The Effect of Agricultural Growing Season Change on Market Prices in Africa

Local agricultural production is a key element of food security in many agricultural countries in Africa. Climate change and variability is likely to adversely affect these countries, particularly as they affect the ability of smallholder farmers to raise enough food to feed themselves. Seasonality influences farmers' decisions about when to sow and harvest, and ultimately the success or failure of their crops. At a 2009 conference in the United Kingdom hosted by the Institute of Development Studies, Jennings and Magrath (2009) described farmer reports from East Asia, South Asia, Southern Africa, East Africa and Latin America. Farmers indicate significant changes in the timing of rainy seasons and the pattern of rains within seasons, including: More erratic rainfall, coming at unexpected times in and out of season; Extreme storms and unusually intense rainfall are punctuated by longer dry spells within the rainy season; Increasing uncertainty as to the start of rainy seasons in many areas; Short or transitional second rainy seasons are becoming stronger than normal or are disappearing altogether. These farmer perceptions of change are striking in that they are geographically widespread and are remarkably consistent across diverse regions (Jennings and Magrath, 2009). The impact of these changes on farmers with small plots and few resources is large. Farming is becoming riskier because of heat stress, lack of water, pests and diseases that interact with ongoing pressures on natural resources. Lack of predictability in the start and length of the growing season affects the ability of farmers to invest in appropriate fertilizer levels or improved, high yielding varieties. These changes occur at the same time as the demand for food is rising and is projected to continue to rise for the next fifty years (IAASTD, 2008). Long-term data records derived from satellite remote sensing can be used to verify these reports, providing necessary analysis and documentation required to plan effective adaptation strategies. Remote sensing data can also provide some understanding of the spatial extent of these changes and whether they are likely to continue. Given the agricultural nature of most economies on the African continent, agricultural production continues to be a critical determinant of both food security and economic growth (Funk and Brown, 2009). Crop phenological parameters, such as the start and end of the growing season, the total length of the growing season, and the rate of greening and senescence are important for planning crop management, crop diversification, and intensification. The World Food Summit of 1996 defined food security as: "when all people at all times have access to sufficient, safe, nutritious food to maintain a healthy and active life". Food security roughly depends on three factors: 1) availability of food; 2) access to food and 3) appropriate use of food, as well as adequate water and sanitation. The first factor is dependent on growing conditions and weather and climate. In a previous paper we have investigated this factor by evaluating the effect of large scale climate oscillation on land surface phenology (Brown et al., 2010). We found that all areas in Africa are significantly affected by at least one type of large scale climate oscillations and concluded that these somewhat predictable oscillations could perhaps be used to forecast agricultural production. In addition, we have evaluated changes in agricultural land surface phenology over time (Brown et al., 2012). We found that land surface phenology models, which link large-scale vegetation indices with accumulated humidity, could successfully predict agricultural productivity in several countries around the world. In this chapter we are interested in the effect of variability in peak timing of the growing season, or phenology, on the second factor of food security, food access. In this chapter we want to determine if there is a link between market prices and land surface phenology and to determine which markets are vulnerable to land surface phenology changes and variability and which market prices are not correlated

Dual Scale Trend Analysis Distinguishes Climatic from Anthropogenic Effects on the Vegetated Land Surface

We present a dual scale trend analysis for characterizing and comparing two contrasting areas of change in Russia and Kazakhstan that lie less than 800 km apart. We selected a global NASA MODIS (moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer) product (MCD43C4 and MCD43A4) at a 0.05◦ (∼5.6 km) and 500 m spatial resolution and a 16-day temporal resolution from 2000 to 2008. We applied a refinement of the seasonal Kendall trend method to the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) image series at both scales. We only incorporated composites during the vegetative growing season which was delineated by start of season and end of season estimates based on analysis of normalized difference infrared index data. Trend patterns on two scales pointed to drought as the proximal cause of significant declines in NDVI in Kazakhstan. In contrast, the area of increasing NDVI trend in Russia was linked through the dual scale analysis with agricultural land cover change. The coarser scale analysis was relevant to atmospheric boundary layer processes, while the finer scale data revealed trends that were more relevant to human decision-making and regional economics

Land Surface Anomalies Preceding the 2010 Russian Heat Wave and a Link to the North Atlantic Oscillation

The Eurasian wheat belt (EWB) spans a region across Eastern Ukraine, Southern Russia, and Northern Kazakhstan; accounting for nearly 15% of global wheat production. We assessed land surface conditions across the EWB during the early growing season (April–May–June; AMJ) leading up to the 2010 Russian heat wave, and over a longer-term period from 2000 to 2010. A substantial reduction in early season values of the normalized difference vegetation index occurred prior to the Russian heat wave, continuing a decadal decline in early season primary production in the region. In 2010, an anomalously cold winter followed by an abrupt shift to a warmer-than-normal early growing season was consistent with a persistently negative phase of the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). Regression analyses showed that early season vegetation productivity in the EWB is a function of both the winter (December–January–February; DJF) and AMJ phases of the NAO. Land surface anomalies preceding the heat wave were thus consistent with highly negative values of both the DJF NAO and AMJ NAO in 2010

