with piroplasmosis caused by Babesia bicornis and Theileria bicornis has been shown to be fatal especially in small and isolated populations in Tanzania and South Africa. However, the occurrence and epidemiology of these parasites in Kenyan rhinoceros is not known.[Results] Utilizing 18S rRNA gene as genetic marker to detect rhinoceros infection with Babesia and Theileria, we examined blood samples collected from seven rhinoceros populations consisting of 114 individuals of black and white rhinoceros. The goal was to determine the prevalence in Kenyan populations, and to assess the association of Babesia and Theileria infection with host species, age, sex, location, season and population mix (only black rhinoceros comparing to black and white rhinoceros populations). We did not detect any infection with Babesia in the sequenced samples, while the prevalence of T. bicornis in the Kenyan rhinoceros population was 49.12% (56/114). White rhinoceros had significantly higher prevalence of infection (66%) compared to black rhinoceros (43%). The infection of rhinoceros with Theileria was not associated with animal age, sex or location. The risk of infection with Theileria was not higher in mixed species populations compared to populations of pure black rhinoceros.[Conclusion] In the rhinoceros studied, we did not detect the presence of Babesia bicornis, while Theileria bicornis was found to have a 49.12% prevalence with white rhinoceros showing a higher prevalence (66%) comparing with black rhinoceros (43%). Other factors such as age, sex, location, and population mix were not found to play a significant role.We acknowledge support by the CSIC Open Access Publication Initiative through its Unit of Information Resources for Research (URICI)Peer reviewe

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2017年2月2日(木) 於:早稲田大学 小野記念講

Serengeti’s futures: Exploring land use and land cover change scenarios to craft pathways for meeting conservation and development goals

This research article was published by Frontiers in Conservation Science, 2022Rapid land use transformations and increased climatic uncertainties challenge potential sustainable development pathways for communities and wildlife in regions with strong economic reliance on natural resources. In response to the complex causes and consequences of land use change, participatory scenario development approaches have emerged as key tools for analyzing drivers of change to help chart the future of socio-ecological systems. We assess stakeholder perspectives of land use and land cover change (LULCC) and integrate co-produced scenarios of future land cover change with spatial modeling to evaluate how future LULCC in the wider Serengeti ecosystem might align or diverge with the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals and the African Union’s Agenda 2063. Across the wider Serengeti ecosystem, population growth, infrastructural development, agricultural economy, and political will in support of climate change management strategies were perceived to be the key drivers of future LULCC. Under eight scenarios, declines in forest area as a proportion of total land area ranged from 0.1% to 4% in 2030 and from 0.1% to 6% in 2063, with the preservation of forest cover linked to the level of protection provided. Futures with well-demarcated protected areas, sound land use plans, and stable governance were highly desired. In contrast, futures with severe climate change impacts and encroached and degazetted protected areas were considered undesirable. Insights gained from our study are important for guiding pathways toward achieving sustainability goals while recognizing societies’ relationship with nature. The results highlight the usefulness of multi-stakeholder engagement, perspective sharing, and consensus building toward shared socio-ecological goals

Pathways from research to sustainable development: insights from ten research projects in sustainability and resilience

Drawing on collective experience from ten collaborative research projects focused on the Global South, we identify three major challenges that impede the translation of research on sustainability and resilience into better-informed choices by individuals and policy-makers that in turn can support transformation to a sustainable future. The three challenges comprise: (i) converting knowledge produced during research projects into successful knowledge application; (ii) scaling up knowledge in time when research projects are short-term and potential impacts are long-term; and (iii) scaling up knowledge across space, from local research sites to larger-scale or even global impact. Some potential pathways for funding agencies to overcome these challenges include providing targeted prolonged funding for dissemination and outreach, and facilitating collaboration and coordination across different sites, research teams, and partner organizations. By systematically documenting these challenges, we hope to pave the way for further innovations in the research cycle

Integrating evidence of land use and land cover change for land management policy formulation along the Kenya-Tanzania borderlands

This paper presents an overview of the scientific evidence providing insights into long term ecosystem and social dynamics across the northern Tanzania and southern Kenya borderlands. The data sources covered a range from palaeoenvironmental records and archaeological information to remote sensing and social science studies that examined human-environmental interactions and land use land cover changes (LULCC) in the region. This knowledge map of published LULCC research contributes to current debates about the drivers and dynamics of LULCC. The review aims to facilitate both multidisciplinary LULCC research and evidence-based policy analyses to improve familiarity and engagement between LULCC knowledge producers and end-users and to motivate research integration for land management policy formulation. Improving familiarity among researchers and non-academic stakeholders through the collation and synthesis of the scientific literature is among the challenges hindering policy formulation and land management decision-making by various stakeholders along the Kenya-Tanzania borderlands. Knowledge syntheses are necessary; yet, do not fully bridge the gap between knowledge and policy action. Cooperation across the science-policy interface is fundamental for the co-production of research questions by academics, policy makers and diverse stakeholders aimed at supporting land management decision making. For improved co-development and co-benefitting outcomes, the LULCC scientific community needs to mobilise knowledge for a broader audience and to advance co-development of relevant and meaningful LULCC products

Understanding Land Use and Land Cover Changes in Northern Tanzania

The project Adaptation & Resilience to Climate Change (ARCC) is funded by the Swedish Research Council. It draws together researchers in environmental change, participatory research methods, archaeology and ecology at Tanzanian, Swiss, British and Swedish institutions. Their common aim is to investigate historical patterns of land cover and land use change in northern Tanzania. The wide range of local environments there includes semi-arid scrublands, savannahs, wetlands, montane forests and highelevation vegetation. There are also many land use regimes, with land designated for conservation, pastoralism, agriculture, agroforestry and human settlements ranging from isolated homesteads to urban complexes. The allocated areas and their boundaries have all changed through time. Today's multiple stakeholders have overlapping and sometimes competing interests. In complex and contested landscapes such as these, planning for sustainable and resilient futures poses considerable challenges. It requires the integration of cross-disciplinary perspectives on past, present and future environmental conditions and land uses. Together, these provide a nexus for stakeholder consensus and help build understanding of how landscapes and human interactions evolved and potentially co-adapted to their present conditions