Dynamic prediction model to identify young children at high risk of future overweight: Development and internal validation in a cohort study

Background: Primary prevention of overweight is to be preferred above secondary prevention, which has shown moderate effectiveness. Objective: To develop and internally validate a dynamic prediction model to identify young children in the general population, applicable at every age between birth and age 6, at high risk of future overweight (age 8). Methods: Data were used from the Prevention and Incidence of Asthma and Mite Allergy birth cohort, born in 1996 to 1997, in the Netherlands. Participants for whom data on the outcome overweight at age 8 and at least three body mass index SD scores (BMI SDS) at the age of ≥3 months and ≤6 years were available, were included (N = 2265). The outcome of the prediction model is overweight (yes/no) at age 8 (range 7.4-10.5 years), defined according to the sex- and age-specific BMI cut-offs of the International Obesity Task Force. Results: After backward selection in a Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, the prediction model included the baseline predictors maternal BMI, paternal BMI, paternal education, birthweight, sex, ethnicity and indoor smoke exposure; and the longitudinal predictors BMI SDS, and the linear and quadratic terms of the growth curve describing a child's BMI SDS development over time, as well as the longitudinal predictors' interactions with age. The area under the curve of the model after internal validation was 0.845 and Nagelkerke R2 was 0.351. Conclusions: A dynamic prediction model for overweight was developed with a good predictive ability using easily obtainable predictor information. External validation is needed to confirm that the model has potential for use in practice

Development of classification criteria for hand osteoarthritis: comparative analyses of persons with and without hand osteoarthritis

Objectives Further knowledge about typical hand osteoarthritis (OA) characteristics is needed for the development of new classification criteria for hand OA.Methods In a cross-sectional multi-centre international study, a convenience sample of patients from primary and secondary/tertiary care with a physician-based hand OA diagnosis (n = 128) were compared with controls with hand complaints due to inflammatory or non-inflammatory conditions (n = 70). We examined whether self-reported, clinical, radiographic and laboratory findings were associated with hand OA using logistic regression analyses. Discrimination between groups was assessed by calculating the area under receiver operating curves (AUC).Results Strong associations with hand OA were observed for radiographic osteophytes (OR = 1.62, 95% CI 1.40 to 1.88) and joint space narrowing (JSN) (OR = 1.57, 95% CI 1.36 to 1.82) in the distal interphalangeal (DIP) joints with excellent discrimination (AUC = 0.82 for both). For osteophytes and JSN, we found acceptable discrimination between groups in the proximal interphalangeal joints (AUC = 0.77 and 0.78, respectively), but poorer discrimination in the first carpometacarpal joints (AUC = 0.67 and 0.63, respectively). Painful DIP joints were associated with hand OA, but were less able to discriminate between groups (AUC = 0.67). Age and family history of OA were positively associated with hand OA, whereas negative associations were found for pain, stiffness and soft tissue swelling in metacarpophalangeal joints, pain and marginal erosions in wrists, longer morning stiffness, inflammatory biomarkers and autoantibodies.Conclusions Differences in symptoms, clinical findings, radiographic changes and laboratory tests were found in patients with hand OA versus controls. Radiographic OA features, especially in DIP joints, were best suited to discriminate between groups.Clinical epidemiolog

Causality and functional relevance of BRCA1 and BRCA2 pathogenic variants in non-high-grade serous ovarian carcinomas

The identification of causal BRCA1/2 pathogenic variants (PVs) in epithelial ovarian carcinoma (EOC) aids the selection of patients for genetic counselling and treatment decision-making. Current recommendations therefore stress sequencing of all EOCs, regardless of histotype. Although it is recognised that BRCA1/2 PVs cluster in high-grade serous ovarian carcinomas (HGSOC), this view is largely unsubstantiated by detailed analysis. Here, we aimed to analyse the results of BRCA1/2 tumour sequencing in a centrally revised, consecutive, prospective series including all EOC histotypes. Sequencing of n = 946 EOCs revealed BRCA1/2 PVs in 125 samples (13%), only eight of which were found in non-HGSOC histotypes. Specifically, BRCA1/2 PVs were identified in high-grade endometrioid (3/20; 15%), low-grade endometrioid (1/40; 2.5%), low-grade serous (3/67; 4.5%), and clear cell (1/64; 1.6%) EOCs. No PVs were identified in any mucinous ovarian carcinomas tested. By re-evaluation and using loss of heterozygosity and homologous recombination deficiency analyses, we then assessed: (1) whether the eight ‘anomalous’ cases were potentially histologically misclassified and (2) whether the identified variants were likely causal in carcinogenesis. The first ‘anomalous’ non-HGSOC with a BRCA1/2 PV proved to be a misdiagnosed HGSOC. Next, germline BRCA2 variants, found in two p53-abnormal high-grade endometrioid tumours, showed substantial evidence supporting causality. One additional, likely causal variant, found in a p53-wildtype low-grade serous ovarian carcinoma, was of somatic origin. The remaining cases showed retention of the BRCA1/2 wildtype allele, suggestive of non-causal secondary passenger variants. We conclude that likely causal BRCA1/2 variants are present in high-grade endometrioid tumours but are absent from the other EOC histotypes tested. Although the findings require validation, these results seem to justify a transition from universal to histotype-directed sequencing. Furthermore, in-depth functional analysis of tumours harbouring BRCA1/2 variants combined with detailed revision of cancer histotypes can serve as a model in other BRCA1/2-related cancers. Molecular tumour pathology - and tumour genetic