Global warming will affect the maximum potential abundance of boreal plant species

Forecasting the impact of future global warming on biodiversity requires understanding how temperature limits the distribution of species. Here we rely on Liebig's Law of Minimum to estimate the effect of temperature on the maximum potential abundance that a species can attain at a certain location. We develop 95%‐quantile regressions to model the influence of effective temperature sum on the maximum potential abundance of 25 common understory plant species of Finland, along 868 nationwide plots sampled in 1985. Fifteen of these species showed a significant response to temperature sum that was consistent in temperature‐only models and in all‐predictors models, which also included cumulative precipitation, soil texture, soil fertility, tree species and stand maturity as predictors. For species with significant and consistent responses to temperature, we forecasted potential shifts in abundance for the period 2041–2070 under the IPCC A1B emission scenario using temperature‐only models. We predict major potential changes in abundance and average northward distribution shifts of 6–8 km yr−1. Our results emphasize inter‐specific differences in the impact of global warming on the understory layer of boreal forests. Species in all functional groups from dwarf shrubs, herbs and grasses to bryophytes and lichens showed significant responses to temperature, while temperature did not limit the abundance of 10 species. We discuss the interest of modelling the ‘maximum potential abundance’ to deal with the uncertainty in the predictions of realized abundances associated to the effect of environmental factors not accounted for and to dispersal limitations of species, among others. We believe this concept has a promising and unexplored potential to forecast the impact of specific drivers of global change under future scenarios.202

2-Iodo-imidazolium receptor binds oxoanions via charge-assisted halogen bonding.

A detailed (1)H-NMR study of the anion binding properties of the 2-iodo-imidazolium receptor 1 in DMSO allows to fully attribute the observed affinities to strong charge-assisted C-IX(-) halogen bonding (XB). Stronger binding was observed for oxoanions over halides. Phosphate, in particular, binds to 1 with an association constant of ca. 10(3) M(-1), which is particularly high for a single X-bond. A remarkably short C-IO(-) contact is observed in the structure of the salt 1·H(2)PO(4)(-)

Theories of Reference: What Was the Question?

The new theory of reference has won popularity. However, a number of noted philosophers have also attempted to reply to the critical arguments of Kripke and others, and aimed to vindicate the description theory of reference. Such responses are often based on ingenious novel kinds of descriptions, such as rigidified descriptions, causal descriptions, and metalinguistic descriptions. This prolonged debate raises the doubt whether different parties really have any shared understanding of what the central question of the philosophical theory of reference is: what is the main question to which descriptivism and the causal-historical theory have presented competing answers. One aim of the paper is to clarify this issue. The most influential objections to the new theory of reference are critically reviewed. Special attention is also paid to certain important later advances in the new theory of reference, due to Devitt and others

The development and application of a new tool to assess the adequacy of the content and timing of antenatal care

Abstract Background: Current measures of antenatal care use are limited to initiation of care and number of visits. This study aimed to describe the development and application of a tool to assess the adequacy of the content and timing of antenatal care. Methods: The Content and Timing of care in Pregnancy (CTP) tool was developed based on clinical relevance for ongoing antenatal care and recommendations in national and international guidelines. The tool reflects minimal care recommended in every pregnancy, regardless of parity or risk status. CTP measures timing of initiation of care, content of care (number of blood pressure readings, blood tests and ultrasound scans) and whether the interventions were received at an appropriate time. Antenatal care trajectories for 333 pregnant women were then described using a standard tool (the APNCU index), that measures the quantity of care only, and the new CTP tool. Both tools categorise care into 4 categories, from ‘Inadequate’ (both tools) to ‘Adequate plus’ (APNCU) or ‘Appropriate’ (CTP). Participants recorded the timing and content of their antenatal care prospectively using diaries. Analysis included an examination of similarities and differences in categorisation of care episodes between the tools. Results: According to the CTP tool, the care trajectory of 10,2% of the women was classified as inadequate, 8,4% as intermediate, 36% as sufficient and 45,3% as appropriate. The assessment of quality of care differed significantly between the two tools. Seventeen care trajectories classified as ‘Adequate’ or ‘Adequate plus’ by the APNCU were deemed ‘Inadequate’ by the CTP. This suggests that, despite a high number of visits, these women did not receive the minimal recommended content and timing of care. Conclusions: The CTP tool provides a more detailed assessment of the adequacy of antenatal care than the current standard index. However, guidelines for the content of antenatal care vary, and the tool does not at the moment grade over-use of interventions as ‘Inappropriate’. Further work needs to be done to refine the content items prior to larger scale testing of the impact of the new measure

