Estimating interregional trade flows in Andalusia (Spain)

Perhaps, one of the most relevant issues in constructing regional input-output tables is the estimation of interregional trade flows. Hence, the Regional Statistical Office of Andalusia (Spain) is promoting new research on survey-based estimates of trade flows between the own region and the rest of Spain. Especially, survey approach has been seen to result more reliable outcomes (Eding & Nijmeijer, 1998) than non-survey constructs. This paper will focus on survey design features, sample methods, treatment of sampling and non-sampling errors and others aspects concerning data collection and processing in the case of Andalusia (Spain).

Linking cross-impact probabilistic scenarios to input-output models

Forecast, World Economy;Input-Output Models

How to Estimate Unbiased and Consistent input-output Multipliers on the Basis of use and Make Matrices

In the literature, the construction of technical coefficients is linked to flow data (use and make matrices), but stochastics are imposed on the coefficients when multipliers are calculated, by means of the Leontief inverse. Due the nonlinearity of this operation, the multiplier estimates are biased (it is generally argued that the Leontief inverse underestimates input-output multipliers). By going back to the flow data, this paper provides unbiased and consistent employment and output multipliers estimates for the Andalusian economy. Rectangular use and make matrices are accommodated and technical coefficients, the Leontief inverse, and associated problems (such as negative coefficients) are circumvented.Stochastic input-output analysis, employment multipliers, output multipliers, use and make matrices.

The choice of type of input-output table revisited : moving towards the use of supply-use tables in impact analysis

The construction of symmetric input-output tables (SIOTs) is a controversial issue as regards the choice of model to construct both product-by-product and industry-by-industry SIOTs, especially the former ones. However, there has been little attention paid so far by the UN and the Eurostat Systems of National Accounts on the choice of type of SIOT to carry out impact analyses let alone other input-output applications. Concerning the price and quantity models in input-output analysis, this paper identifies severe problems in the correct interpretation of the meaning of their results and proposes the use of supply and use tables instead of SIOTs to solve these problems

Despite a reduction in the labour intensity of European exports, they continue to contribute to employment growth

Increasing the number of exports produced by European countries is a potential route to creating more jobs within the European Union. José Manuel Rueda-Cantuche writes on the impact of exports sent outside of the EU on European job creation. He notes that in addition to creating jobs in manufacturing industries, exports also create jobs in related service industries. Outlining the results of a study on the relationship between exports and employment, he highlights the EU states which are most reliant on extra-EU trade for job creation

Modelos Input-Output y análisis probabilístico de impacto cruzado mediante escenarios

Desde la contribución pionera de W. Leontief en su discurso de la entrega de los premios Nobel en 1973 (Leontief, 1974), los modelos input-output se vienen asociando con modelos a nivel mundial que estiman los impactos medioambientales del crecimiento económico. Más tarde, en el proyecto de investigación de las Naciones Unidas en el que participó W. Leontief junto con Carter y Petri (Leontief, Carter y Petri, 1977) también introdujo el concepto de escenarios entendiendo como tales los posibles desarrollos futuros de la economía mundial y utilizando modelos input-output para evaluar los impactos medioambientales y sus consecuencias económicas en términos cuantitativos. Sin embargo, si el objetivo principal de la ciencia social consiste en mejorar los procesos de toma de decisiones relacionadas con aspectos sociales, necesitamos otros métodos que integren las opiniones de expertos sobre sistemas globales a través del conocimiento del modo de funcionar de unos subsistemas dados de la misma realidad. En este sentido, el análisis de impacto cruzado se convierte en un método embriónico de potencial interés. Este artículo se centra en diseñar y ofrecer una incipiente posibilidad de vincular los métodos de análisis de impacto cruzado para escenarios probabilísticos junto con un modelo input-output mundial de contabilidad social (incluyendo asimismo aspectos medioambientales). Sus principales objetivos son los de mejorar los procesos de toma de decisiones a nivel mundial hacia un desarrollo sostenible, así como hacia otros aspectos situados en el corazón de las preocupaciones de la sociedad en general, siendo capaz de adelantarse a los futuros sucesos y consecuencias de la actividad humana sobre la economía global y la sociedad en su conjunto. _______________________________________Since the pioneering contribution by W. Leontief in his 1973 Nobel Prize lecture (Leontief, 1974) input-output models have been often associated to world models attempting to estimate global environment impacts of economic growth. Leontief, Carter and Petri (1977) introduced also the concept of scenarios regarding possible future developments of the world economy, and used their input-output models to quantify the environmental impacts and related economic consequences. However, if a major objective of social science is to improve decision-making processes related to social issues, we need methods for integrating these expert opinions about the global systems with the knowledge of the functioning of given subsystems of the same reality. In this sense, cross-impact analysis becomes an embryonic method of potential interest. This paper is concentrated on the possibility of linking cross-impact methods for probabilistic scenarios with world social accounting models including environmental issues, with the main purposes of improving global decision-making processes towards sustainable development and other issues that are placed at the centre of society’s concerns, and of being capable to advance future events and future impacts of human activity on the global economy and society at large

