Political overfishing: Social-economic drivers in TAC setting decisions

Sustainable use of marine resources, as targeted by Ecosystem-Based Fishery Management (EBFM), is a highly ranked policy goal. However, many marine fish stocks are still overused, challenging sustainability goals. Reasons for this policy failure are disputed and they might be manifold, including economic, institutional, and social drivers. We use Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) to empirically determine and quantify the importance of interacting ecological, economic, and social drivers in a political decision making process, i.e. the setting of annual Total Allowable Catch (TAC) limits. GAMs allow non linear relationships between response and explanatory variables and due to their flexibility have successfully been applied to investigate ecosystem dynamics. Here, we use this modeling approach in a novel way to quantify social-economic-ecological feed-backs on policy decisions. European fisheries policy agreed in most cases to TACs higher than scientifically advised. We recorded this deviation for all managed European fish stocks for the time-series 1987-2013. Additionally, we make use of available time-series of socio-economic and ecological variables potentially influencing the decision, including national unemployment rates, stock status, economic growth rates, and employment in fisheries. We show that political decisions on TACs are not only driven by scientific advice on the ecological state of the stock, but that socio-economic variables have a significant effect on TACs – however not related to sound scientific advice. We conclude that scientific advice for a successful implementation of EBFM will have to address socio-economic driving forces more explicitly

Hidden variables in a Dynamic Bayesian Network identify ecosystem level change

EU; The Academy of Finland; Projektträger Jülich (PtJ); Germany; The State Education Development Agency of Latvia; The National Centre for Research and Development, Poland; The Swedish Research Council Formas; BalticEye Stockholm University; foundation BalticSea202

Global Protein Demand, Marine Fish Production and Trade Flows in the World of 2050

Economic drivers of change, such as changes in demand and fishing technology, are as important for the future state of fish stocks as factors influencing ecological processes (Quaas et al. 2016) . Fish and seafood (FaS) are among the most globalized commodities, and markets will continue to globalize in the coming decades. Constantly improving fishing technology may lead to increasing fishing pressure unless management effectiveness is significantly improved. To take world-market interactions into account, we quantify a global demand system for wild-caught FaS, resolved at the large marine ecosystem (LME) scale, using FAO Fishstat data. Demand for domestically caught FaS and FaS imports further depends on population size, per-capita incomes, and supply of other protein-rich food (as substitutes for FaS). Based on scenarios for population and income developments, we use the estimated demand system to derive scenarios of future FaS demand. We feed these scenarios into a global bio-economic model to study the effects of FaS consumption levels allocated by globalized markets on catches and stock development. The fisheries model provides biomass development scenarios per functional group taking into account predator-prey interactions in a stylized fashion. We analyze the effect of improving fisheries management, and the scope of expanding the supply of farmed fish for relieving the pressure on wild capture fisheries. Preliminary results suggest that this scope is limited, as farmed FaS is only an imperfect substitute for wild capture fisheries, in particular for the more wealthy consumers, who are likely to grow in number in the coming decades.Proceedings of the Eighteenth Biennial Conference of the International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade, held July 11-15, 2016 at Aberdeen Exhibition and Conference Center (AECC), Aberdeen, Scotland, UK

A controlled trial of rivaroxaban after transcatheter aortic-valve replacement

Background: whether the direct factor Xa inhibitor rivaroxaban can prevent thromboembolic events after transcatheter aortic-valve replacement (TAVR) is unclear. Methods: we randomly assigned 1644 patients without an established indication for oral anticoagulation after successful TAVR to receive rivaroxaban at a dose of 10 mg daily (with aspirin at a dose of 75 to 100 mg daily for the first 3 months) (rivaroxaban group) or aspirin at a dose of 75 to 100 mg daily (with clopidogrel at a dose of 75 mg daily for the first 3 months) (antiplatelet group). The primary efficacy outcome was the composite of death or thromboembolic events. The primary safety outcome was major, disabling, or life-threatening bleeding. The trial was terminated prematurely by the data and safety monitoring board because of safety concerns. Results: after a median of 17 months, death or a first thromboembolic event (intention-to-treat analysis) had occurred in 105 patients in the rivaroxaban group and in 78 patients in the antiplatelet group (incidence rates, 9.8 and 7.2 per 100 person-years, respectively; hazard ratio with rivaroxaban, 1.35; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01 to 1.81; P = 0.04). Major, disabling, or life-threatening bleeding (intention-to-treat analysis) had occurred in 46 and 31 patients, respectively (4.3 and 2.8 per 100 person-years; hazard ratio, 1.50; 95% CI, 0.95 to 2.37; P = 0.08). A total of 64 deaths occurred in the rivaroxaban group and 38 in the antiplatelet group (5.8 and 3.4 per 100 person-years, respectively; hazard ratio, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.13 to 2.53). Conclusions: in patients without an established indication for oral anticoagulation after successful TAVR, a treatment strategy including rivaroxaban at a dose of 10 mg daily was associated with a higher risk of death or thromboembolic complications and a higher risk of bleeding than an antiplatelet-based strategy. (Funded by Bayer and Janssen Pharmaceuticals; GALILEO ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02556203.)

