On the Role of Global Warming on the Statistics of Record-Breaking Temperatures

We theoretically study long-term trends in the statistics of record-breaking daily temperatures and validate these predictions using Monte Carlo simulations and data from the city of Philadelphia, for which 126 years of daily temperature data is available. Using extreme statistics, we derive the number and the magnitude of record temperature events, based on the observed Gaussian daily temperatures distribution in Philadelphia, as a function of the number of elapsed years from the start of the data. We further consider the case of global warming, where the mean temperature systematically increases with time. We argue that the current warming rate is insufficient to measurably influence the frequency of record temperature events over the time range of the observations, a conclusion that is supported by numerical simulations and the Philadelphia temperature data.Comment: 11 pages, 6 figures, 2-column revtex4 format. For submission to Journal of Climate. Revised version has some new results and some errors corrected. Reformatted for Journal of Climate. Second revision has an added reference. In the third revision one sentence that explains the simulations is reworded for clarity. New revision 10/3/06 has considerable additions and new results. Revision on 11/8/06 contains a number of minor corrections and is the version that will appear in Phys. Rev.

Échange international et distorsions internes:Comment gouverner la globalisation ?

La concurrence des pays émergents de la taille de la Chine ou de l’Inde fait resurgir avec force le débat qui oppose partisans et adversaires du libre-échange au sein même des pays développés. Pour les premiers, la croissance du commerce international est forcément bénéficiaire pour tous. Pour les seconds, elle est la cause de tous les maux et en particulier du chômage. Les choses sont pourtant bien différentes et beaucoup moins simples. Les changements dans le commerce international, comme d’ailleurs le progrès technique, créent inévitablement des distorsions qui perturbent le fonctionnement de l’économie. Ces distorsions ne sont pas réductibles à des dysfonctionnements des marchés des biens ou du travail. Elles ne peuvent donc pas être éliminées ab initio en choisissant des institutions optimales. Pour autant, des restrictions au commerce international ne sont pas une solution car elles risquent de créer d’autres distorsions qui viennent s’ajouter aux premières. Des distorsions avant tout intérieures appellent des solutions intérieures. Pour explorer ces solutions, il faut retenir une analyse conçue pour étudier, non les propriétés des positions d’équilibre avant et après l’ouverture à l’échange, mais les caractéristiques d’un processus de transition dont le succès n’est pas assuré. Ce type d’analyse permet de mettre en évidence la nécessité d’introduire une forme d’inertie dans les mécanismes d’ajustement. Si une relative flexibilité des salaires est encore possible quand l’intensité du changement est limitée, une certaine viscosité est requise dans le cas contraire, et un accès facilité aux ressources financières externes est nécessaire. Ce résultat pourrait aider à formuler les choix institutionnels et organisationnels à mettre en œuvre dans les économies qui veulent tirer avantage du commerce international et de la globalisation.Changes in the pattern of international trade inevitably create distortions that perturb the functioning of the economy. These distortions may not be reduced to malfunctioning goods or labour markets, and hence cannot be eliminated by simply choosing the optimal institutions. Domestic distortions call for domestic solutions. To explore these solutions it is useless to analyze the properties of equilibria before and after the opening to trade. Rather, we need to build an analytical framework suited to investigate the characteristics of a transition process whose success is not guaranteed ex ante. it appears that wage rigidity and an easy access to external financial resources are necessary in presence of fast pace of change, while if change is sufficiently slow the standard recipe of wage flexibility may be appropriate. These results may help in the institutional and organizational choices to be implemented in economies willing to profit from international trade and globalization

Cholesterol Efflux Capacity Associates with the Ankle-Brachial Index but Not All-Cause Mortality in Patients with Peripheral Artery Disease

BACKGROUND: Cholesterol efflux is an important mechanism by which high-density lipoproteins (HDLs) protect against cardiovascular disease. As peripheral artery disease (PAD) is associated with high mortality rates, mainly due to cardiovascular causes, we investigated whether cholesterol efflux capacity (CEC) of apolipoprotein B (apoB)-depleted plasma, a widely used surrogate of HDL function, may serve as a predictive marker for mortality in this patient population. METHODS: In this prospective single-center study (median follow-up time: 9.3 years), apoB-containing lipoproteins were precipitated from plasma of 95 patients with PAD and incubated with J744-macrophages, which were loaded with radiolabeled cholesterol. CEC was defined as the fractional radiolabel released during 4 h of incubation. RESULTS: Baseline CEC was lower in PAD patients that currently smoked (p = 0.015) and had a history of myocardial infarction (p = 0.011). Moreover, CEC showed a significant correlation with HDL-cholesterol (p = 0.003) and apolipoprotein A-I levels (p = 0.001) as well as the ankle-brachial index (ABI, p = 0.018). However, CEC did not differ between survivors and non-survivors. Neither revealed Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses any significant association of CEC with all-cause mortality rates. CONCLUSION: Taken together, CEC is associated with ABI but does not predict all-cause mortality in patients with PAD