The relevance of multi-country input-output tables in measuring emissions trade balance of countries : the case of Spain

As part of national accounts, input-output tables are becoming crucial statistical tools to study theeconomic, social and environmental impacts of globalization and international trade. In particular,global input-output tables extend the national dimension to the international dimension by relatingindividual countries' input-output tables among each other, thus providing an opportunity to bal-ance the global economy as a whole. Concerning emissions of greenhouse gases, the relativeposition that countries hold among their main trade partners at the global level is a key issue interms of international climate negotiations.With this purpose, we show that (official) Multi-countryinput-output tables are crucial to analyse the greenhouse gas emission trade balance of individualcountries. Spain has a negative trade emissions balance for all three gases analysed, being themost negative balances those associated to the bilateral trade with China, Russia, United Statesand the rest of the European Union as a whole

Factors affecting entrepreneurial intention levels

Entrepreneurship is becoming a very relevant instrument to promote economic growth and development in different regional and national economies. However, social scientists have not still agreed on the determinants of the decision to become an entrepreneur. Therefore, there is some concern that policies may not be sufficiently efficient in achieving this objective. From a psychological point of view, the intention to become an entrepreneur has been described as the single best predictor of actual behaviour (Ajzen, 1991; Kolvereid, 1996). Hence, some studies have started to analyse the entrepreneurial intention and its determinants (Krueger et al., 2000) but however, methodologies and research instruments used so far differ widely. Then, the availability of a validated instrument to measure abilities, attitudes and intentions towards entrepreneurship could be of much help. In this paper, we use an Entrepreneurial Intention Questionnaire (EIQ), which has been recently validated, to measure entrepreneurial intentions in a sample of students from different Spanish universities. After a brief description of the characteristics and psychometric properties of the EIQ, most important results are discussed. In particular, we pay attention to the influence of different personal and family variables on the entrepreneurial intention level. These variables could be considered as belonging to the institutional environment of each territory. Differences in institutions -in a broad sense- may be a very relevant factor to explain divergent entrepreneurial activity levels. Results show how these external variables affect intention and, as a result actual entrepreneurial behaviour.

Will China comply with its 2020 carbon intensity commitment?

At the Conference of the Parties held in Copenhagen in 2009 (COP15), the Chinese government announced its 2020 commitment to reduce the carbon intensity of the Chinese economy to 40–45% of its 2005 level. A number of analysts have criticised this target, indicating that these reductions can be achieved without the implementation of any active climate change policy. In this paper, we test this argument using a combined input–output based econometric projection approach and the World Input–Output Database (WIOD). Our results show that the projected carbon intensity for 2020 is likely to be 50% lower than the carbon intensity of 2005, without additional active climate change policy measures performed by the Chinese government. On top of it, our study indicates that the total volume of CO2 emissions would be by 2020 seven times the volume of the year 2005

The Construction of input-output Coefficients Matrices in an Axiomatic Context: Some Further Considerations

Kop Jansen and ten Raa (1990) established a purely theoretical solution to the problem of selecting a model for the construction of coefficients on the basis of make and use tables. In an axiomatic context, they singled out the so-called commodity technology model as the best one according to some desirable properties. The aim of this paper is to delineate the restrictions on the relevant data sets that ensure fulfillment of the desirable properties by other models used by statistical offices.Input-output analysis, technical coefficients