Scenario trees and policy selection for multistage stochastic programming using machine learning

We propose a hybrid algorithmic strategy for complex stochastic optimization problems, which combines the use of scenario trees from multistage stochastic programming with machine learning techniques for learning a policy in the form of a statistical model, in the context of constrained vector-valued decisions. Such a policy allows one to run out-of-sample simulations over a large number of independent scenarios, and obtain a signal on the quality of the approximation scheme used to solve the multistage stochastic program. We propose to apply this fast simulation technique to choose the best tree from a set of scenario trees. A solution scheme is introduced, where several scenario trees with random branching structure are solved in parallel, and where the tree from which the best policy for the true problem could be learned is ultimately retained. Numerical tests show that excellent trade-offs can be achieved between run times and solution quality

Congenital cardiovascular defects in children with intestinal malrotation

Intestinal malrotation (IM) and cardiovascular defects (CCVD) are both common congenital defects. We investigated the prevalence and types of CCVD in a 25-year IM population, and its association with post-IM-operative morbidity and mortality. Data on the type of CCVD, other congenital defects, syndromes, associations, post-IM-operative morbidity and mortality were retrospectively reviewed from the records of IM patients born between 1980 and 2005. Data were analyzed on (significant) differences between CCVD subgroups, and risk factors for both morbidity and mortality were calculated. Seventy-seven of 284 IM patients (27.1%) were diagnosed with a major or minor CCVD (37 and 40 patients, respectively). Syndromes and associations were more frequently diagnosed in patients with major than with a minor CCVD (67.6 vs. 40%, respectively). Post-IM-operative complications, although frequently observed (61%), did not differ between patients with major and minor CCVD. Physical CCVD signs before IM surgery increased post-IM-operative morbidity significantly (OR 4.0, 95% CI 1.4–11.0). Fifteen patients died (19.5%), seven due to cardiovascular cause. Mortality risk was increased by intestinal ischemia and post-IM-operative complications and by major CCVD after correction for age at weight at the time of IM operation. Congenital cardiovascular defects in children with intestinal malrotation are common, with high morbidity and mortality rates after IM operation. Elective IM surgery in young patients with CCVD should be performed in a centre with adequate paediatric cardiac care. Benefits of laparoscopic intervention need further study

Nijmegen paediatric CDG rating scale: a novel tool to assess disease progression

Congenital disorders of glycosylation (CDG) are a group of clinically heterogeneous inborn errors of metabolism. At present, treatment is available for only one CDG, but potential treatments for the other CDG are on the horizon. It will be vitally important in clinical trials of such agents to have a clear understanding of both the natural history of CDG and the corresponding burden of disability suffered by patients. To date, no multicentre studies have attempted to document the natural history of CDG. This is in part due to the lack of a reliable assessment tool to score CDG’s diverse clinical spectrum. Based on our earlier experience evaluating disease progression in disorders of oxidative phosphorylation, we developed a practical and semi-quantitative rating scale for children with CDG. The Nijmegen Paediatric CDG Rating Scale (NPCRS) has been validated in 12 children, offering a tool to objectively monitor disease progression. We undertook a successful trial of the NPCRS with a collaboration of nine experienced physicians, using video records of physical and neurological examination of patients. The use of NPCRS can facilitate both longitudinal and natural history studies that will be essential for future interventions

Metabolic cutis laxa syndromes

Cutis laxa is a rare skin disorder characterized by wrinkled, redundant, inelastic and sagging skin due to defective synthesis of elastic fibers and other proteins of the extracellular matrix. Wrinkled, inelastic skin occurs in many cases as an acquired condition. Syndromic forms of cutis laxa, however, are caused by diverse genetic defects, mostly coding for structural extracellular matrix proteins. Surprisingly a number of metabolic disorders have been also found to be associated with inherited cutis laxa. Menkes disease was the first metabolic disease reported with old-looking, wrinkled skin. Cutis laxa has recently been found in patients with abnormal glycosylation. The discovery of the COG7 defect in patients with wrinkled, inelastic skin was the first genetic link with the Congenital Disorders of Glycosylation (CDG). Since then several inborn errors of metabolism with cutis laxa have been described with variable severity. These include P5CS, ATP6V0A2-CDG and PYCR1 defects. In spite of the evolving number of cutis laxa-related diseases a large part of the cases remain genetically unsolved. In metabolic cutis laxa syndromes the clinical and laboratory features might partially overlap, however there are some distinct, discriminative features. In this review on metabolic diseases causing cutis laxa we offer a practical approach for the differential diagnosis of metabolic cutis laxa syndromes

Effect of Sub-Lethal Exposure to Ultraviolet Radiation on the Escape Performance of Atlantic Cod Larvae (Gadus morhua)

The amount of ultraviolet (UV) radiation reaching the earth's surface has increased due to depletion of the ozone layer. Several studies have reported that UV radiation reduces survival of fish larvae. However, indirect and sub-lethal impacts of UV radiation on fish behavior have been given little consideration. We observed the escape performance of larval cod (24 dph, SL: 7.6±0.2 mm; 29 dph, SL: 8.2±0.3 mm) that had been exposed to sub-lethal levels of UV radiation vs. unexposed controls. Two predators were used (in separate experiments): two-spotted goby (Gobiusculus flavescens; a suction predator) and lion's mane jellyfish (Cyanea capillata; a “passive" ambush predator). Ten cod larvae were observed in the presence of a predator for 20 minutes using a digital video camera. Trials were replicated 4 times for goby and 5 times for jellyfish. Escape rate (total number of escapes/total number of attacks ×100), escape distance and the number of larvae remaining at the end of the experiment were measured. In the experiment with gobies, in the UV-treated larvae, both escape rate and escape distance (36%, 38±7.5 mm respectively) were significantly lower than those of control larvae (75%, 69±4.7 mm respectively). There was a significant difference in survival as well (UV: 35%, Control: 63%). No apparent escape response was observed, and survival rate was not significantly different, between treatments (UV: 66%, Control: 74%) in the experiment with jellyfish. We conclude that the effect and impact of exposure to sub-lethal levels of UV radiation on the escape performance of cod larvae depends on the type of predator. Our results also suggest that prediction of UV impacts on fish larvae based only on direct effects are underestimations

Grazing Rates of Calanus finmarchicus on Thalassiosira weissflogii Cultured under Different Levels of Ultraviolet Radiation

UVB alters photosynthetic rate, fatty acid profiles and morphological characteristics of phytoplankton. Copepods, important grazers of primary production, select algal cells based upon their size, morphological traits, nutritional status, and motility. We investigated the grazing rates of the copepod Calanus finmarchicus on the diatom Thalassiosira weissflogii cultured under 3 levels of ultraviolet radiation (UVR): photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) only (4 kJ-m−2/day), and PAR supplemented with UVR radiation at two intensities (24 kJ-m−2/day and 48 kJ-m−2/day). There was no significant difference in grazing rates between the PAR only treatment and the lower UVR treatment. However, grazing rates were significantly (∼66%) higher for copepods feeding on cells treated with the higher level of UVR. These results suggest that a short-term increase in UVR exposure results in a significant increase in the grazing rate of copepods and, thereby, potentially alters the flow rate of organic matter through this component of the ecosystem