Arctic air pollution: Challenges and opportunities for the next decade

The Arctic is a sentinel of global change. This region is influenced by multiple physical and socio-economic drivers and feedbacks, impacting both the natural and human environment. Air pollution is one such driver that impacts Arctic climate change, ecosystems and health but significant uncertainties still surround quantification of these effects. Arctic air pollution includes harmful trace gases (e.g. tropospheric ozone) and particles (e.g. black carbon, sulphate) and toxic substances (e.g. polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons) that can be transported to the Arctic from emission sources located far outside the region, or emitted within the Arctic from activities including shipping, power production, and other industrial activities. This paper qualitatively summarizes the complex science issues motivating the creation of a new international initiative, PACES (air Pollution in the Arctic: Climate, Environment and Societies). Approaches for coordinated, international and interdisciplinary research on this topic are described with the goal to improve predictive capability via new understanding about sources, processes, feedbacks and impacts of Arctic air pollution. Overarching research actions are outlined, in which we describe our recommendations for 1) the development of trans-disciplinary approaches combining social and economic research with investigation of the chemical and physical aspects of Arctic air pollution; 2) increasing the quality and quantity of observations in the Arctic using long-term monitoring and intensive field studies, both at the surface and throughout the troposphere; and 3) developing improved predictive capability across a range of spatial and temporal scales

Precision measurement of the E2E2 transition strength to the 21+^+_1 state of 12^{12}C

The form factor of the electromagnetic excitation of $^{12}$C to its 2$^+_1$ state was measured at extremely low momentum transfers in an electron scattering experiment at the S-DALINAC. A combined analysis with the world form factor data results in a reduced transition strength $B(E2; 2^+_1\rightarrow 0^+_1) =7.63(19)$ e$^2$fm$^4$ with an accuracy improved to 2.5\%. In-Medium-No Core Shell Model results with interactions derived from chiral effective field theory are capable to reproduce the result. A quadrupole moment $Q(2^+_1) = 5.97(30)$ efm$^2$ can be extracted from the strict correlation with the $B((E2)$ strength emerging in the calculations.Comment: 6 pages, 6 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev.

The Growth of Bubbles in Cosmological Phase Transitions

We study how bubbles grow after the initial nucleation event in generic first-order cosmological phase transitions characterised by the values of latent heat, interface tension and correlation length, and driven by a scalar order parameter $\phi$. Equations coupling $\phi$ and the fluid variables $v$ and $T$ and depending on a dissipative constant $\Gamma$ are derived and solved numerically in the 1+1 dimensional case starting from a slightly deformed critical bubble configuration. Parameters corresponding to QCD and electroweak phase transitions are chosen and the whole history of the bubble with formation of combustion and shock fronts is computed as a function of $\Gamma$. Both deflagrations and detonations can appear depending on the values of the parameters. Reheating due to collisions of bubbles is also computed.Comment: 24 LaTeX-pages with 20 figures not included. The complete PostScript file, including figures, is available by anonymous ftp from fltxc.helsinki.fi, as /pub/bubble.ps, or as a hardcopy by airmail (a dublicate lies at nic.funet.fi:/pub/sci/physics/papers/bubble.ps). Helsinki Preprint HU-TFT-93-4

Quenched Spin Tunneling and Diabolical Points in Magnetic Molecules: II. Asymmetric Configurations

