Clinical course of untreated cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 under active surveillance : systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE To estimate the regression, persistence, and progression of untreated cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 (CIN2) lesions managed conservatively as well as compliance with follow-up protocols. DESIGN Systematic review and meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES Medline, Embase, and the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) from 1 January 1973 to 20 August 2016. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA Studies reporting on outcomes of histologically confirmed CIN2 in non-pregnant women, managed conservatively for three or more months. DATA SYNTHESIS Two reviewers extracted data and assessed risk of bias. Random effects model was used to calculate pooled proportions for each outcome, and heterogeneity was assessed using I-2 statistics. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Rates of regression, persistence, or progression of CIN2 and default rates at different follow-up time points (3, 6, 12, 24, 36, and 60 months). RESULTS 36 studies that included 3160 women were identified (seven randomised trials, 16 prospective cohorts, and 13 retrospective cohorts; 50% of the studies were at low risk of bias). At 24 months, the pooled rates were 50% (11 studies, 819/1470 women, 95% confidence interval 43% to 57%; I-2= 77%) for regression, 32% (eight studies, 334/1257 women, 23% to 42%; I-2= 82%) for persistence, and 18% (nine studies, 282/1445 women, 11% to 27%; I-2= 90%) for progression. In a subgroup analysis including 1069 women aged less than 30 years, the rates were 60% (four studies, 638/1069 women, 57% to 63%; I-2= 0%), 23% (two studies, 226/938 women, 20% to 26%; I-2= 97%), and 11% (three studies, 163/1033 women, 5% to 19%; I-2= 67%), respectively. The rate of non-compliance (at six to 24 months of follow-up) in prospective studies was around 10%. CONCLUSIONS Most CIN2 lesions, particularly in young women (<30 years), regress spontaneously. Active surveillance, rather than immediate intervention, is therefore justified, especially among young women who are likely to adhere to monitoring.Peer reviewe

Everyday experimentation in energy transition:A practice-theoretical view

Research on sustainable practices has attracted increasing interest as a way to understand energy demand and transitions towards sustainability. In this paper we elaborate on how practice theories can inform the discussion of experimentation. Practice theory suggests that the everyday life of people appears recalcitrant. Practices are robust, resilient and have multiple, historically formed constituents and are thereby difficult to destabilize and change quickly. The making and breaking of links inside and between practices is highlighted, as is the need for enduring, multi-sited change efforts. Practice theory further helps us to better understand the constitution of new, levelled forms of expertise, the distributed nature of experimentation and the enrolment of citizens as active participants in sustainability transitions. We have operationalized and examined these suggestions in a Finnish research project related to climate change mitigation and energy use in detached houses. We report specific modes of experimentation and innovation, including user innovations, and the shared resources of situated expertise, the collective and shared processes of empowerment and the ways in which normality is challenged by ruptures in everyday life. Based on the results, we derive suggestions for effective policy interventions. We also bring forward a set of generic suggestions for more sensitive, appreciative and effective public policies on sustainability transitions and cast experimentation in a particular and partial role in such policies

Conservation of grassland butterflies in Finland under a changing climate

This paper examines the potential impact of climate change on grassland butterfly species in Finland. It combines multiple climate change scenarios and different impact models for bioclimatic suitability to capture multi-faceted aspects of uncertainty. It also evaluates alternative options to enhance the adaptation of grassland biodiversity. Due to the long-term decline of semi-natural grasslands, their current extent in Finland is much lower than the minimum level estimated to ensure the survival of butterfly species. Projected locations of the climatically most suitable areas for butterfly species varied considerably between different modelling techniques and climate change scenarios. This uncertainty needs to be taken into account in planning adaptation responses. Analysis of potential adaptation options considered the promotion of existing measures based on the agri-environmental scheme (AES), as well as new measures, including species translocation and dispersal corridors. Current AES options were compared using a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). The CEA results indicated that buffer zones are the most cost-effective AES measure, although environmental fallows and buffer zones had broadly similar cost-effectiveness. The cost of translocation was relatively modest compared to that of dispersal corridors, due to the high number of habitat stepping stones required along potential dispersal corridors. A questionnaire survey of Finnish farmers revealed that a third of the respondents supported increases in nature conservation. Thus, large increases of the uptake of biodiversity-related AES measures among farmers may prove to be difficult. Given the small areas currently assigned for such measures, the prospects for the adaptation of grassland butterflies to climate change in Finland appear unfavourable.Peer reviewe

