Computing the Kolmogorov-Smirnov Distribution When the Underlying CDF is Purely Discrete, Mixed, or Continuous

The distribution of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test statistic has been widely studied under the assumption that the underlying theoretical cumulative distribution function (CDF), F (x), is continuous. However, there are many real-life applications in which fitting discrete or mixed distributions is required. Nevertheless, due to inherent difficulties, the distribution of the KS statistic when F (x) has jump discontinuities has been studied to a much lesser extent and no exact and efficient computational methods have been proposed in the literature. In this paper, we provide a fast and accurate method to compute the (complementary) CDF of the KS statistic when F (x) is discontinuous, and thus obtain exact p values of the KS test. Our approach is to express the complementary CDF through the rectangle probability for uniform order statistics, and to compute it using fast Fourier transform (FFT). Secondly, we provide a C++ and an R implementation of the proposed method, which fills the existing gap in statistical software. We give also a useful extension of the Schmid's asymptotic formula for the distribution of the KS statistic, relaxing his requirement for F (x) to be increasing between jumps and thus allowing for any general mixed or purely discrete F (x). The numerical performance of the proposed FFT-based method, implemented both in C++ and in the R package KSgeneral, available from https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=KSgeneral, is illustrated when F (x) is mixed, purely discrete, and continuous. The performance of the general asymptotic formula is also studied

Optimal joint survival reinsurance: An efficient frontier approach

The problem of optimal excess of loss reinsurance with a limiting and a retention level is considered. It is demonstrated that this problem can be solved, combining specific risk and performance measures, under some relatively general assumptions for the risk model, under which the premium income is modelled by any non-negative, non-decreasing function, claim arrivals follow a Poisson process and claim amounts are modelled by any continuous joint distribution. As a performance measure, we define the expected profits at time x of the direct insurer and the reinsurer, given their joint survival up to x, and derive explicit expressions for their numerical evaluation. The probability of joint survival of the direct insurer and the reinsurer up to the finite time horizon x is employed as a risk measure. An efficient frontier type approach to setting the limiting and the retention levels, based on the probability of joint survival considered as a risk measure and on the expected profit given joint survival, considered as a performance measure is introduced. Several optimality problems are defined and their solutions are illustrated numerically on several examples of appropriate claim amount distributions, both for the case of dependent and independent claim severitie

Longevity Basis Risk A methodology for assessing basis risk

This technical report details the methodology developed on behalf of the LBRWG to assess longevity basis risk. A user-guide which provides a high level summary of this report has also been produced. Together these documents form the key outputs of the first phase of a longevity basis risk project commissioned and funded by the IFoA and the LLMA, and undertaken on our behalf by Cass Business School and Hymans Robertson LLP

Excess of loss reinsurance under joint survival optimality

Explicit expressions for the probability of joint survival up to time x of the cedent and the reinsurer, under an excess of loss reinsurance contract with a limiting and a retention level are obtained, under the reasonably general assumptions of any non-decreasing premium income function, Poisson claim arrivals and continuous claim amounts, modelled by any joint distribution. By stating appropriate optimality problems, we show that these results can be used to set the limiting and the retention levels in an optimal way with respect to the probability of joint survival. Alternatively, for fixed retention and limiting levels, the results yield an optimal split of the total premium income between the two parties in the excess of loss contract. This methodology is illustrated numerically on several examples of independent and dependent claim severities. The latter are modelled by a copula function. The effect of varying its dependence parameter and the marginals, on the solutions of the optimality problems and the joint survival probability, has also been explored

Pricing of reinsurance contracts in the presence of catastrophe bonds

A methodology for pricing of reinsurance contracts in the presence of a catastrophe bond is developed. An important advantage of this approach is that it allows for the pricing of reinsurance contracts consistent with the observed market prices of catastrophe bonds on the same underlying risk process. Within the proposed methodology, an appropriate financial pricing formula is derived, under a market implied risk neutral probability measure for both a catastrophe bond and an aggregate excess of loss reinsurance contract, using a generalised Fourier transform. Efficient numerical methods for the evaluation of this formula, such as the Fast Fourier transform and Fractional Fast Fourier transform, are considered. The methodology is illustrated on several examples including Pareto and Gamma claim severities

Modelling the joint distribution of competing risks survival times using copula functions