The perfect quenching of spin tunneling first predicted for a model with biaxial symmetry, and recently observed in the magnetic molecule Fe_8, is further studied using the discrete phase integral (or Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin) method. The analysis of the previous paper is extended to the case where the magnetic field has both hard and easy components, so that the Hamiltonian has no obvious symmetry. Herring's formula is now inapplicable, so the problem is solved by finding the wavefunction and using connection formulas at every turning point. A general formula for the energy surface in the vicinity of the diabolo is obtained in this way. This formula gives the tunneling apmplitude between two wells unrelated by symmetry in terms of a small number of action integrals, and appears to be generally valid, even for problems where the recursion contains more than five terms. Explicit results are obtained for the diabolical points in the model for Fe_8. These results exactly parallel the experimental observations. It is found that the leading semiclassical results for the diabolical points appear to be exact, and the points themselves lie on a perfect centered rectangular lattice in the magnetic field space. A variety of evidence in favor of this perfect lattice hypothesis is presented.Comment: Revtex; 4 ps figures; follow up to cond-mat/000311

Genetic admixture despite ecological segregation in a North African sparrow hybrid zone (Aves, Passeriformes, Passer domesticus × Passer hispaniolensis)

Under different environmental conditions, hybridization between the same species might result in different patterns of genetic admixture. Particularly, species pairs with large distribution ranges and long evolutionary history may have experienced several independent hybridization events over time in different zones of overlap. In birds, the diverse hybrid populations of the house sparrow (Passer domesticus) and the Spanish sparrow (Passer hispaniolensis) provide a striking example. Throughout their range of sympatry, these two species do not regularly interbreed; however, a stabilized hybrid form (Passer italiae) exists on the Italian Peninsula and on several Mediterranean is‐ lands. The spatial distribution pattern on the Eurasian continent strongly contrasts the situation in North Africa, where house sparrows and Spanish sparrows occur in close vicinity of phenotypically intermediate populations across a broad mosaic hy‐ brid zone. In this study, we investigate patterns of divergence and admixture among the two parental species, stabilized and nonstabilized hybrid populations in Italy and Algeria based on a mitochondrial marker, a sex chromosomal marker, and 12 micros‐ atellite loci. In Algeria, despite strong spatial and temporal separation of urban early‐ breeding house sparrows and hybrids and rural late‐breeding Spanish sparrows, we found strong genetic admixture of mitochondrial and nuclear markers across all study populations and phenotypes. That pattern of admixture in the North African hybrid zone is strikingly different from i) the Iberian area of sympatry where we observed only weak asymmetrical introgression of Spanish sparrow nuclear alleles into local house sparrow populations and ii) the very homogenous Italian sparrow population where the mitogenome of one parent (P. domesticus) and the Z‐chromosomal marker of the other parent (P. hispaniolensis) are fixed. The North African sparrow hybrids provide a further example of enhanced hybridization along with recent urbanization and anthropogenic land‐use changes in a mosaic landscape.Fil: Päckert, Martin. Leibniz Institution for Biodiversity and Earth System Research, Dresden; AlemaniaFil: Ait Belkacem, Abdelkrim. Université de Djelfa; ArgeliaFil: Wolfgramm, Hannes. Leibniz Institution for Biodiversity and Earth System Research, Dresden; AlemaniaFil: Gast, Oliver. Institute of Vertebrate Biology Brno y Masaryk University ; República ChecaFil: Canal Piña, David. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Ciencias de la Tierra y Ambientales de La Pampa. Universidad Nacional de La Pampa. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Ciencias de la Tierra y Ambientales de La Pampa; ArgentinaFil: Giacalone, Gabriele. Cooperativa Silene; ItaliaFil: Lo Valvo, Mario. Universita Degli Studi Di Palermo.; ItaliaFil: Vamberger, Melita. Leibniz Institution for Biodiversity and Earth System Research, Dresden; AlemaniaFil: Wink, Michael. Ruprecht Karls Universitat Heidelberg.; AlemaniaFil: Martens, Jochen. Johannes Gutenberg Universitat Mainz; AlemaniaFil: Stuckas, Heiko. Leibniz Institution for Biodiversity and Earth System Research, Dresden; Alemani

Photons from Quark Gluon Plasma and Hot Hadronic Matter

The productions of real photons from quark gluon plasma and hot hadronic matter formed after the nucleus - nucleus collisions at ultra-relativistic energies are discussed. The effects of the spectral shift of the hadrons at finite temperature on the production of photons are investigated. On the basis of the present analysis it is shown that the photon spectra measured by WA98 collaboration in Pb + Pb collisions at CERN SPS energies can be explained by both QGP as well as hadronic initial states if the spectral shift of hadrons at finite temperature is taken into account. Several other works on the analysis of WA98 photon data have also been briefly discussed.Comment: Latex file, six eps figures include