Systematic literature review of validation methods for AI systems

Context: Artificial intelligence (AI) has made its way into everyday activities, particularly through new techniques such as machine learning (ML). These techniques are implementable with little domain knowledge. This, combined with the difficulty of testing AI systems with traditional methods, has made system trustworthiness a pressing issue. Objective: This paper studies the methods used to validate practical AI systems reported in the literature. Our goal is to classify and describe the methods that are used in realistic settings to ensure the dependability of AI systems. Method: A systematic literature review resulted in 90 papers. Systems presented in the papers were analysed based on their domain, task, complexity, and applied validation methods. Results: The validation methods were synthesized into a taxonomy consisting of trial, simulation, model-centred validation, and expert opinion. Failure monitors, safety channels, redundancy, voting, and input and output restrictions are methods used to continuously validate the systems after deployment. Conclusions: Our results clarify existing strategies applied to validation. They form a basis for the synthesization, assessment, and refinement of AI system validation in research and guidelines for validating individual systems in practice. While various validation strategies have all been relatively widely applied, only few studies report on continuous validation.Peer reviewe

On Misbehaviour and Fault Tolerance in Machine Learning Systems

Machine learning (ML) provides us with numerous opportunities, allowing ML systems to adapt to new situations and contexts. At the same time, this adaptability raises uncertainties concerning the run-time product quality or dependability, such as reliability and security, of these systems. Systems can be tested and monitored, but this does not provide protection against faults and failures in adapted ML systems themselves. We studied software designs that aim at introducing fault tolerance in ML systems so that possible problems in ML components of the systems can be avoided. The research was conducted as a case study, and its data was collected through five semi-structured interviews with experienced software architects. We present a conceptualisation of the misbehaviour of ML systems, the perceived role of fault tolerance, and the designs used. Common patterns to incorporating ML components in design in a fault tolerant fashion have started to emerge. ML models are, for example, guarded by monitoring the inputs and their distribution, and enforcing business rules on acceptable outputs. Multiple, specialised ML models are used to adapt to the variations and changes in the surrounding world, and simpler fall-over techniques like default outputs are put in place to have systems up and running in the face of problems. However, the general role of these patterns is not widely acknowledged. This is mainly due to the relative immaturity of using ML as part of a complete software system: the field still lacks established frameworks and practices beyond training to implement, operate, and maintain the software that utilises ML. ML software engineering needs further analysis and development on all fronts.Peer reviewe

Semi-natural grasslands in boreal Europe: a rise of a socioecological research agenda

Peer reviewe

Why Are Outcomes Different for Registry Patients Enrolled Prospectively and Retrospectively? Insights from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF).