Health impact assessment of particulate pollution in Tallinn using fine spatial resolution and modeling techniques

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Health impact assessments (HIA) use information on exposure, baseline mortality/morbidity and exposure-response functions from epidemiological studies in order to quantify the health impacts of existing situations and/or alternative scenarios. The aim of this study was to improve HIA methods for air pollution studies in situations where exposures can be estimated using GIS with high spatial resolution and dispersion modeling approaches.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Tallinn was divided into 84 sections according to neighborhoods, with a total population of approx. 390 000 persons. Actual baseline rates for total mortality and hospitalization with cardiovascular and respiratory diagnosis were identified. The exposure to fine particles (PM_2.5) from local emissions was defined as the modeled annual levels. The model validation and morbidity assessment were based on 2006 PM₁₀or PM_2.5levels at 3 monitoring stations. The exposure-response coefficients used were for total mortality 6.2% (95% CI 1.6–11%) per 10 μg/m³increase of annual mean PM_2.5concentration and for the assessment of respiratory and cardiovascular hospitalizations 1.14% (95% CI 0.62–1.67%) and 0.73% (95% CI 0.47–0.93%) per 10 μg/m³increase of PM₁₀. The direct costs related to morbidity were calculated according to hospital treatment expenses in 2005 and the cost of premature deaths using the concept of Value of Life Year (VOLY).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The annual population-weighted-modeled exposure to locally emitted PM_2.5in Tallinn was 11.6 μg/m³. Our analysis showed that it corresponds to 296 (95% CI 76528) premature deaths resulting in 3859 (95% CI 10236636) Years of Life Lost (YLL) per year. The average decrease in life-expectancy at birth per resident of Tallinn was estimated to be 0.64 (95% CI 0.17–1.10) years. While in the polluted city centre this may reach 1.17 years, in the least polluted neighborhoods it remains between 0.1 and 0.3 years. When dividing the YLL by the number of premature deaths, the decrease in life expectancy among the actual cases is around 13 years. As for the morbidity, the short-term effects of air pollution were estimated to result in an additional 71 (95% CI 43–104) respiratory and 204 (95% CI 131–260) cardiovascular hospitalizations per year. The biggest external costs are related to the long-term effects on mortality: this is on average €150 (95% CI 40–260) million annually. In comparison, the costs of short-term air-pollution driven hospitalizations are small €0.3 (95% CI 0.2–0.4) million.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Sectioning the city for analysis and using GIS systems can help to improve the accuracy of air pollution health impact estimations, especially in study areas with poor air pollution monitoring data but available dispersion models.</p

