Local fluctuations in an aging glass

Polarization fluctuations were measured in nanoscale volumes of a polymer glass during aging following a temperature quench through the glass transition. Statistical properties of the noise were studied in equilibrium and during aging. The noise spectral density had a larger temporal variance during aging, i.e. the noise was more non-Gaussian, demonstrating stronger correlations during aging

Molecular characterization and identification of members of the Anopheles subpictus complex in Sri Lanka

BACKGROUND: Anopheles subpictus sensu lato is a major malaria vector in South and Southeast Asia. Based initially on polytene chromosome inversion polymorphism, and subsequently on morphological characterization, four sibling species A-D were reported from India. The present study uses molecular methods to further characterize and identify sibling species in Sri Lanka. METHODS: Mosquitoes from Sri Lanka were morphologically identified to species and sequenced for the ribosomal internal transcribed spacer-2 (ITS2) and the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit-I (COI) genes. These sequences, together with others from GenBank, were used to construct phylogenetic trees and parsimony haplotype networks and to test for genetic population structure. RESULTS: Both ITS2 and COI sequences revealed two divergent clades indicating that the Subpictus complex in Sri Lanka is composed of two genetically distinct species that correspond to species A and species B from India. Phylogenetic analysis showed that species A and species B do not form a monophyletic clade but instead share genetic similarity with Anopheles vagus and Anopheles sundaicus s.l., respectively. An allele specific identification method based on ITS2 variation was developed for the reliable identification of species A and B in Sri Lanka. CONCLUSION: Further multidisciplinary studies are needed to establish the species status of all chromosomal forms in the Subpictus complex. This study emphasizes the difficulties in using morphological characters for species identification in An. subpictus s.l. in Sri Lanka and demonstrates the utility of an allele specific identification method that can be used to characterize the differential bio-ecological traits of species A and B in Sri Lanka

Dynamic fluctuations of elastic lines in random environments

We study the fluctuations of the two-time dependent global roughness of finite size elastic lines in a quenched random environment. We propose a scaling form for the roughness distribution function that accounts for the two-time, temperature, and size dependence. At high temperature and in the final stationary regime before saturation the fluctuations are as the ones of the Edwards-Wilkinson interface evolving from typical initial conditions. We analyze the variation of the scaling function within the aging regime and with the distance from saturation. We speculate on the relevance of our results to describe the fluctuations of other non-equilibrium systems such as models at criticality.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figure

Molecular evidence for the presence of malaria vector species a of the Anopheles annularis complex in Sri Lanka

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p><it>Anopheles annularis s.l</it>. is a wide spread malaria vector in South and Southeast Asia, including Sri Lanka. The taxon <it>An. annularis </it>is a complex of two sibling species viz. A and B, that are differentiated by chromosome banding patterns and ribosomal gene sequences in India. Only species A is reported to be a malaria vector in India while the occurrence of sibling species in Sri Lanka has not been documented previously.</p> <p>Findings</p> <p>Anopheline larvae were collected at a site in the Jaffna district, which lies within the dry zone of Sri Lanka, and reared in the laboratory. Emerged adults were identified using standard keys. DNA sequences of the D3 domain of 28S ribosomal DNA (rDNA) and the internal transcribed spacer-2 (ITS-2) of the morphologically identified <it>An. annularis </it>were determined. BLASTn searches against corresponding <it>An. annularis </it>sequences in GenBank and construction of phylogenetic trees from D3 and ITS-2 rDNA sequences showed that the Sri Lankan specimens, and <it>An. annularis s.l</it>. specimens from several Southeast Asian countries were closely related to species A of the Indian <it>An. annularis </it>complex.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The results show the presence of the malaria vector <it>An. annularis </it>species A in Sri Lanka and Southeast Asia. Because <it>An. annularis </it>vectors have been long associated with malaria transmission in irrigated agricultural areas in the Sri Lankan dry zone, continued monitoring of <it>An. annularis </it>populations, and their sibling species status, in these areas need to be integral to malaria control and eradication efforts in the island.</p

Fluctuations in the coarsening dynamics of the O(N) model: are they similar to those in glassy systems?

We study spatio-temporal fluctuations in the non-equilibrium dynamics of the d dimensional O(N) in the large N limit. We analyse the invariance of the dynamic equations for the global correlation and response in the slow ageing regime under transformations of time. We find that these equations are invariant under scale transformations. We extend this study to the action in the dynamic generating functional finding similar results. This model therefore falls into a different category from glassy problems in which full time-reparametrisation invariance, a larger symmetry that emcompasses time scale invariance, is expected to be realised asymptotically. Consequently, the spatio-temporal fluctuations of the large N O(N) model should follow a different pattern from that of glassy systems. We compute the fluctuations of local, as well as spatially separated, two-field composite operators and responses, and we confront our results with the ones found numerically for the 3d Edwards-Anderson model and kinetically constrained lattice gases. We analyse the dependence of the fluctuations of the composite operators on the growing domain length and we compare to what has been found in super-cooled liquids and glasses. Finally, we show that the development of time-reparametrisation invariance in glassy systems is intimately related to a well-defined and finite effective temperature, specified from the modification of the fluctuation-dissipation theorem out of equilibrium. We then conjecture that the global asymptotic time-reparametrisation invariance is broken down to time scale invariance in all coarsening systems.Comment: 57 pages, 5 figure

The impact of social and physical distancing measures on COVID-19 activity in England: findings from a multi-tiered surveillance system

