Correlations and invariance of seismicity under renormalization-group transformations

The effect of transformations analogous to those of the real-space renormalization group are analyzed for the temporal occurrence of earthquakes. The distribution of recurrence times turns out to be invariant under such transformations, for which the role of the correlations between the magnitudes and the recurrence times are fundamental. A general form for the distribution is derived imposing only the self-similarity of the process, which also yields a scaling relation between the Gutenberg-Richter b-value, the exponent characterizing the correlations, and the recurrence-time exponent. This approach puts the study of the structure of seismicity in the context of critical phenomena.Comment: Short paper. I'll be grateful to get some feedbac

Pattern Informatics and its Application for Optimal Forecasting of Large Earthquakes in Japan

Pattern Informatics (PI) technique can be used to detect precursory seismic activation or quiescence and make an earthquake forecast. Here we apply the PI method for optimal forecasting of large earthquakes in Japan, using the data catalogue maintained by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The PI method is tested to forecast large (magnitude m ≥ 5) earthquakes spanning the time period 1995-2004 in the Kobe region. Visual inspection and statistical testing show that the optimized PI method has forecasting skill, relative to the seismic intensity data often used as a standard null hypothesis. Moreover, we find in a retrospective forecast that the 1995 Kobe earthquake (m = 7.2) falls in a seismically anomalous area. Another approach to test the forecasting algorithm is to create a future potential map for large (m ≥ 5) earthquake events. This is illustrated using the Kobe and Tokyo regions for the forecast period 2000-2009. Based on the resulting Kobe map we point out several forecasted areas: The epicentral area of the 1995 Kobe earthquake, the Wakayama area, the Mie area, and the Aichi area. The Tokyo forecast map was created prior to the occurrence of the Oct. 23, 2004 Niigata earthquake (m = 6.8) and the principal aftershocks with 5.0 ≤ m. We find that these events were close to in a forecasted area on the Tokyo map. The PI technique for regional seismicity observation substantiates an example showing considerable promise as an intermediate-term earthquake forecasting in Japa

Using the seismology of non-magnetic chemically peculiar stars as a probe of dynamical processes in stellar interiors

Chemical composition is a good tracer of hydrodynamical processes that occur in stars as they often lead to mixing and particle transport. By comparing abundances predicted by models and those observed in stars we can infer some constraints on those mixing processes. As pulsations in stars are often very sensitive to chemical composition, we can use asteroseismology to probe the internal chemical composition of stars where no direct observations are possible. In this paper I focus on main sequence stars Am, lambda bootis, and HgMn stars and discuss what we can learn of mixing processes in those stars from seismology.Comment: 10 pages,6 figures. accepted in Journal of astrophysics and astronomy. proceedings of aries conferemce on asteroseismology. december 200

Zipf's law in Multifragmentation

We discuss the meaning of Zipf's law in nuclear multifragmentation. We remark that Zipf's law is a consequence of a power law fragment size distribution with exponent $\tau \simeq 2$. We also recall why the presence of such distribution is not a reliable signal of a liquid-gas phase transition

Scaling in Fracture and Refreezing of Sea Ice

Sea ice breaks up and regenerates rapidly during winter conditions in the Arctic. Analyzing satellite data from the Kara Sea, we find that the average ice floe size depends on weather conditions. Nevertheless, the frequency of floes of size $A$ is a power law, $N\sim A^{-\tau}$, where $\tau=1.6\pm 0.2$, for $A$ less than approximately 100 $km^2$. This scale-invariant behaviour suggests a competition between fracture due to strains in the ice field and refreezing of the fractures. A cellular model for this process gives results consistent with observations.Comment: Physica A (in press

3-D multiobservable probabilistic inversion for the compositional and thermal structure of the lithosphere and upper mantle: III. Thermochemical tomography in the Western-Central U.S.

