Propagating uncertainty to estimates of above-ground biomass for Kenyan mangroves: a scaling procedure from tree to landscape level

Mangroves are globally important carbon stores and as such have potential for inclusion in future forest-based climate change mitigation strategies such as Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+). Participation in REDD+ will require developing countries to produce robust estimates of forest above-ground biomass (AGB) accompanied by an appropriate measure of uncertainty. Final estimates of AGB should account for known sources of uncertainty (measurement and predictive) particularly when estimating AGB at large spatial scales. In this study, mixed-effects models were used to account for variability in the allometric relationship of Kenyan mangroves due to species and site effects. A generic biomass equation for Kenyan mangroves was produced in addition to a set of species-site specific equations. The generic equation has potential for broad application as it can be used to predict the AGB of new trees where there is no pre-existing knowledge of the specific species-site allometric relationship: the most commonly encountered scenario in practical biomass studies. Predictions of AGB using the mixed-effects model showed good correspondence with the original observed values of AGB although displayed a poorer fit at higher AGB values, suggesting caution in extrapolation. A strong relationship was found between the observed and predicted values of AGB using an independent validation dataset from the Zambezi Delta, Mozambique (R2 = 0.96, p = < 0.001). The simulation based approach to uncertainty propagation employed in the current study produced estimates of AGB at different spatial scales (tree – landscape level) accompanied by a realistic measure of the total uncertainty. Estimates of mangrove AGB in Kenya are presented at the plot, regional and landscape level accompanied by 95% prediction intervals. The 95% prediction intervals for landscape level estimates of total AGB stocks suggest that between 5.4 and 7.2 megatonnes of AGB is currently held in Kenyan mangrove forests

Mangroves in peril: unprecedented degradation rates of peri-urban mangroves in Kenya

Marine ecosystems are experiencing unprecedented degradation rates higher than any other ecosystem on the planet, which in some instances are up to 4 times those of rainforests. Mangrove ecosystems have especially been impacted by compounded anthropogenic pressures leading to significant cover reductions of between 35 and 50% (equivalent to 1–2% loss pa) for the last half century. The main objective of this study was to test the hypothesis that peri-urban mangroves suffering from compounded and intense pressures may be experiencing higher degradation rates than the global mean (and/or national mean for Kenya) using Mombasa mangroves (comprising Tudor and Mwache creeks) as a case study. Stratified sampling was used to sample along 22 and 10 belt transects in Mwache and Tudor respectively, set to capture stand heterogeneity in terms of species composition and structure in addition to perceived human pressure gradients using proximity to human habitations as a proxy. We acquired SPOT (HRV/ HRVIR/ HRS) images of April 1994, May 2000 and January 2009 and a vector mangrove map of 1992 at a scale of 1:50 000 for cover change and species composition analysis. Results from image classification of the 2009 image had 80.23% overall accuracy and Cohen's kappa of 0.77, thus proving satisfactory for use in this context. Structural data indicate that complexity index (CI) which captures stand structural development was higher in Mwache at 1.80 compared to Tudor at 1.71. From cover change data, Tudor lost 86.9% of the forest between 1992 and 2009, compared to Mwache at 45.4%, representing very high hitherto undocumented degradation rates of 5.1 and 2.7% pa, respectively. These unprecedentedly high degradation rates, which far exceed not only the national mean (for Kenya of 0.7% pa) but the global mean as well, strongly suggest that these mangroves are highly threatened due to compounded pressures. Strengthening of governance regimes through enforcement and compliance to halt illegal wood extraction, improvement of land-use practices upstream to reduce soil erosion, restoration in areas where natural regeneration has been impaired, provision of alternative energy sources/building materials and a complete moratorium on wood extraction especially in Tudor Creek to allow recovery are some of the suggested management interventions

Blue carbon solutions in Kenya’s climate actions

Blue carbon ecosystems (mangroves, salt marshes and seagrass meadows) are highly efficient carbon sinks with the potential to make an important contribution to the mitigation of climate change. Conservation and management of Blue Carbon ecosystems and commitments in Kenya are summarised in Table 1 of this brief, along with key stakeholders who need to engage with them. The incorporation of ocean climate actions into Kenya’s updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC, 2020) is a significant milestone in climate change intervention measures. Kenya has about 612 km2 and 317 km2 of mangroves and seagrass respectively.UK Natural Environment Research Counci

Seagrass removal leads to rapid changes in fauna and loss of carbon.

