Predictive Modeling for Forecasting Air Quality Index (AQI) Using Time Series Analysis

Air pollution is a widespread problem in India. The study focuses on forecasting the air quality index (AQI) using time series modeling techniques for the most polluted area of Dehradun City in Uttarakhand state, India. The train test approach of machine learning and Akaike information criterion (AIC) have been used on the monthly data of five years to select the best auto-regressive model. Using the auto-correlation functions (ACF and PACF) and the seasonality component in the time-series dataset, a seasonal auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) model with its minimum AIC has been chosen to forecast the AQI. This model is also validated by comparing its predicted values with the actual values of AQI. The results showed that the seasonal ARMA model of (1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 could forecast AQI based on a stationary dataset. The research also indicates that the asthma patients of the Himalayan Drugs-ISBT region may experience more health effects, especially in winter, due to poor air quality. The model can be helpful for a scientist and the government to take precautionary measures in advance

Clinical Effectiveness of Facility and Accuracy of Accommodation in Diagnosis of Non Strabismic Binocular Vision Anomalies in Young Adults: A Prospective Cross-sectional Observational Study

Introduction: Orthoptic evaluation is highly recommended in children and young adults to diagnose binocular dysfunctions. Binocular vision dysfunctions may hamper academic performance in children. Accommodative facility and accommodative accuracy are two orthoptic tests to evaluate accommodative flexibility and accommodative status of eye. Aim: To investigate the effectiveness of facility and accuracy of accommodation in diagnosis of Non Strabismic Binocular Vision Anomalies (NSBVA) in young adults. Materials and Methods: This prospective, cross-sectional observational study was conducted at Optsight Eye Care in association with Amity Medical School, Gurugram, Haryana, India, from August 2020 to August 2021. A total of 175 subjects (both symptomatic and asymptomatic) with normal anterior and posterior segment findings, and aged between 18-25 years were evaluated for accommodative facility test with the help of accommodative lens flipper ±2D and for accommodative status test with the help of monocular estimation method (dynamic retinoscopy). Both the tests were done over their best corrected visual acuity after refractive error correction and the Pearson correlation test was applied to find out the correlation. Further, complete orthoptic examination was performed for all the subjects to correlate the abnormal findings from the two tests and conventional orthoptic tests. Independent sample t-test was applied to compare the accommodative facility between refractive groups. Results: Out of 175 subjects, 84 (48%) of the subjects were found to have NSBVA which included 26 (14.86%) convergence insufficiency, 30 (17.14%) with accommodative insufficiency, 25 (14.29%) with convergence insufficiency secondary to accommodative insufficiency and 3 (1.71%) with accommodative infacility. A positive correlation between binocular accommodative facility and status of accommodation was found with a p-value <0.001 (r=0.51). Conclusion: Status of accommodation and facility test can help to differentiate the accommodative and vergence problems making examination less time consuming. Both of these procedures should be a part of general routine eye examination protocol in the young adult group, so that detection of these anomalies become less time consuming and patient gets benefitted from early intervention

Subaperture wavefront measurement using Talbot interferometry

A method based on sub aperture stitching for measurement of a freeform wavefront is proposed and applied to wavefronts calculated from the slope data acquired using a Talbot wavefront sensor. The presented theory is tested experimentally on the example of a cubic wavefront generated by a phase plate. A comparison with a commercial Shack Hartmann Sensor is done

Non-small cell lung cancer presenting with choroidal metastasis as first sign and showing good response to chemotherapy alone: a case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>Metastatic tumors are the most common intra-ocular malignancies and choroid is by far the most common site for intra-ocular malignancies. Multiple foci are usually involved, and bilateral involvement is frequently seen. The primary sites for choroidal metastasis in decreasing order and by gender are: breast, lung, unknown primary, gastrointestinal and pancreas, skin melanoma and other rare sources in females, and lung, unknown primary, gastrointestinal and pancreas, prostate, kidney, skin melanoma and other rare sources in males. Available treatment options are external beam radiotherapy and plaque radiotherapy, while new methods like surgical resection, transpupillary thermotherapy and intravitreal chemotherapy offer promises for the future. The use of chemotherapy alone for choroidal metastases is not widely reported.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>We report the case of a 50-year-old Indian man who had a unilateral solitary lesion in his right eye. He was found to have an adenocarcinoma of the lung with choroidal metastasis as the first presenting sign. There were no findings of metastasis involving his contralateral eye. He was administered chemotherapy based on gemcitabine and carboplatin. He had significant progressive subjective and objective improvement since his first chemotherapy. His current best corrected visual acuity is 20/60 after three cycles of chemotherapy.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Chemotherapy alone can be used as an effective mode of treatment in patients who have primary tumors that respond to chemotherapy.</p

High level xylitol production by Pichia fermentans using non-detoxified xylose-rich sugarcane bagasse and olive pits hydrolysates

Hemicellulosic sugars, the overlooked fraction of lignocellulosic residues can serve as potential and cost-effective raw material that can be exploited for xylitol production. Xylitol is a top platform chemical with applications in food and pharmaceutical industries. Sugarcane bagasse (SCB) and olive pits (OP) are the major waste streams from sugar and olive oil industries, respectively. The current study evaluated the potential of Pichia fermentans for manufacturing of xylitol from SCB and OP hydrolysates through co-fermentation strategy. The highest xylitol accumulation was noticed with a glucose and xylose ratio of 1:10 followed by feeding with xylose alone. The fed-batch cultivation using pure xylose, SCB, and OP hydrolysates, resulted in xylitol accumulation of 102.5, 86.6 and 71.9 g/L with conversion yield of 0.78, 0.75 and 0.74 g/g, respectively. The non-pathogenic behaviour and ability to accumulate high xylitol levels from agro-industrial residues demonstrates the potential of P. fermentans as microbial cell factory

Association of RT-qPCR Ct Values and Disease Severity among COVID-19 Patients Visiting a Tertiary Care Hospital in Nepal

COVID-19 pandemic due to SARS-CoV-2 has been one of the major global health issues of this aeon. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association of SARS-CoV-2 cycle threshold (Ct) values with multiple factors among COVID-19 patients visiting a tertiary care hospital in Sudurpashchim province of Nepal. A retrospective analysis was performed on the data of randomly selected COVID-19 cases among the total RT-qPCR tested patients from March 2020 to April 2022. The Ct values at the time of patient admission and their clinical outcomes (discharge or death) were compared. Among the COVID-19 patients, survivor group had significantly higher initial Ct value compared to non-survivors [median Ct values 23.21 and 24.39 (P < 0.0001)]. Selected haematological parameters; white blood cells (P<001), neutrophils (P<001), and monocytes (P<0.0001), and all the biochemical parameters were significantly different between these two groups (p < 0.005). Furthermore, significantly increased CRP (61.54±63.00, P<0.0017), D-dimer levels (0.8979± 1.480, P<0.0001), creatinine (0.7931±0.2551, P<0.0001), monocytes (0.6782±0.7981, P<0.0001), and random blood sugar (152.4±34.32, P<0.0001) were observed among non-survivors indicating as cause of disease severity in COVID-19. The findings of this study imply that the Ct value, CRP and D-dimer levels could be a crucial marker for the early detection of severe COVID-19 patients or those at higher risk of developing severe disease. This will eventually help to identify cases requiring immediate and critical medical care and reduce mortality

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years o

Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe