Semi-generative modelling: learning with cause and effect features

We consider a case of covariate shift where prior causal inference or expert knowledge has identified some features as effects, and show how this setting, when analysed from a causal perspective, gives rise to a semi-generative modelling framework: P(Y,X_eff|Xcau)

Semi-Supervised Learning, Causality and the Conditional Cluster Assumption

While the success of semi-supervised learning (SSL) is still not fully understood, Sch\"olkopf et al. (2012) have established a link to the principle of independent causal mechanisms. They conclude that SSL should be impossible when predicting a target variable from its causes, but possible when predicting it from its effects. Since both these cases are somewhat restrictive, we extend their work by considering classification using cause and effect features at the same time, such as predicting disease from both risk factors and symptoms. While standard SSL exploits information contained in the marginal distribution of all inputs (to improve the estimate of the conditional distribution of the target given inputs), we argue that in our more general setting we should use information in the conditional distribution of effect features given causal features. We explore how this insight generalises the previous understanding, and how it relates to and can be exploited algorithmically for SSL.Comment: 36th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (2020) (Previously presented at the NeurIPS 2019 workshop "Do the right thing": machine learning and causal inference for improved decision making, Vancouver, Canada.

Volkswagen Autoeuropa

Volkswagen Autoeuropa, its environment and its partners are a model of a new manufacturing philosophy, which sets very high demands on the so-called ’soft factors’ or ‘soft skills’ of every company: Leadership, Motivation, Personnel Development, Work Organization, etc

Human values and attitudes towards immigration and climate change in Germany: the moderating role of challenge and threat perceptions and political ideology

Immigration and climate change are the cause of heated debates among the German public. From a socio psychological perspective, it is crucial to understand which factors shape and influence opinions and attitudes towards these topics. We proposed the human values as developed by Schwartz (1992) as good determinants of attitudes towards immigration and climate change. The present study also examined how challenge and threat perceptions of either immigration or climate change influenced the relationship between human values, namely conservation and self-transcendence, and attitudes towards immigration, or climate change respectively, as well as attitudes towards institutional and social trust. We assumed that challenge and threat perceptions would moderate the tested relationships. Furthermore, we assumed that left- and right-wing ideologies would moderate the relationships in a similar way as challenge and threat perceptions would. We used data from the European Social Survey (ESS), round 7 and 8, from 2014 (N=3045) and from 2016 (N=2852) and conducted several moderation analyses. Our findings did not give substantial support to our assumptions as most of the moderation effects were either non-significant or very weak.A imigração e as mudanças climáticas são a causa de intensos debates entre a sociedade alemã. De uma perspectiva sócio-psicológica, é crucial entender quais os fatores que moldam e influenciam as opiniões e atitudes em relação a estes assuntos. Propomos os valores humanos desenvolvidos por Schwartz (1992) como bons determinantes de atitudes em relação à imigração e às mudanças climáticas. O presente estudo, assim como as percepções de desafio e ameaça da imigração ou das mudanças climáticas, influenciaram a relação entre os valores humanos, ou seja, conservação e autotranscendência e atitudes em relação à imigração ou mudanças climáticas, bem como as atitudes em relação à confiança institucional e social. Presumimos que as percepções de desafio e ameaça moderariam os relacionamentos testados. Além disso, presume-se que as ideologias de esquerda e de direita moderariam os relacionamentos de maneira semelhante às percepções de desafio e ameaça. Utilizando dados do European Social Survey (ESS), rounds 7 e 8, de 2014 (N = 3045) e de 2016 (N = 2852) e conduzimos várias análises de moderação. As descobertas não deram suporte substancial às suposições, já que a maioria dos efeitos de moderação não foram significativos ou foram muito fracos

Hugo von Hofmannsthal und Julius Meier-Graefe : Briefwechsel

In einer kritischen Edition wurde hier der Briefwechsel zwischen Hugo von Hofmannsthal und Julius Meier-Graefe von 1917 bis 1929 in Herausgeberschaft von Ursula Renner abgedruckt, eingeleitet und kommentiert

