Modal choice for the driverless city: scenario simulation based on a stated preference survey

The possible future introduction of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) and Shared Autonomous Vehicles (SAVs) raises questions about how they might affect the demand for transport and especially modal choice. In this research, a stated preference (SP) survey and a modelling process using Mixed Logit are proposed to simulate the future market share of AVs/SAVs and how their introduction into the system could change the modal choice, especially in relation to active and public transport modes. An efficient SP survey design has been developed based on the state-of-the-art information and carried out in 2020 among citizens of two medium-sized Southern European cities within a car-intensive region. The design considered different trip purposes (compulsory, leisure), different trip distances, and attributes not taken into account before, such as comfort and the physical characteristics of the terrain for the active modes. The model results suggest that AVs and SAVs were the preferred transport modes for most respondents, accounting for more than 58% of the market share in the scenarios presented. Also, we detected some socioeconomic differences in the propensity to use this mode of transport showing that men living in high-income households and car users were more prone to use autonomous alternatives. The models allowed us to simulate different scenarios, such as experiencing higher costs for using the AV alternative. Policies imposing a higher cost for the AV alternative but lower costs and waiting times for the SAV and public transport alternatives could decrease the AV?s market share favouring more sustainable modes. The above scenario showed that achieving a more sustainable future mobility system considering AVs requires an in-depth transport demand knowledge and adequate transport policies.This research has been developed within the project “Innovative Urban and Transport Planning Tools for the Implementation of New Mobility Systems Based on Autonomous Driving” – AUTONOMOUS (2020–2023) (PID2019-110355RB-I00), funded by the Ministry of Science and Innovation of Spain (MICINN)/ERDF (EU) in the framework of the State Plan for Scientific and Technical Research and Innovation 2017–2020

Impacto de las estrategias para incentivar el uso de la bicicleta en viajes al trabajo : un estudio de caso con empleados de la Companhia Riograndense de Saneamento

This study identifies the most valued factors for potential bicycle users on work trips and evaluate the impact of implementing different strategies to improve bicycle use. We applied an online stated-preference survey from 127 Companhia Riograndense de Saneamento (CORSAN) employees in Porto Alegre (Brazil). Then, we formulated hybrid ordered logit models to estimate the probability of bicycle use under different hypothetical scenarios. The results showed that locker rooms, bicycle parking, bike-sharing systems (bike loaner programs run by the company), training for employees in bicycle use and the presence of bike paths for access to CORSAN all encourage bicycle use. The availability of locker rooms proved to be the most important variable. The joint implementation of locker rooms, bicycle parking and bike-sharing systems (loaner programs) would increase demand by 66%. The strategies discussed in this article can easily be adapted to other contexts where there is a desire to increase shared bicycle commuting to workplaces.Los objetivos de este estudio son identificar los factores más importantes para estimular el uso de la bicicleta en viajes al trabajo y evaluar el impacto de la implantación de diferentes medidas. Los empleados de la Companhia Riograndense de Saneamento (CORSAN) fueron utilizados como estudio de caso en Porto Alegre (Brasil), a través de una encuesta de preferencia declarada. La probabilidad de uso de la bicicleta en diferentes escenarios se estimó mediante modelos híbridos logit ordenados. Los resultados mostraron que la implantación de vestuarios, estacionamiento de bicicletas, sistemas de bicicletas compartidas (programa de préstamos de bicicletas realizado por la empresa), capacitación de los empleados en relación al uso de bicicleta y la presencia de ciclovías para el acceso a CORSAN, fomentan el uso de la bicicleta. La disponibilidad de vestuarios resultó ser la variable más importante. La implementación conjunta de vestuarios, estacionamiento de bicicletas y sistemas de bicicletas compartidas (programas de préstamo) aumentaría la demanda en un 66% en este caso. Los procedimientos adoptados podrían aplicarse fácilmente en otros contextos donde se desee incrementar la proporción de viajes hacia los lugares de trabajo

Levantamientos Topográficos: Equipos Utilizados

El vídeo tiene como objetivo explicar cuáles son los equipos utilizados en topografía y geoinformación, identificando sus componentes y usos.Centro para la Excelencia Docente – CED