The problem of modelling the joint distribution of survival times in a competing risks model, using copula functions is considered. In order to evaluate this joint distribution and the related overall survival function, a system of non-linear differential equations is solved, which relates the crude and net survival functions of the modelled competing risks, through the copula. A similar approach to modelling dependent multiple decrements was applied by Carriere (1994) who used a Gaussian copula applied to an incomplete double decrement model which makes it difficult to calculate any actuarial functions and draw relevant conclusions. Here, we extend this methodology by studying the effect of complete and partial elimination of up to four competing risks on the overall survival function, the life expectancy and life annuity values. We further investigate how different choices of the copula function affect the resulting joint distribution of survival times and in particular the actuarial functions which are of importance in pricing life insurance and annuity products. For illustrative purposes, we have used a real data set and used extrapolation to prepare a complete multiple decrement model up to age 120. Extensive numerical results illustrate the sensitivity of the model with respect to the choice of copula and its parameter(s)

Lookback option pricing using the Fourier transform B-spline method

We derive a new, efficient closed-form formula approximating the price of discrete lookback options, whose underlying asset price is driven by an exponential semimartingale process, which includes (jump) diffusions, Lévy models, affine processes and other models. The derivation of our pricing formula is based on inverting the Fourier transform using B-spline approximation theory. We give an error bound for our formula and establish its fast rate of convergence to the true price. Our method provides lookback option prices across the quantum of strike prices with greater efficiency than for a single strike price under existing methods. We provide an alternative proof to the Spitzer formula for the characteristic function of the maximum of a discretely observed stochastic process, which yields a numerically efficient algorithm based on convolutions. This is an important result which could have a wide range of applications in which the Spitzer formula is utilized. We illustrate the numerical efficiency of our algorithm by applying it in pricing fixed and floating discrete lookback options under Brownian motion, jump diffusion models, and the variance gamma process

A comparative study of two population models for the assessment of basis risk in longevity hedges

Longevity swaps have been one of the major success stories of pension scheme derisking in recent years. However, with some few exceptions, all of the transactions to date have been bespoke longevity swaps based upon the mortality experience of a portfolio of named lives. In order for this market to start to meet its true potential, solutions will ultimately be needed that provide protection for all types of members, are cost effective for large and smaller schemes, are tradable, and enable access to the wider capital markets. Index-based solutions have the potential to meet this need; however concerns remain with these solutions. In particular, the basis risk emerging from the potential mismatch between the underlying forces of mortality for the index reference portfolio and the pension fund/annuity book being hedged is the principal issue that has, to date, prevented many schemes progressing their consideration of index-based solutions. Two-population stochastic mortality models offer an alternative to overcome this obstacle as they allow market participants to compare and project the mortality experience for the reference and target populations and thus assess the amount of demographic basis risk involved in an index-based longevity hedge. In this paper, we systematically assess the suitability of several multi-population stochastic mortality models for assessing basis risks and provide guidelines on how to use these models in practical situations paying particular attention to the data requirements for the appropriate calibration and forecasting of such models

On Double-Boundary Non-Crossing Probability for a Class of Compound Processes with Applications

We develop an efficient method for computing the probability that a non-decreasing, pure jump (compound) stochastic process stays between arbitrary upper and lower boundaries (i.e., deterministic functions, possibly discontinuous) within a finite time period. The compound process is composed of a process modelling the arrivals of certain events (e.g., demands for a product in inventory systems, customers in queuing, or claims/capital gains in insurance/dual risk models), and a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables modelling the sizes of the events. The events arrival process is assumed to belong to the wide class of point processes with conditional stationary independent increments which includes (non-)homogeneous Poisson, binomial, negative binomial, mixed Poisson and doubly stochastic Poisson (i.e., Cox) processes as special cases. The proposed method is based on expressing the non-exit probability through Chapman-Kolmogorov equations, re-expressing them in terms of a circular convolution of two vectors which is then computed applying fast Fourier transform (FFT). We further demonstrate that our FFT-based method is computationally efficient and can be successfully applied in the context of inventory management (to determine an optimal replenishment policy), ruin theory (to evaluate ruin probabilities and related quantities) and double-barrier option pricing or simply computing non-exit probabilities for Brownian motion with general boundaries