De ruimte in getallen

Stel je voor dat je iets wilt weten over een gebied, een land, een regio of een terrein. Vroeger zou je een atlas pakken, een encyclopedie, of gaan praten met de mensen ter plaatse om zo een beeld te krijgen van wat je kunt verwachten. Tegenwoordig hebben we nieuwe mogelijkheden. Soms wat verfijnder, soms wat specifieker. In ieder geval hebben we nu meer mogelijkheden om kwantitatieve uitspraken te doen. Een belangrijk hulpmiddel hierbij is de ruimtelijke statistiek

Estimate risk difference and number needed to treat in survival analysis

The hazard ratio (HR) is a measure of instantaneous relative risk of an increase in one unit of the covariate of interest, which is widely reported in clinical researches involving time-to-event data. However, the measure fails to capture absolute risk reduction. Other measures such as number needed to treat (NNT) and risk difference (RD) provide another perspective on the effectiveness of an intervention, and can facilitate clinical decision making. The article aims to provide a step-by-step tutorial on how to compute RD and NNT in survival analysis with R. For simplicity, only one measure (RD or NNT) needs to be illustrated, because the other measure is a reverse of the illustrated one (NNT=1/RD). An artificial dataset is composed by using the survsim package. RD and NNT are estimated with Austin method after fitting a Cox-proportional hazard regression model. The confidence intervals can be estimated using bootstrap method. Alternatively, if the standard errors (SEs) of the survival probabilities of the treated and control group are given, confidence intervals can be estimated using algebraic calculations. The pseudo-value model provides another method to estimate RD and NNT. Details of R code and its output are shown and explained in the main text

Diffractive shear interferometry for extreme ultraviolet high-resolution lensless imaging

We demonstrate a novel imaging approach and associated reconstruction algorithm for far-field coherent diffractive imaging, based on the measurement of a pair of laterally sheared diffraction patterns. The differential phase profile retrieved from such a measurement leads to improved reconstruction accuracy, increased robustness against noise, and faster convergence compared to traditional coherent diffractive imaging methods. We measure laterally sheared diffraction patterns using Fourier-transform spectroscopy with two phase-locked pulse pairs from a high harmonic source. Using this approach, we demonstrate spectrally resolved imaging at extreme ultraviolet wavelengths between 28 and 35 nm

Reanalysis Data Underestimate Significant Changes in Growing Season Weather in Kazakhstan

We present time series analyses of recently compiled climate station data which allowed us to assess contemporary trends in growing season weather across Kazakhstan as drivers of a significant decline in growing season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) recently observed by satellite remote sensing across much of Central Asia. We used a robust nonparametric time series analysis method, the seasonal Kendall trend test to analyze georeferenced time series of accumulated growing season precipitation (APPT) and accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD). Over the period 2000–2006 we found geographically extensive, statistically significant (p \u3c 0.05) decreasing trends in APPT and increasing trends in AGDD. The temperature trends were especially apparent during the warm season and coincided with precipitation decreases in northwest Kazakhstan, indicating that pervasive drought conditions and higher temperature excursions were the likely drivers of NDVI declines observed in Kazakhstan over the same period. We also compared the APPT and AGDD trends at individual stations with results from trend analysis of gridded monthly precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Full Data Reanalysis v4 and gridded daily near surface air temperature from the National Centers for Climate Prediction Reanalysis v2 (NCEP R2). We found substantial deviation between the station and the reanalysis trends, suggesting that GPCC and NCEP data substantially underestimate the geographic extent of recent drought in Kazakhstan. Although gridded climate products offer many advantages in ease of use and complete coverage, our findings for Kazakhstan should serve as a caveat against uncritical use of GPCC and NCEP reanalysis data and demonstrate the importance of compiling and standardizing daily climate data from data-sparse regions like Central Asia

A trial of a job-specific workers' health surveillance program for construction workers: study protocol

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Dutch construction workers are offered periodic health examinations. This care can be improved by tailoring this workers health surveillance (WHS) to the demands of the job and adjust the preventive actions to the specific health risks of a worker in a particular job. To improve the quality of the WHS for construction workers and stimulate relevant job-specific preventive actions by the occupational physician, we have developed a job-specific WHS. The job-specific WHS consists of modules assessing both physical and psychological requirements. The selected measurement instruments chosen, are based on their appropriateness to measure the workers' capacity and health requirements. They include a questionnaire and biometrical tests, and physical performance tests that measure physical functional capabilities. Furthermore, our job-specific WHS provides occupational physicians with a protocol to increase the worker-behavioural effectiveness of their counselling and to stimulate job-specific preventive actions. The objective of this paper is to describe and clarify our study to evaluate the behavioural effects of this job-specific WHS on workers and occupational physicians.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>The ongoing study of bricklayers and supervisors is a nonrandomised trial to compare the outcome of an intervention (job-specific WHS) group (n = 206) with that of a control (WHS) group (n = 206). The study includes a three-month follow-up. The primary outcome measure is the proportion of participants who have undertaken one or more of the preventive actions advised by their occupational physician in the three months after attending the WHS. A process evaluation will be carried out to determine context, reach, dose delivered, dose received, fidelity, and satisfaction. The present study is in accordance with the TREND Statement.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This study will allow an evaluation of the behaviour of both the workers and occupational physician regarding the preventive actions undertaken by them within the scope of a job-specific WHS.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p><a href="http://www.trialregister.nl/trialreg/admin/rctview.asp?TC=3012">NTR3012</a></p