Seagrass habitats are important natural carbon sinks, with an average of ∼14 kg C m−2 buried in their sediments. The fate of this carbon following seagrass removal or damage has major environmental implications but is poorly understood. Using a removal experiment lasting 18 months at Gazi Bay, Kenya, we investigated the impactsof seagrass loss on sediment topography, hydrodynamics, faunal community structure and carbon dynamics. Sediment pins were used to monitor surface elevation. The effects of seagrass removal on water velocity was investigated using Plaster of Paris dissolution. Sediment carbon concentration was measured at the surface and down to 50 cm. Rates of litter decay at three depths in harvested and control treatments were measured using litter bags. Drop samples, cores, and visual counts of faunal mounds and burrows were used to monitor the impact of seagrass removal on the epifaunal and infaunal communities. Whilst control plots showed sediment elevation, harvested plots were eroded (7.6 ± 0.4 and −15.8 ± 0.5mm yr−1 respectively, mean ± 95%CI). Carbon concentration in the surface sediments was significantly reduced with a mean carbon loss of 2.21Mg C ha−1 in the top 5 cm. Because sediment was lost fromharvested plots, with a mean difference in elevation of 3 cm, an additional carbon loss of up to 2.54Mg C ha−1 may have occurred over the 18 months. Seagrass removal had rapid and dramatic impacts on infauna and epifauna. There was a loss of diversity in harvested plots and a shift toward larger bodied, bioturbating species, with a significant increase in mounds and burrows. Buried seagrass litter decomposed significantly faster in the harvested compared with the control plots. Loss of seagrass therefore led to rapid changes in sediment dynamics and chemistry driven in part by significant alterations in the faunal community

Rapid Losses of Surface Elevation following Tree Girdling and Cutting in Tropical Mangroves

The importance of mangrove forests in carbon sequestration and coastal protection has been widely acknowledged. Large-scale damage of these forests, caused by hurricanes or clear felling, can enhance vulnerability to erosion, subsidence and rapid carbon losses. However, it is unclear how small-scale logging might impact on mangrove functions and services. We experimentally investigated the impact of small-scale tree removal on surface elevation and carbon dynamics in a mangrove forest at Gazi bay, Kenya. The trees in five plots of a Rhizophora mucronata (Lam.) forest were first girdled and then cut. Another set of five plots at the same site served as controls. Treatment induced significant, rapid subsidence (−32.1±8.4 mm yr−1 compared with surface elevation changes of +4.2±1.4 mm yr−1 in controls). Subsidence in treated plots was likely due to collapse and decomposition of dying roots and sediment compaction as evidenced from increased sediment bulk density. Sediment effluxes of CO2 and CH4 increased significantly, especially their heterotrophic component, suggesting enhanced organic matter decomposition. Estimates of total excess fluxes from treated compared with control plots were 25.3±7.4 tCO2 ha−1 yr−1 (using surface carbon efflux) and 35.6±76.9 tCO2 ha−1 yr−1 (using surface elevation losses and sediment properties). Whilst such losses might not be permanent (provided cut areas recover), observed rapid subsidence and enhanced decomposition of soil sediment organic matter caused by small-scale harvesting offers important lessons for mangrove management. In particular mangrove managers need to carefully consider the trade-offs between extracting mangrove wood and losing other mangrove services, particularly shoreline stabilization, coastal protection and carbon storage

Organic banana 2000: towards an organic banana initiative in the Caribbean: Report of the international workshop on the production and marketing of organic bananas by smallholders. 31 October - 4 November 1999, Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic

Diversification has never been so important, as it is now for small-scale farmers competing in a free market economy. Countries of the Caribbean have recognised the niche in the market for organic bananas, the Dominican Republic currently being the largest exporter of organic bananas. This meeting, jointly run by INIBAP, CAB International and the Technical Centre for Agricultural and Rural Cooperation (CTA), provided a forum for discussion and information exchange for a wide range of interest groups, from farmers to retailers, with the aim of developing an initiative to support organic banana production and export in the Caribbean. This 174-page report provides papers on the current status of banana production, particular the development of organic production, in the Caribbean, as well as in Central and South America and Cameroon, also the prospects of the North American and European market, aspects of quality assurance and certification, and production constraints. The results of working groups and the conclusions of the meeting are also included. In brief, this publication presents an important discussion of the latest issues surrounding organic production of bananas and lays down a comprehensive plan of action for the way forward