Acknowledgments We are indebted to F. Darbyshire and J. von Hunen for useful comments on earlier versions of this work. This manuscript benefited from thorough and constructive reviews by W. Levandowski and an anonymous reviewer. We also thank J. Connolly, M. Sambridge, B. Kennett, S. Lebedev, B. Shan, U. Faul, and M. Qashqai for insightful discussions about, and contributions to, some of the concepts presented in this paper. The work of J.C.A. has been supported by two Australian Research Council Discovery grants (DP120102372 and DP110104145). Seismic data are from the IRIS DMS. D.L.S. acknowledges support from NSF grant EAR-135866. This is contribution 848 from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Core to Crust Fluid Systems (http://www.ccfs.mq.edu.au) and 1106 in the GEMOC Key Centre (http://www.gemoc.mq.edu.au).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Geodynamo and mantle convection simulations on the Earth Simulator using the Yin-Yang grid

We have developed finite difference codes based on the Yin-Yang grid for the geodynamo simulation and the mantle convection simulation. The Yin-Yang grid is a kind of spherical overset grid that is composed of two identical component grids. The intrinsic simplicity of the mesh configuration of the Yin-Yang grid enables us to develop highly optimized simulation codes on massively parallel supercomputers. The Yin-Yang geodynamo code has achieved 15.2 Tflops with 4096 processors on the Earth Simulator. This represents 46% of the theoretical peak performance. The Yin-Yang mantle code has enabled us to carry out mantle convection simulations in realistic regimes with a Rayleigh number of $10^7$ including strongly temperature-dependent viscosity with spatial contrast up to $10^6$.Comment: Plenary talk at SciDAC 200

Earthquake networks based on similar activity patterns

Earthquakes are a complex spatiotemporal phenomenon, the underlying mechanism for which is still not fully understood despite decades of research and analysis. We propose and develop a network approach to earthquake events. In this network, a node represents a spatial location while a link between two nodes represents similar activity patterns in the two different locations. The strength of a link is proportional to the strength of the cross-correlation in activities of two nodes joined by the link. We apply our network approach to a Japanese earthquake catalog spanning the 14-year period 1985-1998. We find strong links representing large correlations between patterns in locations separated by more than 1000 km, corroborating prior observations that earthquake interactions have no characteristic length scale. We find network characteristics not attributable to chance alone, including a large number of network links, high node assortativity, and strong stability over time.Comment: 8 pages text, 9 figures. Updated from previous versio

Using earthquake intensities to forecast earthquake occurrence times

International audienceIt is well known that earthquakes do not occur randomly in space and time. Foreshocks, aftershocks, precursory activation, and quiescence are just some of the patterns recognized by seismologists. Using the Pattern Informatics technique along with relative intensity analysis, we create a scoring method based on time dependent relative operating characteristic diagrams and show that the occurrences of large earthquakes in California correlate with time intervals where fluctuations in small earthquakes are suppressed relative to the long term average. We estimate a probability of less than 1% that this coincidence is due to random clustering. Furthermore, we show that the methods used to obtain these results may be applicable to other parts of the world

Acute and chronic post-surgical pain after living liver donation: Incidence and predictors

Despite its prominence as a concern among potential surgical candidates, there is little information in the literature regarding the short- and long-term pain experience after living liver donation. We undertook a prospective study to examine (1) the nature and incidence of acute and chronic pain after living donor hepatectomy and (2) the factors associated with an increased or decreased risk of adverse pain outcomes. Before donation, a comprehensive assessment of potential predictors of acute and chronic pain outcomes was conducted; this included donors’ pain expectations, psychosocial factors, medical histories, and demographic factors. Detailed data regarding pain outcomes were collected postoperatively (days 1 and 2) and again during 6- and 12-month follow-up telephone interviews. Sixty-five adults (32 females and 33 males) scheduled for donor hepatectomy participated. Substantial proportions of the donors reported a moderate-to-severe level of pain intensity (4 on a 0-10 scale) at rest and after movement on day 1 (42% and 74%, respectively) and day 2 (33% and 32%, respectively). Persistent postsurgical pain was reported by 31% of the donors at the 6-month follow-up and by 27% of the donors at the 12-month follow-up. Generally, this pain was mild, and pain-related life interference was minimal. Female sex, a younger age, and several predonation measures of pain-related anxiety were associated with a significantly greater risk of developing persistent postsurgical pain. In conclusion, this study has identified a subset of patients who experience persistent pain after living liver donation. Additional prospective research using larger samples of liver donors is needed to replicate this work, to obtain a more detailed account of the acute and long-term pain experience, and to determine whether targeted interventions can minimize the frequency and severity of chronic pain.Hance A. Clarke is supported by a merit award from the Department of Anesthesia at the University of Toronto and by the Strategic Training for Advanced Genetic Epidemiology program at the Canadian Institutes of Health Research. Joel Katz is supported as a Canadian Institutes of Health Research Canada Research Chair in Health Psychology at York University