Clinical course of untreated cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 under active surveillance: systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVETo estimate the regression, persistence, and progression of untreated cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 (CIN2) lesions managed conservatively as well as compliance with follow-up protocols.DESIGNSystematic review and meta-analysis.DATA SOURCESMedline, Embase, and the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) from 1 January 1973 to 20 August 2016.ELIGIBILITY CRITERIAStudies reporting on outcomes of histologically confirmed CIN2 in non-pregnant women, managed conservatively for three or more months.DATA SYNTHESISTwo reviewers extracted data and assessed risk of bias. Random effects model was used to calculate pooled proportions for each outcome, and heterogeneity was assessed using I-2 statistics.MAIN OUTCOME MEASURESRates of regression, persistence, or progression of CIN2 and default rates at different follow-up time points (3, 6, 12, 24, 36, and 60 months).RESULTS36 studies that included 3160 women were identified (seven randomised trials, 16 prospective cohorts, and 13 retrospective cohorts; 50% of the studies were at low risk of bias). At 24 months, the pooled rates were 50% (11 studies, 819/1470 women, 95% confidence interval 43% to 57%; I-2= 77%) for regression, 32% (eight studies, 334/1257 women, 23% to 42%; I-2= 82%) for persistence, and 18% (nine studies, 282/1445 women, 11% to 27%; I-2= 90%) for progression. In a subgroup analysis including 1069 women aged less than 30 years, the rates were 60% (four studies, 638/1069 women, 57% to 63%; I-2= 0%), 23% (two studies, 226/938 women, 20% to 26%; I-2= 97%), and 11% (three studies, 163/1033 women, 5% to 19%; I-2= 67%), respectively. The rate of non-compliance (at six to 24 months of follow-up) in prospective studies was around 10%.CONCLUSIONSMost CIN2 lesions, particularly in young women (< 30 years), regress spontaneously. Active surveillance, rather than immediate intervention, is therefore justified, especially among young women who are likely to adhere to monitoring.</p

Parameter and model uncertainty in a life-table model for fine particles (PM2.5): a statistical modeling study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The estimation of health impacts involves often uncertain input variables and assumptions which have to be incorporated into the model structure. These uncertainties may have significant effects on the results obtained with model, and, thus, on decision making. Fine particles (PM_2.5) are believed to cause major health impacts, and, consequently, uncertainties in their health impact assessment have clear relevance to policy-making. We studied the effects of various uncertain input variables by building a life-table model for fine particles.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Life-expectancy of the Helsinki metropolitan area population and the change in life-expectancy due to fine particle exposures were predicted using a life-table model. A number of parameter and model uncertainties were estimated. Sensitivity analysis for input variables was performed by calculating rank-order correlations between input and output variables. The studied model uncertainties were (i) plausibility of mortality outcomes and (ii) lag, and parameter uncertainties (iii) exposure-response coefficients for different mortality outcomes, and (iv) exposure estimates for different age groups. The monetary value of the years-of-life-lost and the relative importance of the uncertainties related to monetary valuation were predicted to compare the relative importance of the monetary valuation on the health effect uncertainties.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The magnitude of the health effects costs depended mostly on discount rate, exposure-response coefficient, and plausibility of the cardiopulmonary mortality. Other mortality outcomes (lung cancer, other non-accidental and infant mortality) and lag had only minor impact on the output. The results highlight the importance of the uncertainties associated with cardiopulmonary mortality in the fine particle impact assessment when compared with other uncertainties.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>When estimating life-expectancy, the estimates used for cardiopulmonary exposure-response coefficient, discount rate, and plausibility require careful assessment, while complicated lag estimates can be omitted without this having any major effect on the results.</p

Global Intraurban Intake Fractions for Primary Air Pollutants from Vehicles and Other Distributed Sources

We model intraurban intake fraction (iF) values for distributed ground-level emissions in all 3646 global cities with more than 100,000 inhabitants, encompassing a total population of 2.0 billion. For conserved primary pollutants, population-weighted median, mean, and interquartile range iF values are 26, 39, and 14-52 ppm, respectively, where 1 ppm signifies 1 g inhaled/t emitted. The global mean urban iF reported here is roughly twice as large as previous estimates for cities in the United States and Europe. Intake fractions vary among cities owing to differences in population size, population density, and meteorology. Sorting by size, population-weighted mean iF values are 65, 35, and 15 ppm, respectively, for cities with populations larger than 3, 0.6-3, and 0.1-0.6 million. The 20 worldwide megacities (each &gt;10 million people) have a population-weighted mean iF of 83 ppm. Mean intraurban iF values are greatest in Asia and lowest in land-rich high-income regions. Country-average iF values vary by a factor of 3 among the 10 nations with the largest urban populations