Separating sensitivity from exposure in assessing extinction risk from climate change

Predictive frameworks of climate change extinction risk generally focus on the magnitude of climate change a species is expected to experience and the potential for that species to track suitable climate. A species’ risk of extinction from climate change will depend, in part, on the magnitude of climate change the species experiences, its exposure. However, exposure is only one component of risk. A species’ risk of extinction will also depend on its intrinsic ability to tolerate changing climate, its sensitivity. We examine exposure and sensitivity individually for two example taxa, terrestrial amphibians and mammals. We examine how these factors are related among species and across regions and how explicit consideration of each component of risk may affect predictions of climate change impacts. We find that species’ sensitivities to climate change are not congruent with their exposures. Many highly sensitive species face low exposure to climate change and many highly exposed species are relatively insensitive. Separating sensitivity from exposure reveals patterns in the causes and drivers of species’ extinction risk that may not be evident solely from predictions of climate change. Our findings emphasise the importance of explicitly including sensitivity and exposure to climate change in assessments of species’ extinction risk

The influence of soil communities on the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration

Soil respiration represents a major carbon flux between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere, and is expected to accelerate under climate warming. Despite its importance in climate change forecasts, however, our understanding of the effects of temperature on soil respiration (RS) is incomplete. Using a metabolic ecology approach we link soil biota metabolism, community composition and heterotrophic activity, to predict RS rates across five biomes. We find that accounting for the ecological mechanisms underpinning decomposition processes predicts climatological RS variations observed in an independent dataset (n = 312). The importance of community composition is evident because without it RS is substantially underestimated. With increasing temperature, we predict a latitudinal increase in RS temperature sensitivity, with Q10 values ranging between 2.33 ±0.01 in tropical forests to 2.72 ±0.03 in tundra. This global trend has been widely observed, but has not previously been linked to soil communities

Extreme rainfall events alter the trophic structure in bromeliad tanks across the Neotropics

Changes in global and regional precipitation regimes are among the most pervasive components of climate change. Intensification of rainfall cycles, ranging from frequent downpours to severe droughts, could cause widespread, but largely unknown, alterations to trophic structure and ecosystem function. We conducted multi-site coordinated experiments to show how variation in the quantity and evenness of rainfall modulates trophic structure in 210 natural freshwater microcosms (tank bromeliads) across Central and South America (18°N to 29°S). The biomass of smaller organisms (detritivores) was higher under more stable hydrological conditions. Conversely, the biomass of predators was highest when rainfall was uneven, resulting in top-heavy biomass pyramids. These results illustrate how extremes of precipitation, resulting in localized droughts or flooding, can erode the base of freshwater food webs, with negative implications for the stability of trophic dynamics

Minimum information about an uncultivated virus genome (MIUVIG)

This is the final version. Available on open access from Nature Research via the DOI in this recordNOTE: the full list of funders and grants is in the acknowledgements section of the articleWe present an extension of the Minimum Information about any (x) Sequence (MIxS) standard for reporting sequences of uncultivated virus genomes. Minimum Information about an Uncultivated Virus Genome (MIUViG) standards were developed within the Genomic Standards Consortium framework and include virus origin, genome quality, genome annotation, taxonomic classification, biogeographic distribution and in silico host prediction. Community-wide adoption of MIUViG standards, which complement the Minimum Information about a Single Amplified Genome (MISAG) and Metagenome-Assembled Genome (MIMAG) standards for uncultivated bacteria and archaea, will improve the reporting of uncultivated virus genomes in public databases. In turn, this should enable more robust comparative studies and a systematic exploration of the global virosphere.Simons Foundation InternationalNatural Environment Research Council (NERC

Plant–soil feedback of native and range-expanding plant species is insensitive to temperature

Temperature change affects many aboveground and belowground ecosystem processes. Here we investigate the effect of a 5°C temperature increase on plant–soil feedback. We compare plant species from a temperate climate region with immigrant plants that originate from warmer regions and have recently shifted their range polewards. We tested whether the magnitude of plant–soil feedback is affected by ambient temperature and whether the effect of temperature differs between these groups of plant species. Six European/Eurasian plant species that recently colonized the Netherlands (non-natives), and six related species (natives) from the Netherlands were selected. Plant–soil feedback of these species was determined by comparing performance in conspecific and heterospecific soils. In order to test the effect of temperature on these plant–soil feedback interactions, the experiments were performed at two greenhouse temperatures of 20/15°C and 25/20°C, respectively. Inoculation with unconditioned soil had the same effect on natives and non-natives. However, the effect of conspecific conditioned soil was negative compared to heterospecific soil for natives, but was positive for non-natives. In both cases, plant–soil interactions were not affected by temperature. Therefore, we conclude that the temperature component of climate change does not affect the direction, or strength of plant–soil feedback, neither for native nor for non-native plant species. However, as the non-natives have a more positive soil feedback than natives, climate warming may introduce new plant species in temperate regions that have less soil-borne control of abundance

Climate Change Alters Seedling Emergence and Establishment in an Old-Field Ecosystem

