The Relative Importance of Clinical, Economic, Patient Values and Feasibility Criteria in Cancer Drug Reimbursement in Canada:A Revealed Preferences Analysis of Recommendations of the Pan-Canadian Oncology Drug Review 2011–2017

Background: Most Canadian provinces and territories rely on the pan-Canadian Oncology Drug Review (pCODR) to provide recommendations regarding public reimbursement of cancer drugs. The pCODR review process considers four dimensions of value—clinical benefit, economic evaluation, patient-based values and adoption feasibility—but they do not define weights for individual decision criteria or an acceptable threshold for any of the criteria. Given this implicit review process, it is of interest to understand which factors appear to carry the most weight in pCODR recommendations using a revealed preferences approach. Methods: Using publicly available decision summaries (n = 91) describing submissions and resulting recommendations 2011–2017, we extracted ten attributes that characterized each submission. Using logistic regression, we identified statistically significant attributes and estimated their relative impact in final recommendations. Results: Clinical aspects appear to carry the greatest weight in the decision to reject or not reject, along with aspects of patient value (treatments with no alternatives were less likely to be rejected). Cost effectiveness does not appear to play a role in the initial decision to reject or not reject but is critical in full versus conditional approvals. There is evidence of a maximum acceptable threshold of around $Can140,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Conclusion: A set of factors driving pCODR recommendations is identifiable, supporting the consistency of the review process. However, the implicit nature of the review process and the difficulty of extracting and interpreting some of the attribute levels used in the analysis suggests that the process may still lack full transparency

Adaptive Sampling of Information in Perceptual Decision-Making

In many perceptual and cognitive decision-making problems, humans sample multiple noisy information sources serially, and integrate the sampled information to make an overall decision. We derive the optimal decision procedure for two-alternative choice tasks in which the different options are sampled one at a time, sources vary in the quality of the information they provide, and the available time is fixed. To maximize accuracy, the optimal observer allocates time to sampling different information sources in proportion to their noise levels. We tested human observers in a corresponding perceptual decision-making task. Observers compared the direction of two random dot motion patterns that were triggered only when fixated. Observers allocated more time to the noisier pattern, in a manner that correlated with their sensory uncertainty about the direction of the patterns. There were several differences between the optimal observer predictions and human behaviour. These differences point to a number of other factors, beyond the quality of the currently available sources of information, that influences the sampling strategy

Developmental Stability Covaries with Genome-Wide and Single-Locus Heterozygosity in House Sparrows

Fluctuating asymmetry (FA), a measure of developmental instability, has been hypothesized to increase with genetic stress. Despite numerous studies providing empirical evidence for associations between FA and genome-wide properties such as multi-locus heterozygosity, support for single-locus effects remains scant. Here we test if, and to what extent, FA co-varies with single- and multilocus markers of genetic diversity in house sparrow (Passer domesticus) populations along an urban gradient. In line with theoretical expectations, FA was inversely correlated with genetic diversity estimated at genome level. However, this relationship was largely driven by variation at a single key locus. Contrary to our expectations, relationships between FA and genetic diversity were not stronger in individuals from urban populations that experience higher nutritional stress. We conclude that loss of genetic diversity adversely affects developmental stability in P. domesticus, and more generally, that the molecular basis of developmental stability may involve complex interactions between local and genome-wide effects. Further study on the relative effects of single-locus and genome-wide effects on the developmental stability of populations with different genetic properties is therefore needed