Relationships between population spatial occupation and population dynamics

Population dynamics is commonly described non-spatially using parameters of population demography and vital traits. Population spatial organisation is therefore considered implicit and its importance in the population dynamics ignored. The present study evidences on a variety of stocks correlation between population spatial distribution indices, population abundance, recruitment and mortality. Series of research fisheries monitoring surveys were considered for a range of different stocks (cod, herring, anchovy, hake, mullet) in different regions of the North East Atlantic and Mediterranean (North Sea, Barents Sea, Baltic Sea, Bay of Biscay, Tyrrhenian Sea, Ionian Sea and Aegean Sea). For each population, each age and each year, 9 spatial indices were computed that characterised the spatial distribution in their centre of gravity, inertia, anisotropy, extension areas, number of patches and microscale structure. For each population and age, spatial indices were linearly regressed on the abundance, on the following recruitment, and on the mortality residuals (as a constant mortality has been fitted on cohort curves). A metaanalysis table was constructed that showed the number of times that correlations were significant. The result is that spatial indices provide additional indicators for assessing population status and could be helpful in the context of stock decline and habitat loss

Diel Variations in Survey Catch Rates and Survey Catchability of Spiny Dogfish and their Pelagic Prey in the Northeast US Continental Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem

This study examines the potential uncertainty in survey biomass estimates of Spiny Dogfish Squalus acanthias in the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem (NES LME). Diel catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) estimates are examined from the Northeast Fisheries Science Center bottom trawl surveys conducted during autumn (1963-2009) and spring (1968-2009). Influential environmental variables on survey catchability are identified for Spiny Dogfish life history stages and five pelagic prey species: Butterfish Peprilus triacanthus, Atlantic Herring Clupea harengus, shortfin squid Illex spp., longfin squid Doryteuthis spp., and Atlantic Mackerel Scomber scombrus. Daytime survey catchability was significantly higher than nighttime catchability for most species during autumn and for mature male Spiny Dogfish, shortfin squid, and longfin squid during spring in the NES LME. For most stages and species examined, breakpoint analyses identified significant increases in CPUE in the morning, peak CPUE during the day, and significant declines in CPUE in the late afternoon. Seasonal probabilities of daytime catch were largely driven by solar zenith angle for most species, with stronger trends identified during autumn. Unadjusted CPUE estimates appear to overestimate absolute abundance, with adjustments resulting in reductions in absolute abundance ranging from 41% for Spiny Dogfish to 91% for shortfin and longfin squids. These findings have important implications for Spiny Dogfish regarding estimates of population consumption of key pelagic prey species and their ecological footprint within the NES LME

A comparison of three indices of fishing power on some demersal fisheries of the North Sea

The scope of this study is to identify temporal dynamics in fishing power, by deriving three different indices (IFP1, IFP2, IFP3) based on three independent methods. IFP1 is derived from the GLM analysis of the relationship between fishing mortality and fishing effort, assuming that total fishing mortality estimates from XSA (eXtended Survivors Analysis) are accurate. IFP2 is derived from the GLM analysis of the difference between the Log-CPUE of a vessel and the average Log-CPUE of a set of reference vessels, which are chosen with regards to the stability of their Log-CPUE over time. IFP3 is derived from the GLM analysis of the Log-CPUE of a vessel relative to some external survey abundance index. Particular attention is paid to the horsepower and year effects in IFP1, IFP2, and IFP3. This methodology is applied to the Danish, Dutch, English and Norwegian demersal fisheries of the North Sea. The fishing power estimated by all indices increases with horsepower, particularly in relation to target species. Despite less consensus in the estimation of annual variations in fishing power, some important features are highlighted. First, there are cases where fishing power has consistently increased over the period of investigation, possibly through an overall increase in fishing efficiency. Second, there are examples where fishing power has increased relative to one species, and remained constant or even decreased in relation to another one. In the context of mixed-species fisheries, this feature might reveal a shift in fishing tactics. Copyright 2002 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved

