Vaccine Effects on Heterogeneity in Susceptibility and Implications for Population Health Management

Heterogeneity in host susceptibility is a key determinant of infectious disease dynamics but is rarely accounted for in assessment of disease control measures. Understanding how susceptibility is distributed in populations, and how control measures change this distribution, is integral to predicting the course of epidemics with and without interventions. Using multiple experimental and modeling approaches, we show that rainbow trout have relatively homogeneous susceptibility to infection with infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus and that vaccination increases heterogeneity in susceptibility in a nearly all-or-nothing fashion. In a simple transmission model with an R-0 of 2, the highly heterogeneous vaccine protection would cause a 35 percentage-point reduction in outbreak size over an intervention inducing homogenous protection at the same mean level. More broadly, these findings provide validation of methodology that can help to reduce biases in predictions of vaccine impact in natural settings and provide insight into how vaccination shapes population susceptibility. IMPORTANCE Differences among individuals influence transmission and spread of infectious diseases as well as the effectiveness of control measures. Control measures, such as vaccines, may provide leaky protection, protecting all hosts to an identical degree, or all-or-nothing protection, protecting some hosts completely while leaving others completely unprotected. This distinction can have a dramatic influence on disease dynamics, yet this distribution of protection is frequently unaccounted for in epidemiological models and estimates of vaccine efficacy. Here, we apply new methodology to experimentally examine host heterogeneity in susceptibility and mode of vaccine action as distinct components influencing disease outcome. Through multiple experiments and new modeling approaches, we show that the distribution of vaccine effects can be robustly estimated. These results offer new experimental and inferential methodology that can improve predictions of vaccine effectiveness and have broad applicability to human, wildlife, and ecosystem health

Moving Beyond Too Little, Too Late: Managing Emerging Infectious Diseases in Wild Populations Requires International Policy and Partnerships

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The Winter Worries of Bats : Past and Present Perspectives on Winter Habitat and Management of Cave Hibernating Bats

Winter is a time of fascinating changes in biology for cave-hibernating bats, but it is also a time of vulnerability. Unsurprisingly, assessments of winter habitat for these mammals and how it can be managed have been a focus of many researchers involved with the North American Society for Bat Research over the last 50 years. Over this time, a paradigm shift has occurred in the way scientists think about factors driving selection of winter habitat, especially temperature. To illustrate this change, we review three hypotheses seeking to explain microclimate selection in cavernicolous bats. The first, which we call the “Colder is Better Hypothesis,” posits that bats should select cold microclimates that minimize energy expenditure. The “Hibernation Optimization Hypothesis” suggests that bats should select microclimates that reduce expression of torpor to balance energy conservation against non-energetic costs of hibernation. Finally, the “Thrifty Female Hypothesis” asserts that females should select colder microclimates than males to conserve energy for reproduction. We discuss these hypotheses and the shift from viewing hibernation as a phenomenon driven solely by the need to conserve energy in the context of hibernacula management in North America. We focus on both historical and recent conservation threats, most notably alteration of thermal regimes and the disease white-nose syndrome. We urge against returning to an over-simplified view of winter habitat selection in response to our current conservation challenges.Peer reviewe

Remodelling selection to optimise disease forecasts and policies

Abstract Mathematical models are increasingly adopted for setting disease prevention and control targets. As model-informed policies are implemented, however, the inaccuracies of some forecasts become apparent, for example overprediction of infection burdens and intervention impacts. Here, we attribute these discrepancies to methodological limitations in capturing the heterogeneities of real-world systems. The mechanisms underpinning risk factors of infection and their interactions determine individual propensities to acquire disease. These factors are potentially so numerous and complex that to attain a full mechanistic description is likely unfeasible. To contribute constructively to the development of health policies, model developers either leave factors out (reductionism) or adopt a broader but coarse description (holism). In our view, predictive capacity requires holistic descriptions of heterogeneity which are currently underutilised in infectious disease epidemiology, in comparison to other population disciplines, such as non-communicable disease epidemiology, demography, ecology and evolution.</jats:p