Background: Ecological succession drives large-scale changes in ecosystem composition over time, but the mechanisms whereby climatic change might alter succession remain unresolved. Here, we asked if the effects of atmospheric and climatic change would alter tree seedling emergence and establishment in an old-field ecosystem, recognizing that small shifts in rates of seedling emergence and establishment of different species may have long-term repercussions on the transition of fields to forests in the future. Methodology/Principal Findings: We introduced seeds from three early successional tree species into constructed old-field plant communities that had been subjected for 4 years to altered temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO 2 regimes in an experimental facility. Our experiment revealed that different combinations of atmospheric CO2 concentration, air temperature, and soil moisture altered seedling emergence and establishment. Treatments directly and indirectly affected soil moisture, which was the best predictor of seedling establishment, though treatment effects differed among species. Conclusions: The observed impacts, coupled with variations in the timing of seed arrival, are demonstrated as predictors o

Shrub Invasion Decreases Diversity and Alters Community Stability in Northern Chihuahuan Desert Plant Communities

BACKGROUND:Global climate change is rapidly altering species range distributions and interactions within communities. As ranges expand, invading species change interactions in communities which may reduce stability, a mechanism known to affect biodiversity. In aridland ecosystems worldwide, the range of native shrubs is expanding as they invade and replace native grassland vegetation with significant consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. METHODOLOGY:We used two long-term data sets to determine the effects of shrub encroachment by Larrea tridentata on subdominant community composition and stability in formerly native perennial grassland dominated by Bouteloua eriopoda in New Mexico, USA. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:Our results indicated that Larrea invasion decreased species richness during the last 100 years. We also found that over shorter temporal scales species-poor subdominant communities in areas invaded by Larrea were less stable (more variable in time) compared to species rich communities in grass-dominated vegetation. Compositional stability increased as cover of Bouteloua increased and decreased as cover of Larrea increased. SIGNIFICANCE:Changes in community stability due to altered interspecific interactions may be one mechanism by which biodiversity declines in grasslands following shrub invasion. As global warming increases, shrub encroachment into native grasslands worldwide will continue to alter species interactions and community stability both of which may lead to a decline in biodiversity

The response of temperate aquatic ecosystems to global warming: novel insights from a multidisciplinary project

This article serves as an introduction to this special issue of Marine Biology, but also as a review of the key findings of the AQUASHIFT research program which is the source of the articles published in this issue. AQUASHIFT is an interdisciplinary research program targeted to analyze the response of temperate zone aquatic ecosystems (both marine and freshwater) to global warming. The main conclusions of AQUASHIFT relate to (a) shifts in geographic distribution, (b) shifts in seasonality, (c) temporal mismatch in food chains, (d) biomass responses to warming, (e) responses of body size, (f) harmful bloom intensity, (f), changes of biodiversity, and (g) the dependence of shifts to temperature changes during critical seasonal windows

Bacterioplankton drawdown of coral mass-spawned organic matter

Coral reef ecosystems are highly sensitive to microbial activities that result from dissolved organic matter (DOM) enrichment of their surrounding seawater. However, the response to particulate organic matter (POM) enrichment is less studied. In a microcosm experiment, we tested the response of bacterioplankton to a pulse of POM from the mass-spawning of Orbicella franksi coral off the Caribbean coast of Panama. Particulate organic carbon (POC), a proxy measurement for POM, increased by 40-fold in seawater samples collected during spawning; 68% degraded within 66 h. The elevation of multiple hydrolases presumably solubilized the spawn-derived POM into DOM. A carbon budget constructed for the 275 µM of degraded POC showed negligible change to the concentration of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), indicating that the DOM was readily utilized. Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry shows that the DOM pool became enriched with heteroatom-containing molecules, a trend that suggests microbial alteration of organic matter. Our sensitivity analysis demonstrates that bacterial carbon demand could have accounted for a large proportion of the POC degradation. Further, using bromodeoxyuridine immunocapture in combination with 454 pyrosequencing of the 16S ribosomal RNA gene, we surmise that actively growing bacterial groups were the primary degraders. We conclude that coral gametes are highly labile to bacteria and that such large capacity for bacterial degradation and alteration of organic matter has implications for coral reef health and coastal marine biogeochemistry

Comparing biodiversity offset calculation methods with a case study in Uzbekistan

AbstractBiodiversity offsets are interventions that compensate for ecological losses caused by economic development, seeking ‘no net loss’ (NNL) of biodiversity overall. Calculating the ecological gains required to achieve NNL is non-trivial, with various methodologies available. To date, there has been no comparison among methodologies for a common case study. We use data on industrial impacts in Uzbekistan to provide such a comparison.We quantify losses from 40years of gas extraction, using empirical data on vegetation impacts alongside estimates of disruption to mammals. In doing so, we implement a novel technique by estimating spatial ‘functional forms’ of disturbance to calculate biodiversity impacts. We then use a range of offset methodologies to calculate the gains required to achieve NNL. This allows a crude comparison of the potential biodiversity outcomes of “in kind” offsets (here, vegetation restoration) with “out of kind” offsets (protecting fauna from poaching).We demonstrate that different methods for calculating the required offset activities result in divergent outcomes for biodiversity (expressed in habitat condition x area, or ‘weighted area’), and different trajectories in biodiversity outcomes over time. An Australian method is currently being considered for adoption in Uzbekistan, but we show that it would require careful adjustments to achieve NNL there.These findings highlight that the method used to quantify losses and gains strongly influences the biodiversity outcomes of offsetting, implying that offsets generated using different methodologies are not transferable between jurisdictions. Further, conservation gains from out of kind offsets may outweigh those from strict in kind NNL interpretations