Annual trends in catchability and fish stock assessments

A key assumption of many fish stock assessment models is that catchability is constant over time. We assume here that trends in catchability may occur through fishing power creeping. The tuning fleets, which are prone to fishing power development, may be identified using the "Hybrid" method. A range of catchability trends, including values derived from the "Hybrid" method, is then implemented to standardise the fishing effort of some tuning fleets used in the stock assessments performed by XSA (eXtended Survivors Analysis). Stocks being assessed are the North Sea cod, saithe, plaice and sole. The performances of the new and traditional XSA assessments are compared using criteria based on the precision of catchability estimates, stationarity of Log-catchability residuals and retrospective patterns relative to fishing mortality, spawning stock biomass and recruitment estimates. The performances of the North Sea cod, plaice and sole assessments could be enhanced by accounting for an overall annual increase in the catchability of some of the tuning fleets. No significant trends could be detected in the catchability of the tuning fleets relative to the assessment of the North Sea saithe. By contrast with the traditional assessment, the spawning biomass of cod is expected not to have increased between 1997 and 1998, while the fishing mortality of sole is expected to have increased over the same period

Annual trends in catchability and fish stock assessments

A key assumption of many fish stock assessment models is that catchability is constant over time. We assume here that trends in catchability may occur through fishing power creeping. The tuning fleets, which are prone to fishing power development, may be identified using the "Hybrid" method. A range of catchability trends, including values derived from the "Hybrid" method, is then implemented to standardise the fishing effort of some tuning fleets used in the stock assessments performed by XSA (eXtended Survivors Analysis). Stocks being assessed are the North Sea cod, saithe, plaice and sole. The performances of the new and traditional XSA assessments are compared using criteria based on the precision of catchability estimates, stationarity of Log-catchability residuals and retrospective patterns relative to fishing mortality, spawning stock biomass and recruitment estimates. The performances of the North Sea cod, plaice and sole assessments could be enhanced by accounting for an overall annual increase in the catchability of some of the tuning fleets. No significant trends could be detected in the catchability of the tuning fleets relative to the assessment of the North Sea saithe. By contrast with the traditional assessment, the spawning biomass of cod is expected not to have increased between 1997 and 1998, while the fishing mortality of sole is expected to have increased over the same period

An evaluation of the implicit management procedure used for some ICES roundfish stocks

This paper describes a simulation study that evaluated the performance of the scientific advisory process used by ICES to recommend total allowable catches (TACs) for roundfish stocks. A "management strategy evaluation" approach is used, involving development of an operating model to represent the underlying reality, and an observation model to generate pseudo data that are then used within a management procedure. The management procedure comprises an assessment that uses data to estimate parameters of interest and a decision rule to derive TAC recommendations for the following year. There are two important results: including realistic sources and levels of uncertainty can result in far from optimal management outcomes based on the current procedures; and current ICES biomass and fishing mortality reference points are not always consistent, and several are clearly inappropriate. This is because the types of projection used by ICES do not incorporate important lags between assessing stock status and implementing management measures, and they also ignore important sources of uncertainty about the actual dynamics, as well as our ability to collect data and implement management regulations (i.e. model, measurement, and implementation error, respectively). The simulation approach also showed that better management is not necessarily going to be achieved by improving the assessment, because even with a perfect assessment (where the simulated working group knew stock status perfectly), stocks may crash at fishing levels that standard stochastic projections would suggest were safe. It is proposed that, in future, operating models that represent the best available understanding of the actual system dynamics be used to evaluate models and rules considered for application. These operating models should capture the plausible range of characteristics of the underlying dynamics, but not necessarily model their full complexity. In general, they will be more complex than those used by assessment working groups, so developing management procedures that are robust to a broad range of uncertainty. However, the models and rules used as part of the management procedure should be simpler than those used at presen

An evaluation of the implicit management procedure for some ICES roundfish stocks.

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