Patterns and correlates of claims for brown bear damage on a continental scale

Wildlife damage to human property threatens human-wildlife coexistence. Conflicts arising from wildlife damage in intensively managed landscapes often undermine conservation efforts, making damage mitigation and compensation of special concern for wildlife conservation. However, the mechanisms underlying the occurrence of damage and claims at large scales are still poorly understood. Here, we investigated the patterns of damage caused by brown bears Ursus arctos and its ecological and socio-economic correlates at a continental scale. We compiled information about compensation schemes across 26 countries in Europe in 2005-2012 and analysed the variation in the number of compensated claims in relation to (i) bear abundance, (ii) forest availability, (iii) human land use, (iv) management practices and (v) indicators of economic wealth. Most European countries have a posteriori compensation schemes based on damage verification, which, in many cases, have operated for more than 30 years. On average, over 3200 claims of bear damage were compensated annually in Europe. The majority of claims were for damage to livestock (59%), distributed throughout the bear range, followed by damage to apiaries (21%) and agriculture (17%), mainly in Mediterranean and eastern European countries. The mean number of compensated claims per bear and year ranged from 0·1 in Estonia to 8·5 in Norway. This variation was not only due to the differences in compensation schemes; damage claims were less numerous in areas with supplementary feeding and with a high proportion of agricultural land. However, observed variation in compensated damage was not related to bear abundance. Synthesis and applications. Compensation schemes, management practices and human land use influence the number of claims for brown bear damage, while bear abundance does not. Policies that ignore this complexity and focus on a single factor, such as bear population size, may not be effective in reducing claims. To be effective, policies should be based on integrative schemes that prioritize damage prevention and make it a condition of payment of compensation that preventive measures are applied. Such integrative schemes should focus mitigation efforts in areas or populations where damage claims are more likely to occur. Similar studies using different species and continents might further improve our understanding of conflicts arising from wildlife damage

Report 36: Modelling ICU capacity under different epidemiological scenarios of the COVID-19 pandemic in three western European countries

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has placed enormous strain on healthcare systems, particularly intensive care units (ICUs), with COVID-19 patient care being a key concern of healthcare system planning for winter 2020/21. Ensuring that all patients who require intensive care, irrespective of COVID-19 status, can access it during this time is essential. This study uses an integrated model of hospital capacity planning and epidemiological projections of COVID-19 patients to estimate the spare capacity of key ICU resources under different epidemic scenarios in France, Germany and Italy across the winter period of 2020/21. In particular, we examine the effect of implementing suppression strategies of varying effectiveness, triggered by different numbers of COVID-19 patients in ICU. The use of a ‘dual-demand’ (COVID-19 and non-COVID-19) patient model and the consideration of multiple ICU resources that determine capacity (beds, doctors, nurses and ventilators) and the interdependencies between them, provides a detailed insight into potential capacity constraints this winter. Without sufficient mitigation, we estimate that COVID-19 ICU patient numbers will exceed those seen in the first peak, resulting in substantial capacity deficits, with beds being consistently found to be the most constrained resource across countries. Lockdowns triggered based on ICU capacity could lead to large improvements in spare capacity during the winter season, with pressure being most effectively alleviated when lockdown is triggered early and implemented at a higher level of suppression. In many cases, maximum deficits are reduced to lower levels which can then be managed by expanding supply-side hospital capacity, to ensure that all patients can receive treatment. The success of such interventions also depends on baseline ICU bed numbers and average non-COVID-19 patient occupancy. We find that lockdowns of longer duration reduce the total number of days in deficit, but triggering lockdown earlier when COVID-19 ICU occupancy is lower is more effective in minimising deficits. Our results highlight the dependencies between different metrics, suggesting that absolute benefits of different strategies must be weighed against the feasibility and drawbacks of different amounts of time spent in lockdown

Characterising the intensity of insecticide resistance: A novel framework for analysis of intensity bioassay data