The Baltic Health Index (BHI) : Assessing the social–ecological status of the Baltic Sea

1. Improving the health of coastal and open sea marine ecosystems represents a substantial challenge for sustainable marine resource management, since it requires balancing human benefits and impacts on the ocean. This challenge is often exacerbated by incomplete knowledge and lack of tools that measure ocean and coastal ecosystem health in a way that allows consistent monitoring of progress towards predefined management targets. The lack of such tools often limits capabilities to enact and enforce effective governance. 2. We introduce the Baltic Health Index (BHI) as a transparent, collaborative and repeatable assessment tool. The Index complements existing, more ecological-oriented, approaches by including a human dimension on the status of the Baltic Sea, an ecosystem impacted by multiple anthropogenic pressures and governed by a multitude of comprehensive national and international policies. Using a large amount of social–ecological data available, we assessed the health of the Baltic Sea for nine goals that represent the status towards set targets, for example, clean waters, biodiversity, food provision, natural products extraction and tourism. 3. Our results indicate that the overall health of the Baltic Sea is suboptimal (a score of 76 out of 100), and a substantial effort is required to reach the management objectives and associated targets. Subregionally, the lowest BHI scores were measured for carbon storage, contaminants and lasting special places (i.e. marine protected areas), albeit with large spatial variation. 4. Overall, the likely future status of all goals in the BHI averaged for the entire Baltic Sea is better than the present status, indicating a positive trend towards a healthier Baltic Sea. However, in some Baltic Sea basins, the trend for specific goals was decreasing, highlighting locations and issues that should be the focus of management priorities. 5. The BHI outcomes can be used to identify both pan-Baltic and subregional scale management priorities and to illustrate the interconnectedness between goals linked by cumulative pressures. Hence, the information provided by the BHI tool and its further development will contribute towards the fulfilment of the UN Agenda 2030 and its Sustainability Development Goals

Leucine Reconstitutes Phagocytosis-Induced Cell Death in E. coli-Infected Neonatal Monocytes—Effects on Energy Metabolism and mTOR Signaling

MΦ differentiate from circulating monocytes (Mo). The reduced ability of neonatal Mo to undergo apoptosis after E. coli infection (phagocytosis-induced cell death (PICD)) could contribute to sustained inflammatory processes. The objective of our study was to investigate whether immune metabolism in Mo can be modified to gain access to pro-apoptotic signaling. To this end, we supplemented Mo from neonates and from adults with the branched amino acid leucine. In neonatal Mo, we observed increased energy production via oxidative phosphorylation (Oxphos) after E. coli infection via Seahorse assay. Leucine did not change phagocytic properties. In neonatal Mo, we detected temporal activation of the AKT and mTOR pathways, accompanied with subsequent activation of downstream targets S6 Kinase (S6K) and S6. FACS analyses showed that once mTOR activation was terminated, the level of anti-apoptotic BCL-2 family proteins (BCL-2; BCL-XL) decreased. Release of cytochrome C and cleavage of caspase-3 indicated involvement of the intrinsic apoptotic pathway. Concomitantly, the PICD of neonatal Mo was initiated, as detected by hypodiploid DNA. This process was sensitive to rapamycin and metformin, suggesting a functional link between AKT, mTOR and the control of intrinsic apoptotic signaling. These features were unique to neonatal Mo and could not be observed in adult Mo. Supplementation with leucine therefore could be beneficial to reduce sustained inflammation in septic neonates

Political overfishing: Social-economic drivers in TAC setting decisions

Sustainable use of marine resources, as targeted by Ecosystem-Based Fishery Management (EBFM), is a highly ranked policy goal. However, many marine fish stocks are still overused, challenging sustainability goals. Reasons for this policy failure are disputed and they might be manifold, including economic, institutional, and social drivers. We use Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) to empirically determine and quantify the importance of interacting ecological, economic, and social drivers in a political decision making process, i.e. the setting of annual Total Allowable Catch (TAC) limits. GAMs allow non linear relationships between response and explanatory variables and due to their flexibility have successfully been applied to investigate ecosystem dynamics. Here, we use this modeling approach in a novel way to quantify social-economic-ecological feed-backs on policy decisions. European fisheries policy agreed in most cases to TACs higher than scientifically advised. We recorded this deviation for all managed European fish stocks for the time-series 1987-2013. Additionally, we make use of available time-series of socio-economic and ecological variables potentially influencing the decision, including national unemployment rates, stock status, economic growth rates, and employment in fisheries. We show that political decisions on TACs are not only driven by scientific advice on the ecological state of the stock, but that socio-economic variables have a significant effect on TACs – however not related to sound scientific advice. We conclude that scientific advice for a successful implementation of EBFM will have to address socio-economic driving forces more explicitly