Electronic Health Records (EHR) and the patient’s empowerment : healthcare management

Healthcare systems will face obstacles in the near future to serve patients demands due to a mismatch in the supply of healthcare services. In order to tackle this problem, it will be important to connect the various sources of health information. The introduction of the Electronic Health Record (EHR) is one step towards a more automated healthcare management system. It enables the physicians to easily store, access, analyse and share information. By granting patients online access to their medical records, a new system evolved. Patient Portals offer secure, web-based patient-provider communication services. Since the Patient Portal is a recent technological innovation, little research has been done until now. This dissertation would like to address the problem, whether the healthcare market is ready for the enrolment of Patient Portals. In order to solve the problem statement, the major success and risk attributes are identified and discussed. A primary and secondary research was conducted to identify these attributes. The primary research involved a survey, which asked healthcare professionals to rate preselected success and risk attributes, according to their perceived importance. The findings of the secondary research result from already existing literature. After comparing the results from each source, it is noticeable that a clear answer is hard to provide, since physicians and patients prefer different features and see different obstacles. Referring to the success attributes, scheduling appointments is a major aspect for physicians and patients. Referring to the risk attributes, the loss of personal interaction will be a key obstacle to overcome.Os sistemas de saúde enfrentarão, num futuro próximo, obstáculos à prestação de cuidados médicos fruto de faltas na oferta dos serviços de saúde. Visando abordar este problema, será importante ligar as várias fontes de informação de saúde. A introdução de Electronic Health Record (EHR) constitui um passo para uma maior automatização dos sistemas de gestão de saúde, permitindo aos médicos uma mais fácil armazenagem, acesso, análise e partilha de informação. Ao possibilitar aos pacientes o acesso online aos seus registos médicos, um novo sistema evoluiu. Com base na web, os portais oferecem serviços de comunicação seguros entre pacientes e prestadores. Uma vez que o Patient Portal (Portal do Paciente) é uma recente inovação tecnológica, existe pouca pesquisa sobre a mesma. Este trabalho pretende abordar o problema da preparação do sector da saúde para a introdução dos Patient Portals. Assim, os mais importantes atributos de sucesso e de risco são identificados e discutidos. A pesquisa primária envolveu um questionário no qual se pedia a profissionais de saúde que avaliassem atributos de sucesso e de risco, previamente selecionados, de acordo com o grau de importância atribuído. Os resultados da pesquisa secundária decorrem da literatura existente. Após comparação dos resultados, é de salientar que é difícil facultar uma resposta clara, dado que médicos e pacientes têm distintas preferências por características e veem diferentes obstáculos. Relativamente aos atributos de sucesso, o agendamento de momentos constitui um aspeto fundamental. Relativamente aos atributos de risco, a perda de interação pessoal será um obstáculo central a ultrapassar

Backtracking Counterfactuals

Counterfactual reasoning -- envisioning hypothetical scenarios, or possible worlds, where some circumstances are different from what (f)actually occurred (counter-to-fact) -- is ubiquitous in human cognition. Conventionally, counterfactually-altered circumstances have been treated as "small miracles" that locally violate the laws of nature while sharing the same initial conditions. In Pearl's structural causal model (SCM) framework this is made mathematically rigorous via interventions that modify the causal laws while the values of exogenous variables are shared. In recent years, however, this purely interventionist account of counterfactuals has increasingly come under scrutiny from both philosophers and psychologists. Instead, they suggest a backtracking account of counterfactuals, according to which the causal laws remain unchanged in the counterfactual world; differences to the factual world are instead "backtracked" to altered initial conditions (exogenous variables). In the present work, we explore and formalise this alternative mode of counterfactual reasoning within the SCM framework. Despite ample evidence that humans backtrack, the present work constitutes, to the best of our knowledge, the first general account and algorithmisation of backtracking counterfactuals. We discuss our backtracking semantics in the context of related literature and draw connections to recent developments in explainable artificial intelligence (XAI)