Assessing debt sustainability in emerging market economies using stochastic simulation methods

The authors apply stochastic simulation methods to assess debt sustainability in emerging market economies and provide probability measures for projections of the external and public debt burden over the medium term. The vulnerability of public debt to adverse shocks is determined by a number of interrelated factors, including the volatility of output, financial fragility, the endogenous response of the risk premium, and sudden stops in private capital flows. The vulnerability of external debt is sensitive to the determination of the exchange rate and to the pricing of traded goods. The authors show that fiscal policy can act in a preemptive manner to prevent the debt burden from rising significantly over the medium term. This requires flexibility in fiscal planning, which many emerging market economies lack. Emerging market economies therefore face a difficult tradeoff between managing the risk of a debt crisis and pursuing other important fiscal policy objectives.Economic Theory&Research,Strategic Debt Management,Settlement of Investment Disputes,Macroeconomic Management,External Debt

A MILP model for an integrated project scheduling and multi-skilled workforce allocation with flexible working hours

In this paper, we integrate two decision problems arising in various applications such as production planning and project management: the project scheduling problem, which consists in scheduling a set of precedence-constrained tasks, where each task requires executing a set of skills to be performed, and the workforce allocation problem which includes assigning workers as scarce resources to the skills of each task. These two problems are interrelated as the tasks durations are not predefined, but depend on the number of workers assigned to that task as well as their skill levels. We here present a mixed integer linear programming model that considers important real life aspects related to the flexibility in the use of human resources, such as multi-skilled workers whose skill levels are different and measured by their efficiencies. Hence, execution times of the same workload by different workers vary according to these efficiencies. Moreover, the model considers the flexible working time of employees; i.e. the daily and weekly workload of a given worker may vary from one period to another according to the work required. Furthermore, efficient team building is incorporated in this model; i.e. assigning an expert worker and one or more apprentice worker(s) together with the purpose of skill development thanks to knowledge transfer. A numerical example is provided to check the performance of the model

Word Embedding for Social Book Suggestion

International audienceThis paper presents the joint work of the Universities of Grenoble and Saint-´ Etienne at CLEF 2016 Social Book Search Suggestion Track. The approaches studied are based on personalization, considering the user's profile in the ranking process. The profile is filtered using Word Embedding, by proposing several ways to handle the generated relationships between terms. We find that tackling the problem of " non-topical " only queries is a great challenge in this case. The official results show that Word Embedding methods are able to improve results in the SBS case

Global Positioning System measurements of strain accumulation and slip transfer through the restraining bend along the Dead Sea fault system in Lebanon

Approximately 4 yr of campaign and continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements across the Dead Sea fault system (DSFS) in Lebanon provide direct measurements of interseismic strain accumulation along a 200-km-long restraining bend in this continental transform fault. Late Cenozoic transpression within this restraining bend has maintained more than 3000 m of topography in the Mount Lebanon and Anti-Lebanon ranges. The GPS velocity field indicates 4-5 mm yr-1 of relative plate motion is transferred through the restraining bend to the northern continuation of the DSFS in northwestern Syria. Near-field GPS velocities are generally parallel to the major, left-lateral strike-slip faults, suggesting that much of the expected convergence across the restraining bend is likely accommodated by different structures beyond the aperture of the GPS network (e.g. offshore Lebanon and, possibly, the Palmyride fold belt in SW Syria). Hence, these geodetic results suggest a partitioning of crustal deformation involving strike-slip displacements in the interior of the restraining bend, and crustal shortening in the outer part of the restraining bend. Within the uncertainties, the GPS-based rates of fault slip compare well with Holocene-averaged estimates of slip along the two principal strike-slip faults: the Yammouneh and Serghaya faults. Of these two faults, more slip occurs on the Yammouneh fault, which constitutes the primary plate boundary structure between the Arabia and Sinai plates. Hence, the Yammouneh fault is the structural linkage that transfers slip to the northern part of the transform in northwestern Syria. From the perspective of the regional earthquake hazard, the Yammouneh fault is presently locked and accumulating interseismic strain

δ-Risk: Towards context-aware multi-objective privacy management in connected environments

In today’s highly connected cyber-physical environments, users are becoming more and more concerned about their privacy and ask for more involvement in the control of their data. However, achieving effective involvement of users requires improving their privacy decision-making. This can be achieved by: (i) raising their awareness regarding the direct and indirect privacy risks they accept to take when sharing data with consumers; (ii) helping them in optimizing their privacy protection decisions to meet their privacy requirements while maximizing data utility. In this paper, we address the second goal by proposing a user-centered multiobjective approach for context-aware privacy management in connected environments, denote

