Zonal asymmetries in middle atmospheric ozone and water vapour derived from Odin satellite data 2001–2010

Stationary wave patterns in middle atmospheric ozone (O<sub>3</sub>) and water vapour (H<sub>2</sub>O) are an important factor in the atmospheric circulation, but there is a strong gap in diagnosing and understanding their configuration and origin. Based on Odin satellite data from 2001 to 2010 we investigate the stationary wave patterns in O<sub>3</sub> and H<sub>2</sub>O as indicated by the seasonal long-term means of the zonally asymmetric components O<sub>3</sub>* = O<sub>3</sub>-[O<sub>3</sub>] and H<sub>2</sub>O* = H<sub>2</sub>O-[H<sub>2</sub>O] ([O<sub>3</sub>], [H<sub>2</sub>O]: zonal means). At mid- and polar latitudes we find a pronounced wave one pattern in both constituents. In the Northern Hemisphere, the wave patterns increase during autumn, maintain their strength during winter and decay during spring, with maximum amplitudes of about 10–20 % of the zonal mean values. During winter, the wave one in O<sub>3</sub>* shows a maximum over the North Pacific/Aleutians and a minimum over the North Atlantic/Northern Europe and a double-peak structure with enhanced amplitude in the lower and in the upper stratosphere. The wave one in H<sub>2</sub>O* extends from the lower stratosphere to the upper mesosphere with a westward shift in phase with increasing height including a jump in phase at upper stratosphere altitudes. In the Southern Hemisphere, similar wave patterns occur mainly during southern spring. By comparing the observed wave patterns in O<sub>3</sub>* and H<sub>2</sub>O* with a linear solution of a steady-state transport equation for a zonally asymmetric tracer component we find that these wave patterns are primarily due to zonally asymmetric transport by geostrophically balanced winds, which are derived from observed temperature profiles. In addition temperature-dependent photochemistry contributes substantially to the spatial structure of the wave pattern in O<sub>3</sub>* . Further influences, e.g., zonal asymmetries in eddy mixing processes, are discussed

ESA's wind Lidar mission ADM-AEOLUS; on-going scientific activities related to calibration, retrieval and instrument operation

The Earth Explorer Atmospheric Dynamics Mission (ADM-Aeolus) of ESA will be the first-ever satellite to provide global observations of wind profiles from space. Its single payload, namely the Atmospheric Laser Doppler Instrument (ALADIN) is a directdetection high spectral resolution Doppler Wind Lidar (DWL), operating at 355 nm, with a fringe-imaging receiver (analysing aerosol and cloud backscatter) and a double-edge receiver (analysing molecular backscatter). In order to meet the stringent mission requirements on wind retrieval, ESA is conducting various science support activities for the consolidation of the on-ground data processing, calibration and sampling strategies. Results from a recent laboratory experiment to study Rayleigh-Brillouin scattering and improve the characterisation of the molecular lidar backscatter signal detected by the ALADIN double-edge Fabry- Perot receiver will be presented in this paper. The experiment produced the most accurate ever-measured Rayleigh-Brillouin scattering profiles for a range of temperature, pressure and gases, representative of Earth’s atmosphere. The measurements were used to validate the Tenti S6 model, which is implemented in the ADM-Aeolus ground processor. First results from the on-going Vertical Aeolus Measurement Positioning (VAMP) study will be also reported. This second study aims at the optimisation of the ADM-Aeolus vertical sampling in order to maximise the information content of the retrieved winds, taking into account the atmospheric dynamical and optical heterogeneity. The impact of the Aeolus wind profiles on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and stratospheric circulation modelling for the different vertical sampling strategies is also being estimated

Servicios urbanos integrados para las ciudades europeas: el ejemplo de Estocolmo

El concepto de servicio hidrometeorológico, climático y medioambiental urbano integrado ha sido propuesto por la OMM para satisfacer las necesidades futuras de sus Miembros, especialmente para lograr los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible de las Naciones Unidas. UrbanSIS en Estocolmo es una excelente demostración de una iniciativa de integración de diversas disciplinas científicas de una forma holística e innovadora. Los modelos meteorológicos, de calidad del aire e hidrológicos se usan para proporcionar datos de alta resolución espacial (1 km) y temporal (15 minutos a 1 hora) para el diseño y la planificación urbanas de manera vanguardista y ecocéntrica. La iniciativa de la OMM se emprendió cooperativamente y en colaboración con otras ciudades –Bolonia y Rotterdam– para desarrollar y generalizar eficientemente su capacidad. La OMM está siguiendo la Guía para los servicios hidrometeorológicos, climáticos y medioambientales urbanos integrados, Parte 1: Concepto y Metodología con ejemplos adicionales de ciudades de muestra con la mayor diversidad económica, geográfica y de riesgos

Interhemispheric dynamical coupling to the southern mesosphere and lower thermosphere