Location of speed control cameras on highways: a geospatial analysis

This research proposes a methodology to identify critical sections of highways where the location of speeding control may be beneficial. The method relies on a spatial and statistical analysis of infrastructure risks, along with traffic accident frequency and severity. A relevant feature of this methodology is related to its potential to be used in areas where there are no detailed historical records about traffic crashes, which is common in Global South countries. We applied the methodology to a rural road network in Colombia, where a recent law established that technical criteria should support the location of speed cameras. The case study uses accident information from six years, and risk data from a road safety audit carried out in the area under study. Even though historical records of accidents in the area were not fully available, the methodology allowed prioritising speed camera installations in the zone and identifying the relevant variables to define camera location. The relevant variables were the geometric characteristics of the road, traffic flows, risk factors, and proximity to populated centres. The use of speed controls should be part of a road safety management system, which allows defining camera location according to robust technical criteria

Modelos SARIMA para pronóstico de pasajeros en vuelos nacionales e internacionales en Colombia

The Colombian aviation sector is positioned as the country with the third largest increase in operations at air terminals in Latin America. Sustainable expansion of this sector demands planning methodology based on estimates of forecast passengers’ flows. In this context in operational planning, this paper presents several long-term predictive forecasting models based on domestic and international flight traffic operations reported by Aerocivil since 2005. A Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was conducted. A sequential methodology was performed to select five models from 256 estimated. The (0,1,0)×(0,1,0)12 model showed the best fit in terms of RMSEA 3.1%. The models demonstrate high performance in estimation despite the effects of COVID-19.El sector del transporte aéreo de Colombia se posiciona como el tercer país con mayor incremento de operaciones en las terminales aéreas de América Latina. Para alcanzar un crecimiento sostenible del sector, es necesario contar con metodologías de planificación basadas en estimaciones sobre la previsión de las cantidades de pasajeros. En este contexto de planificación operativa, este trabajo presenta varios modelos de pronóstico predictivo de largo plazo con base a las operaciones en vuelos nacionales e internacionales registradas por Aerocivil desde el año 2005. Se aplicó un enfoque de Modelado de Orden Diferenciado Estacional, Autoregresivo y de Medias Móviles (SARIMA). Se presenta una metodología secuencial para la selección de cinco modelos sobre un total de 256 calculados. El modelo (0,1,0)×(0,1,0)12 resultó ser el más apropiado con una estimación del RMSEA del 3.1%. Los modelos presentan altos rendimientos de estimación a pesar de los efectos causados por la última pandemia COVID-19

Market segmentation for incentivising sustainable transport policies

This paper draws attention to the need for formulating tailored, sustainable transport policies considering heterogeneity in the population regarding their preferences and attitudes. In this regard, we propose a market segmentation for incentivising sustainable transport policies. Our analysis builds from the responses of 1,041 car owners towards environmentally friendly trans- port alternatives in a survey issued in the five largest Colombian metropolitan areas: Bogot ́a, Medellín, Cali, Barranquilla, and Bucaramanga. Using the collected data, we estimated a Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model to evaluate individual attitudes towards the envi- ronment, green transport policies, car use, and technology. A cluster analysis based on the MIMIC results identified three groups: Traditionalists, Green Conscious and All Matters. Results make the contradiction between car attachment and environmental concern evident. The lower the envi- ronmental concern, the higher the attachment to the car. However, the differences between Traditionalists and All Matters are less pronounced. Finally, we proposed sustainable strategies considering the heterogeneities of each group, analysed the implications of developing custom- made actions and marketing strategies for promoting sustainable transport policies, considering the interests and characteristics of each targeted group in the populatio

Modelling with joint choice of ports and countries of origin and destination: application to Colombian ports

Literature has focused on studying port choice independently or as an element of a supply chain without considering the joint selection with the country of origin/destination of the imports/exports. However, the characteristics and location of a port may make it more attractive to mobilise more freight from/to some particular countries rather than others, making the port choice decision dependent on the country of origin/destination of the cargo. This article proposes advanced econometric models to evaluate simultaneously port choice and the country of origin/destination choice for Colombian imports and exports. Findings suggest that for imports and exports domestic freight rate is the most important variable for the joint choice process. Also, for exports, maritime transit time is more relevant than for imports, while for the frequency of shipping lines the opposite is true. The existence of a trade agreement and the gross domestic product per capita also have a significant influence on the election of a country for exports/imports.Programa Jóvenes Investigadores e Innovadores 201

Socioeconomic strata as proxy variable for household income in transportation research. Evaluation for Bogotá, Medellín, Cali and Barranquilla