Little Brown Myotis Persist Despite Exposure to White-Nose Syndrome

We monitored a maternity colony of little brown myotis Myotis lucifugus on Fort Drum Military Installation in northern New York in 2009 and 2010 for impacts associated with white-nose syndrome. Declines in colony numbers presumed to be caused by white-nose syndrome were initially discovered in the spring 2009. Although colony numbers have continued to decline, we determined that a minimum of 12 individual banded female little brown myotis survived over multiple years despite exposure to white-nose syndrome. Our results also provide evidence that 14 of 20 recaptured female little brown myotis were able to heal from wing damage and infection associated with white-nose syndrome within a given year, and seven of eight recaptures from within both 2009 and 2010 showed evidence of reproduction

Drivers of variation in species impacts for a multi-host fungal disease of bats

Disease can play an important role in structuring species communities because the effects of disease vary among hosts; some species are driven towards extinction, while others suffer relatively little impact. Why disease impacts vary among host species remains poorly understood for most multi-host pathogens, and factors allowing less-susceptible species to persist could be useful in conserving highly affected species. White-nose syndrome (WNS), an emerging fungal disease of bats, has decimated some species while sympatric and closely related species have experienced little effect. We analysed data on infection prevalence, fungal loads and environmental factors to determine how variation in infection among sympatric host species influenced the severity of WNS population impacts. Intense transmission resulted in almost uniformly high prevalence in all species. By contrast, fungal loads varied over 3 orders of magnitude among species, and explained 98% of the variation among species in disease impacts. Fungal loads increased with hibernating roosting temperatures, with bats roosting at warmer temperatures having higher fungal loads and suffering greater WNS impacts. We also found evidence of a threshold fungal load, above which the probability of mortality may increase sharply, and this threshold was similar for multiple species. This study demonstrates how differences in behavioural traits among species—in this case microclimate preferences—that may have been previously adaptive can be deleterious after the introduction of a new pathogen. Management to reduce pathogen loads rather than exposure may be an effective way of reducing disease impact and preventing species extinctions

Efficacy of Visual Surveys for White-Nose Syndrome at Bat Hibernacula

White-Nose Syndrome (WNS) is an epizootic disease in hibernating bats caused by the fungus Pseudogymnoascus destructans. Surveillance for P. destructans at bat hibernacula consists primarily of visual surveys of bats, collection of potentially infected bats, and submission of these bats for laboratory testing. Cryptic infections (bats that are infected but display no visual signs of fungus) could lead to the mischaracterization of the infection status of a site and the inadvertent spread of P. destructans. We determined the efficacy of visual detection of P. destructans by examining visual signs and molecular detection of P. destructans on 928 bats of six species at 27 sites during surveys conducted from January through March in 2012-2014 in the southeastern USA on the leading edge of the disease invasion. Cryptic infections were widespread with 77% of bats that tested positive by qPCR showing no visible signs of infection. The probability of exhibiting visual signs of infection increased with sampling date and pathogen load, the latter of which was substantially higher in three species (Myotis lucifugus, M. septentrionalis, and Perimyotis subflavus). In addition, M. lucifugus was more likely to show visual signs of infection than other species given the same pathogen load. Nearly all infections were cryptic in three species (Eptesicus fuscus, M. grisescens, and M. sodalis), which had much lower fungal loads. The presence of M. lucifugus or M. septentrionalis at a site increased the probability that P. destructans was visually detected on bats. Our results suggest that cryptic infections of P. destructans are common in all bat species, and visible infections rarely occur in some species. However, due to very high infection prevalence and loads in some species, we estimate that visual surveys examining at least 17 individuals of M. lucifugus and M. septentrionalis, or 29 individuals of P. subflavus are still effective to determine whether a site has bats infected with P. destructans. In addition, because the probability of visually detecting the fungus was higher later in winter, surveys should be done as close to the end of the hibernation period as possible