Extent: 14p.Wind observations obtained between 1995 and 2011 using the MF radar at Davis have been used to demonstrate the modifying role the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) plays on some aspects of interhemispheric coupling identified by previous authors. The response of the meridional wind in the southern summer polar MLT to changes in winter stratospheric planetary wave activity is shown to change sign according to the phase of the QBO. The time delay associated with the coupling is also shown to vary with QBO phase, with an eastward QBO providing a more rapid response. Coupling to the MLT meridional winds is strongest in January. Parts of the mechanism currently proposed have been tested using UKMO assimilated observations. The signatures of some aspects of this mechanism are present in the data. However, some differences to the mechanism are also apparent, in particular the effectiveness of the mechanism near the equator. An explanation for the QBO modulation of the MLT wind response to interhemispheric coupling is proposed on the basis of these differences.D. J. Murphy, S. P. Alexander, and R. A. Vincen

Predictability of the coupled troposphere-stratosphere system

Tropospheric predictability is typically limited to about 20 days due to the chaotic nature of weather. The tropospheric variability contains planetary waves which can propagate vertically into the winter stratosphere, where they break and drive a residual meridional circulation. For cases of exceptionally strong planetary wave activity, this circulation can induce a polar stratospheric warming and a subsequent downward propagation of the circulation anomaly to the troposphere. This process provides an increased predictability for the troposphere. The predictability is associated with the zonal mean zonal wind around 60ºN and the Northern Annular Mode, which tends to a negative phase after a stratospheric warming event. The negative Northern Annular Mode phase yields colder temperatures in Mid- and Northern Europe. Thus, the coupled troposphere-stratosphere system improves tropospheric predictability on monthly to seasonal time-scales. This article reviews briefly the observed phenomena, the current theoretical understanding, and the role for numerical weather prediction

Positive definite and mass conserving tracer transport in spectral GCMs

A new scheme that solves the advection-diffusion equation for tracers in a spectral General Circulation Model (GCM) is presented. The main ideas are (1) using a monotonic and smooth functional of the tracer as prognostic variable to ensure positive definite concentrations and continuity of all derivatives and (2) defining an adjustable tracer-mass correction as a multiplication of the tracer in grid space, giving rise to an efficient correction in spectral space. Common standard benchmark tests for two-dimensional horizontal advection using deformational wind fields show that the new scheme is accurate and essentially not diffusive. A three-dimensional test is proposed in order to validate vertical transport. Additionally to standard error norms and global tracer mass, the entropy of mixing is introduced as another conservation constraint and utilized to determine the strength of the mass correction which is a free parameter. The transport scheme is applied in a mechanistic spectral GCM from the surface to the lower thermosphere. It is extended such that the mass correction takes the diffusion and other nonconservative effects explicitly into account. By this method we estimate the mean age of air along with its dependence on the turbulent horizontal Schmidt number

The Use of Uncertainty Quantification for the Empirical Modeling of Wind Turbine Icing

A novel uncertainty quantification method is used to evaluate the impact of uncertainties of parameters within the icing model in the modeling chain for icing-related wind power production loss forecasts. As a first step, uncertain parameters in the icing model were identified from the literature and personal communications. These parameters are the median volume diameter of the hydrometeors, the sticking efficiency for snow and graupel, the Nusselt number, the shedding factor, and the wind erosion factor. The sensitivity of these parameters on icing-related wind power production losses is examined. An icing model ensemble representing the estimated parameter uncertainties is designed using so-called deterministic sampling and is run for two periods over a total of 29 weeks. Deterministic sampling allows an exact representation of the uncertainty and, in future applications, further calibration of these parameters. Also, the number of required ensemble members is reduced drastically relative to the commonly used random-sampling method, thus enabling faster delivery and a more flexible system. The results from random and deterministic sampling are compared and agree very well, confirming the usefulness of deterministic sampling. The ensemble mean of the nine-member icing model ensemble generated with deterministic sampling is shown to improve the forecast skill relative to one single forecast for the winter periods. In addition, the ensemble spread provides valuable information as compared with a single forecast in terms of forecasting uncertainty. However, addressing uncertainties in the icing model alone underestimates the forecast uncertainty, thus stressing the need for a fully probabilistic approach in the modeling chain for wind power forecasts in a cold climate

Short-range solar radiation forecasts over Sweden

In this article the performance for short-range solar radiation forecasts by the global deterministic and ensemble models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is compared with an ensemble of the regional mesoscale model HARMONIE-AROME used by the national meteorological services in Sweden, Norway and Finland. Note however that only the control members and the ensemble means are included in the comparison. The models resolution differs considerably with 18 km for the ECMWF ensemble, 9 km for the ECMWF deterministic model, and 2.5 km for the HARMONIE-AROME ensemble.The models share the same radiation code. It turns out that they all underestimate systematically the Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) for clear-sky conditions. Except for this shortcoming, the HARMONIE-AROME ensemble model shows the best agreement with the distribution of observed Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) and DNI values. During mid-day the HARMONIE-AROME ensemble mean performs best. The control member of the HARMONIE-AROME ensemble also scores better than the global deterministic ECMWF model. This is an interesting result since mesoscale models have so far not shown good results when compared to the ECMWF models.Three days with clear, mixed and cloudy skies are used to illustrate the possible added value of a probabilistic forecast. It is shown that in these cases the mesoscale ensemble could provide decision support to a grid operator in terms of forecasts of both the amount of solar power and its probabilities