BACKGROUND: A multi-tiered surveillance system based on influenza surveillance was adopted in the United Kingdom in the early stages of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic to monitor different stages of the disease. Mandatory social and physical distancing measures (SPDM) were introduced on 23 March 2020 to attempt to limit transmission. AIM: To describe the impact of SPDM on COVID-19 activity as detected through the different surveillance systems. METHODS: Data from national population surveys, web-based indicators, syndromic surveillance, sentinel swabbing, respiratory outbreaks, secondary care admissions and mortality indicators from the start of the epidemic to week 18 2020 were used to identify the timing of peaks in surveillance indicators relative to the introduction of SPDM. This timing was compared with median time from symptom onset to different stages of illness and levels of care or interactions with healthcare services. RESULTS: The impact of SPDM was detected within 1 week through population surveys, web search indicators and sentinel swabbing reported by onset date. There were detectable impacts on syndromic surveillance indicators for difficulty breathing, influenza-like illness and COVID-19 coding at 2, 7 and 12 days respectively, hospitalisations and critical care admissions (both 12 days), laboratory positivity (14 days), deaths (17 days) and nursing home outbreaks (4 weeks). CONCLUSION: The impact of SPDM on COVID-19 activity was detectable within 1 week through community surveillance indicators, highlighting their importance in early detection of changes in activity. Community swabbing surveillance may be increasingly important as a specific indicator, should circulation of seasonal respiratory viruses increase

European all-cause excess and influenza-attributable mortality in the 2017/18 season: should the burden of influenza B be reconsidered?

Objectives Weekly monitoring of European all-cause excess mortality, the EuroMOMO network, observed high excess mortality during the influenza B/Yamagata dominated 2017/18 winter season, especially among elderly. We describe all-cause excess and influenza-attributable mortality during the season 2017/18 in Europe. Methods Based on weekly reporting of mortality from 24 European countries or sub-national regions, representing 60% of the European population excluding the Russian and Turkish parts of Europe, we estimated age stratified all-cause excess morality using the EuroMOMO model. In addition, age stratified all-cause influenza-attributable mortality was estimated using the FluMOMO algorithm, incorporating influenza activity based on clinical and virological surveillance data, and adjusting for extreme temperatures. Results Excess mortality was mainly attributable to influenza activity from December 2017 to April 2018, but also due to exceptionally low temperatures in February-March 2018. The pattern and extent of mortality excess was similar to the previous A(H3N2) dominated seasons, 2014/15 and 2016/17. The 2017/18 overall all-cause influenza-attributable mortality was estimated to be 25.4 (95%CI 25.0-25.8) per 100,000 population; 118.2 (116.4-119.9) for persons aged 65. Extending to the European population this translates into over-all 152,000 deaths. Conclusions The high mortality among elderly was unexpected in an influenza B dominated season, which commonly are considered to cause mild illness, mainly among children. Even though A(H3N2) also circulated in the 2017/18 season and may have contributed to the excess mortality among the elderly, the common perception of influenza B only having a modest impact on excess mortality in the older population may need to be reconsidered.Peer Reviewe

A cross-sectional national investigation of COVID-19 outbreaks in nurseries during rapid spread of the Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant of SARS-CoV-2 in England.

BACKGROUND: In England, the emergence the more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variant Alpha (B.1.1.7) led to a third national lockdown from December 2020, including restricted attendance at schools. Nurseries, however, remained fully open. COVID-19 outbreaks (≥ 2 laboratory-confirmed cases within 14 days) in nurseries were investigated to assess the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and cumulative incidence in staff and children over a three-month period when community SARS-CoV-2 infections rates were high and the Alpha variant was spreading rapidly across England. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional national investigation of COVID-19 outbreaks in nurseries across England. Nurseries reporting a COVID-19 outbreak to PHE between November 2020 and January 2021 were requested to complete a questionnaire about their outbreak. RESULTS: Three hundred and twenty-four nurseries, comprising 1% (324/32,852) of nurseries in England, reported a COVID-19 outbreak. Of the 315 (97%) nurseries contacted, 173 (55%) reported 1,657 SARS-CoV-2 cases, including 510 (31%) children and 1,147 (69%) staff. A child was the index case in 45 outbreaks (26%) and staff in 125 (72%) outbreaks. Overall, children had an incidence rate of 3.50% (95%CI, 3.21-3.81%) and was similar irrespective of whether the index case was a child (3.55%; 95%CI, 3.01-4.19%) or staff (3.44%; 95%CI, 3.10-3.82%). Among staff, cumulative incidence was lower if the index case was a child (26.28%; 95%CI, 23.54-29.21%%) compared to a staff member (32.98%; 95%CI, 31.19-34.82%), with the highest cumulative incidence when the index case was also a staff member (37.52%; 95%CI, 35.39-39.70%). Compared to November 2020, outbreak sizes and cumulative incidence was higher in January 2021, when the Alpha variant predominated. Nationally, SARS-CoV-2 infection rates in < 5 year-olds remained low and followed trends in older age-groups, increasing during December 2020 and declining thereafter. CONCLUSIONS: In this cross-sectional study of COVID-19 outbreaks in nurseries, one in three staff were affected compared to one in thirty children. There was some evidence of increased transmissibility and higher cumulative incidence associated with the Alpha variant, highlighting the importance of maintaining a low level of community infections

Real-time monitoring shows substantial excess all-cause mortality during second wave of COVID-19 in Europe, October to December 2020.

The European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action (EuroMOMO) network monitors weekly excess all-cause mortality in 27 European countries or subnational areas. During the first wave of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in Europe in spring 2020, several countries experienced extraordinarily high levels of excess mortality. Europe is currently seeing another upsurge in COVID-19 cases, and EuroMOMO is again witnessing a substantial excess all-cause mortality attributable to COVID-19.Funding statement: The EuroMOMO network hub at Statens Serum Institut receives funding from European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Solna, Sweden, through a framework contract 2017-2020.S