Insecticide resistance is a growing problem that risks harming the progress made by vector control tools in reducing the malaria burden globally. New methods for quantifying the extent of resistance in wild populations are urgently needed to guide deployment of interventions to improve disease control. Intensity bioassays measure mosquito mortality at a range of insecticide doses and characterise phenotypic resistance in regions where resistance is already detected. These data are increasingly being collected but tend to exhibit high measurement error and there is a lack of formal guidelines on how they should be analysed or compared. This paper introduces a novel Bayesian framework for analysing intensity bioassay data, which uses a flexible statistical model able to capture a wide variety of relationships between mortality and insecticide dose. By accounting for background mortality of mosquitoes, our approach minimises the impact of this source of measurement noise resulting in more precise quantification of resistance. It outputs a range of metrics for describing the intensity and variability in resistance within the sample and quantifies the level of measurement error in the assay. The functionality is illustrated with data from laboratory-reared mosquitoes to show how the lethal dose varies within and between different strains. The framework can also be used to formally test hypotheses by explicitly considering the high heterogeneity seen in these types of data in field samples. Here we show that the intensity of resistance (as measured by the median lethal dose (LC50) of insecticide) increases over 7 years in mosquitoes from one village in Burkina Faso but remains constant in another. This work showcases the benefits of statistically rigorous analysis of insecticide bioassay data and highlights the additional information available from this and other dose-response data

Report 17: Clinical characteristics and predictors of outcomes of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 in a London NHS Trust: a retrospective cohort study

Clinical characteristics and determinants of outcomes for hospitalised COVID-19 patients in the UK remain largely undescribed and emerging evidence suggests ethnic minorities might be disproportionately affected. We describe the characteristics and outcomes of patients hospitalised for COVID-19 in three large London hospitals with a multi-ethnic catchment population. We performed a retrospective cohort study on all patients hospitalised with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection at Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust between February 25 and April 5, 2020. Outcomes were recorded as of April 19, 2020. Logistic regression models, survival analyses and cumulative competing risk analyses were performed to evaluate factors associated with COVID-19 hospital mortality. Of 520 patients in this cohort (median age 67 years, (IQR 26) and 62% male), 302 (68%) had been discharged alive, 144 (32%) died and 74 (14%) were still hospitalised at the time of censoring. Increasing age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2·16, 95%CI 1·50-3·12), severe hypoxia (aOR 3·75, 95%CI 1·80-7·80), low platelets (aOR 0·65, 95%CI 0.49·0·85), reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (aOR 4·11, 95%CI 1·58-10·69), bilirubin >21mmol/L (aOR 2·32, 95%CI 1·05-5·14) and low albumin (aOR 0·77, 9%%CI 0·59-1·01) were associated with increased risk of in-hospital mortality. Individual comorbidities were not independently associated with risk of death. Regarding ethnicity, 209 (40%) were from a black and Asian minority, for 115 (22%) ethnicity was unknown and 196 (38%) patients were white. Compared to the latter, black patients were significantly younger and had less comorbidities. Whilst the crude OR of death of black compared to white patients was not significant (1·14, 95%CI 0·69-1·88, p=0.62), adjusting for age and comorbidity showed a trend towards significance (aOR 1·72, 95%CI 0·98-3·02, p=0.06) and further accounting for admission severity (Early Warning Score) showed a significant difference (aOR 1·83 95% CI 1·02-3·30, p=0.04). In the first study to describe the characteristics and predictors of outcome for hospitalised COVID-19 patients in the UK, we find that older age, male sex and admission hypoxia, thrombocytopenia, renal failure, hypoalbuminaemia and raised bilirubin are associated with increased odds of death. Ethnic minority groups were over-represented in our cohort and, compared to whites, people of black ethnicity may be at increased odds of mortality. Further research is urgently needed to investigate these associations on a larger scale

The AIRE-230Y Polymorphism Affects AIRE Transcriptional Activity: Potential Influence on AIRE Function in the Thymus