Background: Retrospective and prospective observational studies are designed to reflect real-world evidence on clinical practice, but can yield conflicting results. The GARFIELD-AF Registry includes both methods of enrolment and allows analysis of differences in patient characteristics and outcomes that may result. Methods and Results: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ≥1 risk factor for stroke at diagnosis of AF were recruited either retrospectively (n = 5069) or prospectively (n = 5501) from 19 countries and then followed prospectively. The retrospectively enrolled cohort comprised patients with established AF (for a least 6, and up to 24 months before enrolment), who were identified retrospectively (and baseline and partial follow-up data were collected from the emedical records) and then followed prospectively between 0-18 months (such that the total time of follow-up was 24 months; data collection Dec-2009 and Oct-2010). In the prospectively enrolled cohort, patients with newly diagnosed AF (≤6 weeks after diagnosis) were recruited between Mar-2010 and Oct-2011 and were followed for 24 months after enrolment. Differences between the cohorts were observed in clinical characteristics, including type of AF, stroke prevention strategies, and event rates. More patients in the retrospectively identified cohort received vitamin K antagonists (62.1% vs. 53.2%) and fewer received non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (1.8% vs . 4.2%). All-cause mortality rates per 100 person-years during the prospective follow-up (starting the first study visit up to 1 year) were significantly lower in the retrospective than prospectively identified cohort (3.04 [95% CI 2.51 to 3.67] vs . 4.05 [95% CI 3.53 to 4.63]; p = 0.016). Conclusions: Interpretations of data from registries that aim to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients with AF must take account of differences in registry design and the impact of recall bias and survivorship bias that is incurred with retrospective enrolment. Clinical Trial Registration: - URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362)

1,3-Bis(bromo­meth­yl)-2-nitro­benzene

In the title compound, C8H7Br2NO2, an inter­mediate for the synthesis of macrocycles, the NO2 group makes a dihedral angle of 65.07 (19)° with the arene ring, and the bromo­methyl substituents adopt a trans conformation about the ring such that the mol­ecule closely approximates C2 symmetry

Hygroscopic properties and cloud condensation nuclei activation of limonene-derived organosulfates and their mixtures with ammonium sulfate

Organosulfates have been observed as constituents of atmospheric aerosols in a wide range of environments; however their hygroscopic properties remain uncharacterised. Here, limonene-derived organosulfates with a molecular weight of 250 Da (L-OS 250) were synthesised and used for simultaneous measurements with a hygroscopicity tandem differential mobility analyser (H-TDMA) and a cloud condensation nuclei counter (CCNC) to determine the hygroscopicity parameter, kappa, for pure L-OS 250 and mixtures of L-OS 250 with ammonium sulfate (AS) over a wide range of humidity conditions. The kappa values derived from measurements with H-TDMA decreased with increasing particle dry diameter for all chemical compositions investigated, indicating that kappa H-TDMA depends on particle diameter and/or surface effects; however, it is not clear if this trend is statistically significant. For pure L-OS 250, kappa was found to increase with increasing relative humidity, indicating dilution/solubility effects to be significant. Discrepancies in kappa between the sub-and supersaturated measurements were observed for LOS 250, whereas kappa of AS and mixed L-OS 250/AS were similar. This discrepancy was primarily ascribed to limited dissolution of L-OS 250 at subsaturated conditions. In general, hygroscopic growth factor, critical particle diameter and kappa for the mixed L-OS 250/AS particles converged towards the values of pure AS for mixtures with >= 20% w/w AS. Surface tension measurements of bulk aqueous L-OS 250/AS solutions showed that L-OS 250 was indeed surface active, as expected from its molecular structure, decreasing the surface tension of solutions with 24% from the pure water value at a L-OS 250 concentration of 0.0025 mol L-1. Based on these surface tension measurements, we present the first concentration-dependent parametrisation of surface tension for aqueous L-OS 250, which was implemented to different process-level models of L-OS 250 hygroscopicity and CCN activation. The values of kappa obtained from the measurements were compared with kappa calculated applying the volume additive Zdanovskii-Stokes-Robinson mixing rule, as well as kappa modelled from equilibrium Kohler theory with different assumptions regarding L-OS 250 bulk-to-surface partitioning and aqueous droplet surface tension. This study is to our knowledge the first to investigate the hygroscopic properties and surface activity of L-OS 250; hence it is an important first step towards understanding the atmospheric impact of organosulfates.Peer reviewe