In Colombia, a socioeconomic stratification (SES) system of households based on the physical characteristics of the dwelling and its surroundings is implemented in order to set subsidies to public services. Many studies use this classification as a proxy variable for the household income, mainly because of the ease to retrieve data. This investigation proposes an evaluation of the SES as an explanatory variable for the household income. Ordered logit regressions were estimated for the cities of Bogotá, Medellín, Cali and Barranquilla, where the dependent variable corresponds to the SES. Even though there is a positive correlation between SES and household income, the relation depends on certain characteristics of the household as it size, vehicle availability and percentage of workers and students. The results were validated by comparing trip generation models. By including the significant attributes from the ordinal regressions, trip generation models with income and SES had similar fit, which suggests that using the SES as a proxy variable for the income, might be appropriate as long as their correspondence is checked according to household characteristicsEn Colombia se ha desarrollado un sistema de estratificación de viviendas basado en las características físicas del inmueble y su entorno, con el fin de establecer tarifas diferenciales a servicios públicos. Diversos estudios de transporte usan esta clasificación como variable sustituta del ingreso del hogar debido a la facilidad relativa para obtener dicha información. Este artículo realiza una evaluación del estrato como variable explicativa del ingreso del hogar desde la perspectiva de estudios de transporte. Se estimaron modelos de regresión logit ordinal para Bogotá, Medellín, Cali y Barranquilla, usando el ingreso como variable dependiente y el estrato del hogar como variable independiente. Se encontró que a pesar de que existe una correlación positiva entre el estrato y los ingresos del hogar, esta relación depende de ciertas características del hogar como su tamaño, la disponibilidad de vehículo y la proporción de trabajadores y estudiantes. Estos resultados se validaron mediante la comparación de modelos de generación de viajes por hogar. Al incluir los atributos significativos de las regresiones ordinales, se obtienen ajustes similares para modelos de generación de viajes con ingreso y estrato, lo que indica que usar el estrato como sustituto del ingreso puede ser adecuado, siempre y cuando se controle previamente la correspondencia entre las variables de las características del hoga

Understanding how individuals perceive changes in the built environment and the transport system after implementing a BRT system. The case of Barranquilla, Colombia

Implementing a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) may impact travel patterns and the activity systems in its surroundings. Such impacts include land-use and environmental changes, capitalisation of land value, and mobility improvements. Even though the literature reports the above impacts extensively, there is a need for more research to understand individual perceptions about these impacts, which may differ geographically and influence the usage level and the acceptance of transportation systems. This paper contributes to filling this gap by assessing how respondents perceive changes in the transport system and the built environment after implementing Transmetro, the BRT system of the Metropolitan Area of Barranquilla, Colombia. The study uses a Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) approach to analyse data from 305 surveys collected in low-income neighbourhoods, including a treatment sub-sample with access and a control sub-sample without access to the BRT. The results suggest an overall positive perception of change in the urban environment after the Transmetro implementation; however, individuals without access to the BRT have an even more positive perception of its impacts than individuals inside the influence area. The perception of the BRT impacts correlates with the perception regarding urban environment changes at the neighbourhood level. Finally, we found that socioeconomics, travel, and accessibility conditions strongly influence the system\u27s impact perceptions

A BWS Application to Identify Factors Affecting User Preferences for Parking Choices at University Campuses

Parking around university campuses has become a major issue in recent decades because of nearby congestion impacts. Objective: To determine the factors influencing parking lot selection, which is crucial to propose adequate parking demand management strategies. Materials and Methods: We evaluate different attributes using a best-worst scaling survey applied at Universidad de la Costa (CUC), Colombia. Using discrete choice modeling techniques, we identified the extent to which selected infrastructure attributes influence parking behavior. Results: Security and cover (roof) availability are the most relevant attributes of parking choice in the case study. Conclusions: Based on our results, we strongly recommend implementing a dynamic pricing rate, roof pricing, removing “reserved spots” and investing in securityEl parqueo en las universidades o sus alrededores se ha convertido en un problema importante, debido a la falta de espacio y su impacto en la congestión de vías cercanas. Objetivo: Determinar los factores que influyen en la elección de parqueaderos, con el fin de proponer estrategias adecuadas para la gestión de estos. Materiales y métodos: Se evaluaron diferentes atributos usando el método de escalamiento por máximas diferencias a través de una encuesta aplicada en la Universidad de la Costa (CUC), Colombia. Luego, a través de modelos de elección discreta, se identificó el grado en que diferentes características de infraestructura determinan la elección del sitio de parqueo. Resultados: La seguridad y la disponibilidad de parqueaderos cubiertos son los atributos más relevantes en este caso. Conclusiones: Con base en los resultados obtenidos, se recomienda implementar políticas de tarifa dinámica, diferenciar precios de parqueaderos cubiertos y descubiertos, eliminar los “parqueaderos reservados” e invertir en tecnología que mejore la seguridad