Background The autoimmune regulator (AIRE) is expressed in the thymus, particularly in thymic medullary epithelial cells (mTECs), and is required for the ectopic expression of a diverse range of peripheral tissue antigens by mTECs, facilitating their ability to perform negative selection of auto-reactive immature T-cells. The expression profile of peripheral tissue antigens is affected not only by AIRE deficiency but also with variation of AIRE activity in the thymus. Method and Results Therefore we screened 591bp upstream of the AIRE transcription start site including AIRE minimal promoter for single nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs) and identified two SNPs -655R (rs117557896) and -230Y (rs751032) respectively. To study the effect of these variations on AIRE promoter activity we generated a Flp-In host cell line which was stably transfected with a single copy of the reporter vector. Relative promoter activity was estimated by comparing the luciferase specific activity for lysates of the different reporter AIRE promoterreporter gene constructs including AIRE-655G AIRE-230C, AIRE-655G AIRE-230T and AIRE-655A AIRE-230C. The analysis showed that the commonest haplotype AIRE-655G AIRE-230C has the highest luciferase specific activity (p<0.001). Whereas AIRE-655G AIRE-230T has a luciferase specific activity value that approaches null. Both AIRE promoter polymorphic sites have one allele that forms a CpG methylation site which we determined can be methylated in methylation assays using the M.SssI CpG methyltransferase. Conclusion AIRE-230Y is in a conserved region of the promoter and is adjacent to a predicted WT1 transcription factor binding site, suggesting that AIRE-230Y affects AIRE expression by influencing the binding of biochemical factors to this region. Our findings show that AIRE655GAIRE-230T haplotype could dramatically alter AIRE transcription and so have an effect on the process of negative selection and affect susceptibility to autoimmune conditions

Evaluation of three instrumentation techniques at the precision of apical stop and apical sealing of obturation

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate the ability of two NiTi rotary apical preparation techniques used with an electronic apex locator-integrated endodontic motor and a manual technique to create an apical stop at a predetermined level (0.5 mm short of the apical foramen) in teeth with disrupted apical constriction, and to evaluate microleakage following obturation in such prepared teeth. MATERIAL AND METHODS: 85 intact human mandibular permanent incisors with single root canal were accessed and the apical constriction was disrupted using a #25 K-file. The teeth were embedded in alginate and instrumented to #40 using rotary Lightspeed or S-Apex techniques or stainless-steel K-files. Distance between the apical foramen and the created apical stop was measured to an accuracy of 0.01 mm. In another set of instrumented teeth, root canals were obturated using gutta-percha and sealer, and leakage was tested at 1 week and 3 months using a fluid filtration device. RESULTS: All techniques performed slightly short of the predetermined level. Closest preparation to the predetermined level was with the manual technique and the farthest was with S-Apex. A significant difference was found between the performances of these two techniques (

Human disturbance is the most limiting factor driving habitat selection of a large carnivore throughout Continental Europe

Habitat selection is a multi-scale process driven by trade-offs between benefits, such as resource abundance, and disadvantages, such as the avoidance of risk. The latter includes human disturbances, to which large carnivores, with their large spatial requirements, are especially sensitive. We investigated the ecological processes underlying multi-scale habitat selection of a large carnivore, namely Eurasian lynx, across European landscapes characterized by different levels of human modification. Using a unique dataset of 125 lynx from 9 study sites across Europe, we compared used and available locations within landscape and home-range scales using a novel Mixed Effect randomForest approach, while considering environmental predictors as proxies for human disturbances and environmental resources. At the landscape scale, lynx avoided roads and human settlements, while at the home-range scale natural landscape features associated with shelter and prey abundance were more important. The results showed sex was of relatively low variable importance for lynx's general habitat selection behaviour. We found increasingly homogeneous responses across study sites with finer selection scales, suggesting that study site differences determined coarse selection, while utilization of resources at the finer selection scale was broadly universal. Thereby describing lynx's requirement, if not preference, for heterogeneous forests and shelter from human disturbances and implying that regional differences in coarse-scale selection are driven by availability rather than preference. These results provide crucial information for conserving this species in human-dominated landscapes, as well as for the first time, to our knowledge, generalising habitat selection behaviour of a large carnivore species at a continental scale.acceptedVersio