Vagus nerve stimulation: State of the art of stimulation and recording strategies to address autonomic function neuromodulation

International audienceObjective. Neural signals along the vagus nerve (VN) drive many somatic and autonomic functions. The clinical interest of VN stimulation (VNS) is thus potentially huge and has already been demonstrated in epilepsy. However, side effects are often elicited, in addition to the targeted neuromodulation. Approach. This review examines the state of the art of VNS applied to two emerging modulations of autonomic function: heart failure and obesity, especially morbid obesity. Main results. We report that VNS may benefit from improved stimulation delivery using very advanced technologies. However, most of the results from fundamental animal studies still need to be demonstrated in humans

Model-Based Design and Experimental Validation of Control Modules for Neuromodulation Devices

International audienceGoal - The goal of this paper is to propose a model-based control design framework, adapted to the development of control modules for medical devices. A particular example is presented in which instantaneous heart rate is regulated in real-time, by modulating, in an adaptive manner, the current delivered to the vagus nerve by a neuromodulator. Methods - The proposed framework couples a control module, based on a classical PI controller, a mathematical model of the medical device, and a physiological model representing the cardiovascular responses to vagus nerve stimulation (VNS). In order to analyze and evaluate the behavior of the device, different control parameters are tested on a "virtual population," generated with the model, according to the Latin Hypercube sampling method. In particular, sensitivity analyses are applied for the identification of a domain of interest in the space of the control parameters. The obtained control parameter domain has been validated in an experimental evaluation on six sheep. Results - A range of control parameters leading to accurate results was successfully estimated by the proposed model-based design method. Experimental evaluation of the control parameters inside such a domain led to the best compromise between accuracy and time response of the VNS control. Conclusion - The feasibility and usefulness of the proposed model-based design method were shown, leading to a functional, real-time closed-loop control of the VNS for the regulation of heart rate

Type of calcineurin inhibitor and long-term outcomes following liver transplantation in patients with primary biliary cholangitis – an ELTR study

Background &amp; Aims: Tacrolimus has been associated with recurrence of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) after liver transplantation (LT), which in turn may reduce survival. This study aimed to assess the association between the type of calcineurin inhibitor used and long-term outcomes following LT in patients with PBC. Methods: Survival analyses were used to assess the association between immunosuppressive drugs and graft or patient survival among adult patients with PBC in the European Liver Transplant Registry. Patients who received a donation after brain death graft between 1990 and 2021 with at least 1 year of event-free follow-up were included. Results: In total, 3,175 patients with PBC were followed for a median duration of 11.4 years (IQR 5.9–17.9) after LT. Tacrolimus (Tac) was registered in 2,056 (64.8%) and cyclosporin in 819 (25.8%) patients. Following adjustment for recipient age, recipient sex, donor age, and year of LT, Tac was not associated with higher risk of graft loss (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.07, 95% CI 0.92-1.25, p = 0.402) or death (aHR 1.06, 95% CI 0.90-1.24, p = 0.473) over cyclosporin. In this model, maintenance mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) was associated with a lower risk of graft loss (aHR 0.72, 95% CI 0.60-0.87, p &lt;0.001) or death (aHR 0.72, 95% CI 0.59-0.87, p &lt;0.001), while these risks were higher with use of steroids (aHR 1.31, 95% CI 1.13-1.52, p &lt;0.001, and aHR 1.34, 95% CI 1.15-1.56, p &lt;0.001, respectively). Conclusions: In this large LT registry, type of calcineurin inhibitor was not associated with long-term graft or recipient survival, providing reassurance regarding the use of Tac post LT in the population with PBC. Patients using MMF had a lower risk of graft loss and death, indicating that the threshold for combination treatment with Tac and MMF should be low. Impact and implications: This study investigated the association between immunosuppressive drugs and the long-term survival of patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) following donation after brain death liver transplantation. While tacrolimus has previously been related to a higher risk of PBC recurrence, the type of calcineurin inhibitor was not related to graft or patient survival among patients transplanted for PBC in the European Liver Transplant Registry. Additionally, maintenance use of mycophenolate was linked to lower risks of graft loss and death, while these risks were higher with maintenance use of steroids. Our findings should provide reassurance for physicians regarding the continued use of Tac after liver transplantation in the population with PBC, and suggest potential benefit from combination therapy with mycophenolate.</p

NEWS AND NOTES 1988, VOL.19, NO.3

https://digitalcommons.rockefeller.edu/news_and_notes_1988/1001/thumbnail.jp