Elevated atmospheric CO2 and humidity delay leaf fall in Betula pendula, but not in Alnus glutinosa or Populus tremula × tremuloides

Context: Anthropogenic activity has increased the level of atmospheric CO2, which is driving an increase of global temperatures and associated changes in precipitation patterns. At Northern latitudes, one of the likely consequences of global warming is increased precipitation and air humidity. Aims: In this work, the effects of both elevated atmospheric CO2 and increased air humidity on trees commonly growing in northern European forests were assessed. Methods: The work was carried out under field conditions by using Free Air Carbon dioxide Enrichment (FACE) and Free Air Humidity Manipulation (FAHM) systems. Leaf litter fall was measured over 4 years (FACE) or 5 years (FAHM) to determine the effects of FACE and FAHM on leaf phenology. Results: Increasing air humidity delayed leaf litter fall in Betula pendula, but not in Populus tremula × tremuloides. Similarly, under elevated atmospheric CO2, leaf litter fall was delayed in Betula pendula, but not in Alnus glutinosa. Increased CO2 appeared to interact with periods of low precipitation in summer and high ozone levels during these periods to effect leaf fall. Conclusions: This work shows that increased CO2 and humidity delay leaf fall, but this effect is species specific

A new WHO bottle bioassay method to assess the susceptibility of mosquito vectors to public health insecticides: results from a WHO-coordinated multi-centre study

BACKGROUND: The continued spread of insecticide resistance in mosquito vectors of malaria and arboviral diseases may lead to operational failure of insecticide-based interventions if resistance is not monitored and managed efficiently. This study aimed to develop and validate a new WHO glass bottle bioassay method as an alternative to the WHO standard insecticide tube test to monitor mosquito susceptibility to new public health insecticides with particular modes of action, physical properties or both. METHODS: A multi-centre study involving 21 laboratories worldwide generated data on the susceptibility of seven mosquito species (Aedes aegypti, Aedes albopictus, Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto [An. gambiae s.s.], Anopheles funestus, Anopheles stephensi, Anopheles minimus and Anopheles albimanus) to seven public health insecticides in five classes, including pyrethroids (metofluthrin, prallethrin and transfluthrin), neonicotinoids (clothianidin), pyrroles (chlorfenapyr), juvenile hormone mimics (pyriproxyfen) and butenolides (flupyradifurone), in glass bottle assays. The data were analysed using a Bayesian binomial model to determine the concentration-response curves for each insecticide-species combination and to assess the within-bioassay variability in the susceptibility endpoints, namely the concentration that kills 50% and 99% of the test population (LC50 and LC99, respectively) and the concentration that inhibits oviposition of the test population by 50% and 99% (OI50 and OI99), to measure mortality and the sterilizing effect, respectively. RESULTS: Overall, about 200,000 mosquitoes were tested with the new bottle bioassay, and LC50/LC99 or OI50/OI99 values were determined for all insecticides. Variation was seen between laboratories in estimates for some mosquito species-insecticide combinations, while other test results were consistent. The variation was generally greater with transfluthrin and flupyradifurone than with the other compounds tested, especially against Anopheles species. Overall, the mean within-bioassay variability in mortality and oviposition inhibition were < 10% for most mosquito species-insecticide combinations. CONCLUSION: Our findings, based on the largest susceptibility dataset ever produced on mosquitoes, showed that the new WHO bottle bioassay is adequate for evaluating mosquito susceptibility to new and promising public health insecticides currently deployed for vector control. The datasets presented in this study have been used recently by the WHO to establish 17 new insecticide discriminating concentrations (DCs) for either Aedes spp. or Anopheles spp. The bottle bioassay and DCs can now be widely used to monitor baseline insecticide susceptibility of wild populations of vectors of malaria and Aedes-borne diseases worldwide